Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi• Premier League, Ethiopia

#140.0:1.00-0FTToday1.0:1.0#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.87PINX2.70B36522.80BVCMargin at best7.6%Books9Markets40Rating65 · 35Exp. goals L51.5

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 06:42 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	2.88	2.63	2.75	9.1%
Dafabet	2.85	2.55	2.80	10.0%
Bet365	2.75	2.70	2.70	10.4%
Pinnacle	2.90	2.46	2.83	10.5%
Betano	2.82	2.55	2.77	10.8%
Betfair	2.70	2.63	2.75	11.4%
1xBet	2.80	2.55	2.69	12.1%
Marathonbet	2.80	2.55	2.69	12.1%
William Hill	2.80	2.40	2.80	13.1%
Best of all books	2.90	2.70	2.83	6.9%
Average	2.81	2.56	2.75	11.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Mebrat HaylNegelle Arsi

Last 10#14Table position#100.00Points per game1.008Form pts · last 580.0Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 51.00Attack rating10050Defence rating500Form rating10080H2H rating200Goals model10065Overall rating35

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 11:01 UTC

Mebrat Hayl

3W 3D 4L · goals 10:10 · per match 1.0 for, 1.0 against

9 Oct	H	Adama Kenema	0-1	L
5 Jul	A	Sidama Bunna	1-0	W
28 Jun	H	Awassa Kenema	1-1	D
22 Jun	A	Welayta Dicha	2-1	W
16 Jun	H	Mekelle Kenema	0-0	D
30 May	A	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1-2	L
20 May	H	Dire Dawa Kenema	1-1	D
16 May	A	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1-2	L
10 May	H	Fasil Ketema	3-1	W
5 May	A	Suhul Shire	0-1	L

Negelle Arsi

4W 4D 2L · goals 11:11 · per match 1.1 for, 1.1 against

10 Oct	A	Kedus Giorgis	1-1	D
1 Jul	A	Mekelle Kenema	0-3	L
26 Jun	H	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2-0	W
20 Jun	A	Sidama Bunna	1-1	D
15 Jun	H	Awassa Kenema	2-1	W
4 Jun	A	Welayta Dicha	0-0	D
21 May	H	Suhul Shire	0-0	D
14 May	A	Mekelakeya	0-4	L
11 May	H	Dire Dawa Kenema	3-0	W
6 May	A	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	2-1	W

Head to head

1Mebrat Hayl wins

1draws

0Negelle Arsi wins

2 meetings · goals 2:0 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Mebrat Hayl

15 Mar 2026Premier League	Premier League	Negelle Arsi0-2Mebrat Hayl
7 Nov 2025Premier League	Premier League	Mebrat Hayl0-0Negelle Arsi

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 16 Oct 14:01 UTC

In the Premier League table, Mebrat Hayl sit 14th with 0 points from 1 games, while Negelle Arsi are 10th with 1 points from 1.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ethiopian Medhin	1	1	0	0	2:0	+2	3
2	Mekelakeya	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
3	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
4	Adama Kenema	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
5	Bahardar	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
6	Sheger Ketema	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
7	Kedus Giorgis	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
8	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
9	Halaba Ketema	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
10	Negelle Arsi	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
11	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
12	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
13	Awassa Kenema	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
14	Mebrat Hayl	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
15	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
16	Ethiopia Bunna	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
17	Hadiya Hosaena	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	0	0	1	0:2	-2	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg132%2.83X35%2.55233%2.75

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.68 → 2.78 +3.7%X2.73 → 2.60 -4.8%22.69 → 2.74 +1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	3.40	1.30	6.3%
Betfair	3.30	1.29	7.8%
BetVictor	3.50	1.25	8.6%
1xBet	3.28	1.25	10.5%
Marathonbet	3.28	1.25	10.5%
Best of all books	3.50	1.30	5.5%
Average	3.35	1.27	8.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.40	1.50	8.3%
BetVictor	2.55	1.44	8.7%
1xBet	2.47	1.46	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.47	1.44	9.9%
William Hill	2.45	1.44	10.3%
Best of all books	2.55	1.50	5.9%
Average	2.47	1.46	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mebrat Hayl 10%Draw 45%Negelle Arsi 45%

The statistical model rated Mebrat Hayl at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Negelle Arsi at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.83 | 2.55 | 2.75, which imply roughly 39.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Mebrat Hayl are 14th (0 pts, 0-1 goals), Negelle Arsi 10th (1 pts, 1-1).

Over their last five matches, Mebrat Hayl averaged 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Negelle Arsi averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Negelle Arsi and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.81	2.56	2.75

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.35	1.35	1.41

Draw no bet

1	2
1.85	1.82

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.47	1.46

1st half

1	X	2
3.79	1.71	3.72

2nd half

1	X	2
3.38	1.91	3.26

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.77	16.3	45.6
HT X	5.88	3.34	5.80
HT 2	45.6	16.4	4.78

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.26	4.56	2.19

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.12	5.03
1.5	1.75	1.95
2.5	3.35	1.27
3.5	7.53	1.04
4.5	19.0	1.01

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.18	4.00
1	1.26	3.35
1.25	1.50	2.35
1.75	2.00	1.69
2	2.49	1.44
2.25	2.85	1.35
2.75	4.21	1.15
3	6.30	1.06
3.25	6.80	1.04
3.75	8.70	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.82	1.37
-0.25	2.34	1.51
0	1.88	1.83
+0.25	1.54	2.28
+0.5	1.38	2.76
+0.75	1.23	3.52

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.90	1.01
-1.5	7.30	1.03
-1.25	6.70	1.05
-1	5.95	1.07
-0.75	3.61	1.22
+1	1.08	5.70
+1.25	1.05	6.40
+1.5	1.04	7.10
+1.75	1.01	8.50

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
7.5	1.74	2.00
8	2.00	1.80