Marseille vs Toulouse• Ligue 1, France

#62.4:1.62-0FT01/11 · Orange Vélodrome, Marseille2.0:1.2#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.96DAFX4.30BTN23.901XBMargin5.0%Books10Markets99Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 1 Nov 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.97	4.07	3.80	1.6%
Betano	1.95	4.25	3.60	2.6%
Pinnacle	1.95	4.02	3.77	2.7%
Dafabet	1.92	4.00	3.70	4.1%
Marathonbet	1.92	3.96	3.70	4.4%
Bet365	1.90	4.10	3.60	4.8%
BetVictor	1.87	4.00	3.60	6.3%
Betfair	1.87	3.90	3.60	6.9%
William Hill	1.91	3.75	3.50	7.6%
SBO	1.94	3.58	3.19	10.8%
Best of all books	1.97	4.25	3.80	0.6%
Average	1.92	3.96	3.61	5.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MarseilleToulouse

Last 10#6Table position#111.67Points per game1.119Form pts · last 582.4Goals for · last 52.01.6Goals against · last 51.255Attack rating4543Defence rating5750Form rating5071H2H rating2943Goals model5753Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 2 Nov 00:01 UTC

Marseille

4W 0D 6L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

1 Nov	H	Toulouse	2-0	W
25 Oct	H	Le Havre	4-3	W
22 Oct	A	Sturm Graz	0-1	L
18 Oct	A	Angers	5-2	W
15 Oct	H	Olympiakos Piraeus	0-1	L
11 Oct	A	Estac Troyes	2-0	W
20 Sep	H	Paris Saint Germain	1-2	L
17 Sep	A	Beşiktaş	1-4	L
11 Sep	A	Rennes	0-1	L
6 Sep	H	Paris FC	2-3	L

Toulouse

2W 4D 4L · goals 15:16 · per match 1.5 for, 1.6 against

25 Oct	H	Estac Troyes	0-0	D
16 Oct	A	Le Mans	3-0	W
10 Oct	A	Monaco	2-2	D
3 Oct	H	PAU	2-3	L
19 Sep	H	Le Havre	3-2	W
12 Sep	A	Lorient	2-2	D
3 Sep	H	Lille	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Stade Brestois 29	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Lyon	0-2	L
15 Aug	H	Hamburger SV	1-2	L

Head to head

18Marseille wins

12draws

2Toulouse wins

32 meetings · goals 62:29 · last 10: 6W 4D 0L for Marseille

7 Mar 2026Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse0-1Marseille
4 Mar 2026Coupe de France	Coupe de France	Marseille2-2Toulouse
29 Nov 2025Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille2-2Toulouse
6 Apr 2025Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille3-2Toulouse
31 Aug 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse1-3Marseille
21 Apr 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse2-2Marseille
17 Sep 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille0-0Toulouse
19 Feb 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse2-3Marseille
29 Dec 2022Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille6-1Toulouse
8 Feb 2020Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Marseille1-0Toulouse

Ligue 1 tableLigue 1updated 2 Nov 00:40 UTC

In the Ligue 1 table, Marseille sit 6th with 15 points from 9 games, while Toulouse are 11th with 10 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	9	6	2	1	21:10	+11	20
2	Lille	9	5	3	1	12:6	+6	18
3	Lyon	9	5	2	2	15:7	+8	17
4	Paris FC	9	5	2	2	16:10	+6	17
5	Rennes	9	5	1	3	20:19	+1	16
6	Marseille	9	5	0	4	20:13	+7	15
7	Monaco	9	4	3	2	12:10	+2	15
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	13:12	+1	14
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	16:13	+3	13
10	Lorient	8	3	3	2	7:6	+1	12
11	Toulouse	9	2	4	3	12:13	-1	10
12	Strasbourg	9	3	1	5	17:19	-2	10
13	Auxerre	9	3	1	5	13:23	-10	10
14	Stade Brestois 29	8	2	3	3	14:12	+2	9
15	Angers	9	2	2	5	9:17	-8	8
16	Estac Troyes	9	2	2	5	7:16	-9	8
17	Le Mans	9	1	4	4	11:18	-7	7
18	Le Havre	9	0	2	7	9:20	-11	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg150%1.92X24%3.96226%3.61

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.90 → 1.92 +1.1%X3.89 → 3.99 +2.6%23.62 → 3.60 -0.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.50	2.70	3.7%
Betano	1.52	2.62	4.0%
Bet365	1.50	2.62	4.8%
1xBet	1.50	2.57	5.6%
Betfair	1.44	2.60	7.9%
Marathonbet	1.46	2.49	8.7%
BetVictor	1.46	2.47	9.0%
Best of all books	1.52	2.70	2.8%
Average	1.48	2.58	6.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.50	2.60	5.1%
Betfair	1.40	2.80	7.1%
Betano	1.47	2.55	7.2%
1xBet	1.45	2.59	7.6%
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.45	2.55	8.2%
BetVictor	1.40	2.70	8.5%
Best of all books	1.50	2.80	2.4%
Average	1.44	2.63	7.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Marseille 45%Draw 45%Toulouse 10%

The statistical model rated Marseille at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Toulouse at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.92 | 3.96 | 3.61, which imply roughly 52.1% for a Marseille win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligue 1 table: Marseille are 6th (15 pts, 20-13 goals), Toulouse 11th (10 pts, 12-13).

