OddsFilter

Penarol vs Progreso• Primera División, Uruguay

#11.8:0.821:30Today · Montevideo1.6:1.6#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.42DAFX4.80DAF28.00BFRMargin at best3.8%Books10Markets88Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 12:34 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Dafabet1.424.707.405.2%
Pinnacle1.404.887.425.4%
Bet3651.384.337.009.8%
BetVictor1.364.337.5010.0%
William Hill1.364.507.0010.0%
Betano1.404.256.6010.1%
1xBet1.334.457.7510.6%
Marathonbet1.324.457.4011.7%
Betfair1.304.408.0012.2%
SBO1.363.986.4714.1%
Best of all books1.424.888.003.4%
Average1.364.437.259.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PenarolProgreso
Last 10#1Table position#162.00Points per game0.9011Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 51.60.8Goals against · last 51.653Attack rating4767Defence rating3359Form rating41100H2H rating072Goals model2867Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 20:31 UTC

Penarol

6W 3D 1L · goals 17:8 · per match 1.7 for, 0.8 against

4 OctARacing Montevideo1-0W
30 SepAAtletico Torque1-1D
26 SepHBoston River2-1W
24 SepADanubio1-1D
19 SepACerro2-1W
13 SepHAlbion FC3-1W
5 SepADanubio4-0W
2 SepAAtenas2-2D
30 AugHClub Nacional0-1L
26 AugHAtletico Torque1-0W

Progreso

4W 0D 6L · goals 10:14 · per match 1.0 for, 1.4 against

3 OctALiverpool Montevideo2-3L
26 SepHRacing Montevideo2-1W
19 SepABoston River2-1W
16 SepHClub Nacional0-1L
13 SepHCerro1-3L
7 SepAAlbion FC1-0W
3 SepAAlbion FC1-2L
29 AugHDanubio1-0W
26 AugHCA River Plate0-2L
23 AugAClub Nacional0-1L

Head to head

13Penarol wins
4draws
0Progreso wins

17 meetings · goals 31:9 · last 10: 9W 1D 0L for Penarol

4 Apr 2026Primera DivisiónPrimera DivisiónProgreso0-2Penarol
1 Aug 2025Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraPenarol2-1Progreso
1 Feb 2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaProgreso1-3Penarol
27 Nov 2024Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraProgreso1-5Penarol
22 Jun 2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaProgreso0-2Penarol
23 May 2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaPenarol3-1Progreso
25 Nov 2021Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraProgreso0-0Penarol
14 Aug 2021Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaPenarol1-0Progreso
25 Mar 2021Primera División - ClausuraPrimera División - ClausuraProgreso0-2Penarol
6 Oct 2020Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - AperturaPenarol2-1Progreso

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 10 Oct 20:31 UTC

In the Primera División table, Penarol sit 1st with 62 points from 31 games, while Progreso are 16th with 28 points from 31.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Penarol31196650:25+2562
2Deportivo Maldonado32178750:28+2259
3Atletico Torque32176953:37+1657
4Racing Montevideo311411636:25+1153
5Club Nacional311641147:38+952
6Liverpool Montevideo321311843:31+1250
7Wanderers31148940:36+450
8Central Espanol311081332:42-1038
9Albion FC311071441:42-137
10Juventud319101235:39-437
11Cerro321061626:47-2136
12Defensor Sporting328111330:39-935
13Cerro Largo31891429:36-733
14Boston River31871629:42-1331
15Danubio325141326:41-1529
16Progreso31841927:46-1928

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg167%1.37X21%4.41213%7.23

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

7 Oct 00:029 Oct 04:511 1.37X 4.412 7.23
11.34 → 1.37 +2.2%X4.54 → 4.41 -2.9%27.58 → 7.23 -4.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.911.934.2%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
SBO1.851.935.9%
Betano1.831.955.9%
Betfair1.851.858.1%
BetVictor1.811.869.0%
1xBet1.801.879.0%
Marathonbet1.801.879.0%
Best of all books1.911.953.6%
Average1.841.907.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair2.201.627.2%
Bet3652.101.677.5%
William Hill2.101.677.5%
Betano2.071.678.2%
BetVictor2.101.658.2%
1xBet2.091.658.5%
Marathonbet2.091.639.2%
Best of all books2.201.675.3%
Average2.111.658.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Penarol 45%Draw 45%Progreso 10%

The statistical model rates Penarol at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Progreso at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.37 | 4.41 | 7.23, which imply roughly 73% for a Penarol win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Penarol are 1st (62 pts, 50-25 goals), Progreso 16th (28 pts, 27-46).

Over their last five matches, Penarol averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Progreso averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Penarol or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Penarol

3-4-2-1

Coach: D. Aguirre

Goalkeeper

  • 29W. Aguerre

Defence

  • 6L. Ferreira
  • 2G. Pezzella
  • 34N. Herrera
  • 5E. Remedi
  • 26Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat

Midfield

  • 8N. Fernández

Attack

  • 7J. Cabrera
  • 11C. Jaime
  • 32L. Umpiérrez
  • 19M. Arezo
Substitutes (10)
  • 28I. Alegre
  • 9F. Batista
  • 1S. Britos
  • 13E. Darias
  • 80F. González
  • 99A. Hernández
  • 21J. Trindade
  • 3M. Lemos
  • 27L. Hernández
  • 33J. Rodríguez

Progreso

4-2-3-1

Coach: Tabaré Silva

Goalkeeper

  • 1R. Bacchia

Defence

  • 24E. Álvarez
  • 6M. Saravia
  • 40A. Cougo

Midfield

  • 5A. Pinheiro
  • 25R. Cristóbal

Attack

  • 15M. Martin
  • 17F. de León
  • 10N. López
  • 7A. Ocampo
  • 8M. Juambeltz
Substitutes (10)
  • 2S. Cardozo
  • 13H. Carroso
  • 30Agustin Codagnone
  • 23M. Copelotti
  • 12L. Fernández
  • 26Juan Oliva
  • 18G. Silva
  • 20gary silva
  • 27G. Silva
  • 21S. Bruschi

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.364.437.25

Double chance

1XX212
1.062.821.15

Draw no bet

12
1.125.63

Both teams to score

YesNo
2.111.65

1st half

1X2
1.872.347.14

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3311.63.58

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.5
1.51.263.50
2.51.841.90
3.53.111.33
4.56.011.10
5.511.31.03
6.521.31.01
7.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.82
11.018.40
1.251.124.70
1.751.293.06
21.402.68
2.251.612.17
2.752.041.68
32.421.50
3.252.671.38
3.753.581.21
44.801.12
4.255.101.10
4.756.051.06
58.401.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.752.471.48
-1.52.131.66
-1.251.881.85
-11.602.20
-0.751.452.55
-0.51.402.94
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.758.001.02
-3.57.101.04
-3.256.751.04
-36.401.05
-2.754.791.14
-2.53.691.22
-2.253.501.26
-23.151.32
-0.251.233.76
01.095.75
+0.251.086.30
+0.51.107.00

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.066.40
6.51.174.28
7.51.352.88
8.51.662.10
9.52.091.66
10.52.811.37
11.53.701.20
12.55.501.09
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
51.035.95
5.751.075.28
61.114.27
6.251.163.98
6.751.273.18
71.262.93
7.251.412.60
7.751.352.79
81.512.41
8.251.502.34
8.751.702.03
91.961.79
9.251.891.77
9.752.141.57
102.551.44
10.253.221.26
10.753.881.17
113.501.18
11.254.861.10
124.671.08
135.871.04