Cerrito vs 
La Luz• Segunda División, Uruguay
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 25 Sep 16:31 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 9.1% |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.00 | 3.22 | 9.2% |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.25 | 10.6% |
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 2.96 | 3.21 | 10.8% |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 11.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 2.96 | 3.12 | 12.1% |
| Best of all books | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 6.0% |
| Average | 2.17 | 3.02 | 3.20 | 10.4% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:21 UTC
Cerrito
4W 3D 3L · goals 15:12 · per match 1.5 for, 1.2 against
| 10 Oct | H | Tacuarembo | 2-1 | W |
| 7 Oct | H | Wanderers | 2-2 | D |
| 4 Oct | A | Plaza Colonia | 3-1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | La Luz | 1-2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Wanderers | 3-1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | CA River Plate | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Atenas | 0-0 | D |
| 10 Sep | A | Cerro | 2-0 | W |
| 5 Sep | H | Paysandu | 1-2 | L |
| 2 Sep | H | Deportivo Maldonado | 0-2 | L |
La Luz
3W 3D 4L · goals 9:12 · per match 0.9 for, 1.2 against
| 11 Oct | H | Plaza Colonia | 1-1 | D |
| 4 Oct | H | CA River Plate | 3-2 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Cerrito | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Atenas | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Paysandu | 1-0 | W |
| 4 Sep | H | Sportivo Huracan | 1-3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Uruguay Montevideo | 0-0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | Oriental | 0-2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | Colón | 1-2 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | Fenix | 0-0 | D |
Head to head
6 meetings · goals 3:10 · last 6: 1W 3D 2L for Cerrito
| 21 Jun 2026Segunda División | Segunda División | La Luz2-0Cerrito |
| 18 Apr 2026Segunda División | Segunda División | Cerrito0-0La Luz |
| 16 Aug 2025Segunda División | Segunda División | Cerrito1-0La Luz |
| 24 May 2025Segunda División | Segunda División | La Luz2-2Cerrito |
| 14 Sep 2024Segunda División | Segunda División | Cerrito0-0La Luz |
| 31 May 2024Segunda División | Segunda División | La Luz6-0Cerrito |
Segunda División table1st Phaseupdated 17 Oct 03:11 UTC
In the Segunda División table, Cerrito sit 8th with 9 points from 6 games, while La Luz are 9th with 7 points from 6.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | +6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:5 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:8 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:7 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:7 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:13 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 3 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.4% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 6.2% |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 1.59 | 6.6% |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 1.57 | 8.1% |
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 1.56 | 9.1% |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 1.56 | 9.1% |
| Betano | 2.12 | 1.57 | 10.9% |
| Best of all books | 2.35 | 1.59 | 5.4% |
| Average | 2.24 | 1.57 | 8.3% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 1.78 | 8.8% |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 1.75 | 9.8% |
| Betano | 1.83 | 1.78 | 10.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.90 | 1.78 | 8.8% |
| Average | 1.88 | 1.77 | 9.8% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Cerrito at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and La Luz at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.19 | 2.99 | 3.17, which imply roughly 45.7% for a Cerrito win versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Segunda División table: Cerrito are 8th (9 pts, 8-8 goals), La Luz 9th (7 pts, 5-6).
Over their last five matches, Cerrito averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; La Luz averaged 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Cerrito or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | 3.02 | 3.20 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | 1.58 | 1.29 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.54 | 2.30 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.88 | 1.77 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.89 | 1.94 | 3.95 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | 7.00 | 2.40 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.07 | 6.08 |
| 1.5 | 1.38 | 2.69 |
| 2.5 | 2.24 | 1.57 |
| 3.5 | 3.95 | 1.18 |
| 4.5 | 7.35 | 1.07 |
| 5.5 | 23.0 | 1.01 |
10 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.06 | 6.05 |
| 1.25 | 1.22 | 3.50 |
| 1.75 | 1.48 | 2.38 |
| 2 | 1.66 | 2.05 |
| 2.25 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| 2.75 | 2.62 | 1.40 |
| 3 | 3.37 | 1.25 |
| 3.25 | 3.74 | 1.19 |
| 3.75 | 4.87 | 1.11 |
| 4 | 7.90 | 1.02 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -0.75 | 2.60 | 1.41 |
| -0.5 | 2.22 | 1.62 |
| -0.25 | 1.87 | 1.84 |
| 0 | 1.56 | 2.25 |
| +0.25 | 1.39 | 2.65 |
| +0.5 | 1.32 | 3.15 |
8 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 9.05 | 1.02 |
| -1.5 | 4.60 | 1.13 |
| -1.25 | 4.10 | 1.16 |
| -1 | 3.56 | 1.23 |
| +0.75 | 1.16 | 4.05 |
| +1 | 1.05 | 6.40 |
| +1.25 | 1.06 | 6.05 |
| +1.5 | 1.03 | 7.60 |