Over their last five matches, Marseille averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Toulouse averaged 2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Marseille or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Goalkeeper

1J. de Lange

Defence

22T. Weah
4C. Egan-Riley
21N. Aguerd
33Emerson

Midfield

6T. Nnadi
23P. Højbjerg
77A. Harit
8H. Abdelli
14Igor Paixão

Attack

9A. Gouiri

Substitutes (9)

92T. Vermot
74K. Bezahaf
7A. Gomes
25U. Garcia
42Nouhoum Kamissoko
19G. Kondogbia
18B. Meité
11N. Maupay
43T. Mmadi

Toulouse

4-4-2

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou

Goalkeeper

16G. Restes

Defence

94I. Diallo
3M. McKenzie
2R. Nicolaisen
12C. Tapé

Midfield

15A. Dønnum
23C. Cásseres
14N. Sigur
8T. Jørgensen

Attack

13J. Russell-Rowe
20C. Tengstedt

Substitutes (9)

5S. Koumbassa
9S. Hidalgo
1T. Collin
37Y. Azizi
18M. Amougou
11S. Oppong
31N. Schmidt
6A. Vossah
7Julián Vignolo

Match Statistics

MarseilleToulouse

1.12Expected Goals1.6

400Passes accurate516

7Shots insidebox10

6Shots outsidebox4

4Blocked Shots3

14Free Kicks14

3Shots on Goal7

6Goalkeeper Saves1

6Shots off Goal4

1Offsides4

478Total passes610

13Total Shots14

2Yellow Cards1

4Corner Kicks3

14Fouls14

0Red Cards0

43%Ball Possession57%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.92	3.96	3.61

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.28	1.87	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.44	2.64

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.44	2.63

1st half

1	X	2
2.37	2.44	3.84

2nd half

1	X	2
2.17	2.82	3.52

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.88	13.5	27.5
HT X	5.37	6.68	8.40
HT 2	20.0	13.8	5.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.66	19.3	2.27

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	14.5
1.5	1.13	5.37
2.5	1.48	2.58
3.5	2.23	1.66
4.5	3.69	1.26
5.5	6.79	1.08
6.5	11.4	1.03
7.5	17.1	1.02
8.5	31.3	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.95
1.25	1.07	6.57
1.75	1.14	4.64
2	1.20	4.20
2.25	1.34	3.08
2.75	1.60	2.29
3	1.76	2.07
3.25	2.00	1.83
3.75	2.54	1.51
4	3.11	1.36
4.25	3.36	1.30
4.75	4.54	1.16
5	6.01	1.10
5.25	6.21	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.87	1.40
-1	2.57	1.51
-0.75	2.15	1.71
-0.5	1.91	1.92
-0.25	1.67	2.19
0	1.45	2.74

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	11.3	1.02
-3	9.95	1.02
-2.5	6.01	1.10
-2.25	5.69	1.11
-2	5.32	1.14
-1.75	3.83	1.23
-1.5	3.18	1.34
+0.25	1.35	3.08
+0.5	1.28	3.54
+0.75	1.18	4.35
+1	1.10	6.31
+1.25	1.07	6.71
+1.5	1.07	7.13
+2.5	1.01	13.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.09	6.60
2.5	1.26	3.60
3.5	1.65	2.17
4.5	2.23	1.62
5.5	3.10	1.34
6.5	4.60	1.17
7.5	6.80	1.08
8.5	9.25	1.04
9.5	11.5	1.02

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.34	3.11
4	1.91	1.90
5	3.11	1.34

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	13.0
4.5	1.03	10.5
5.5	1.05	6.64
6.5	1.14	4.47
7.5	1.29	3.05
8.5	1.58	2.24
9.5	1.98	1.78
10.5	2.50	1.46
11.5	3.29	1.25
12.5	4.58	1.13
13.5	6.27	1.06
14.5	8.50	1.05
15.5	10.5	1.03
16.5	12.5	1.01
17.5	14.0	1.01

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.06	5.22
7	1.16	3.69
7.75	1.33	2.83
8	1.40	2.68
8.25	1.47	2.39
8.75	1.65	2.08
9	1.77	1.99
9.25	1.89	1.85
9.75	2.13	1.62
10	2.30	1.56
10.25	2.47	1.45
10.75	2.86	1.33
11	2.87	1.31
11.25	3.34	1.24
12	3.69	1.16
13	4.85	1.08

Next Ligue 1 matches

2 Nov

Lorient – Stade Brestois 29

All Ligue 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Ligue 1 results

1 Nov	Lyon 2-0 Angers
1 Nov	Paris FC 3-1 Monaco
1 Nov	Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre
31 Oct	Estac Troyes 2-0 Le Mans
30 Oct	Lille 1-0 Lens
30 Oct	Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain