Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#71.8:1.04-0FTToday · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja2.0:1.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.91B365X3.49PIN24.38PINMargin at best3.8%Books6Markets78Rating55 · 45Exp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 12:48 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.86	3.48	4.36	5.4%
1xBet	1.86	3.38	4.23	7.0%
Bet365	1.91	3.20	4.00	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.78	3.24	4.05	11.7%
William Hill	1.80	3.10	3.90	13.5%
BetVictor	1.75	2.90	3.50	20.2%
Best of all books	1.91	3.48	4.36	4.0%
Average	1.83	3.22	4.01	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LibertadGuayaquil City FC

Last 10#7Table position#91.37Points per game1.3010Form pts · last 571.8Goals for · last 52.01.0Goals against · last 51.847Attack rating5364Defence rating3659Form rating4150H2H rating5061Goals model3955Overall rating45

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:51 UTC

Libertad

6W 2D 2L · goals 17:9 · per match 1.7 for, 0.9 against

9 Oct	H	Leones del Norte	3-0	W
20 Sep	A	Emelec	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Independiente del Valle	2-3	L
7 Sep	A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-0	W
4 Sep	H	Emelec	1-1	D
30 Aug	A	Aucas	0-1	L
25 Aug	H	Macara	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Guayaquil City FC	2-2	D
10 Aug	H	Universidad Catolica	2-1	W
1 Aug	H	Orense SC	3-0	W

Guayaquil City FC

4W 3D 3L · goals 18:16 · per match 1.8 for, 1.6 against

10 Oct	H	Emelec	3-2	W
19 Sep	H	Leones del Norte	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Mushuc Runa SC	3-1	W
8 Sep	A	Orense SC	3-4	L
2 Sep	A	Deportivo Cuenca	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	LDU de Quito	2-1	W
22 Aug	A	Tecnico Universitario	3-2	W
15 Aug	H	Libertad	2-2	D
10 Aug	H	Emelec	0-0	D
2 Aug	A	Macara	1-2	L

Head to head

1Libertad wins

2draws

1Guayaquil City FC wins

4 meetings · goals 4:4 · last 4: 1W 2D 1L for Libertad

15 Aug 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Guayaquil City FC2-2Libertad
21 Apr 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad0-1Guayaquil City FC
10 Oct 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad1-0Guayaquil City FC
6 May 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Guayaquil City FC1-1Libertad

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 17 Oct 21:11 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Libertad sit 7th with 41 points from 30 games, while Guayaquil City FC are 9th with 39 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	51:27	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	41:33	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	33:28	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	31:24	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32:25	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	33:34	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	31:32	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	33:36	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25:34	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25:37	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	36:47	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	28:42	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	19:31	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	17:42	-25	21

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.83X28%3.22223%4.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.91 → 1.84 -3.7%X3.19 → 3.22 +0.9%23.81 → 3.96 +3.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.11	1.74	4.9%
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
1xBet	2.09	1.69	7.0%
Marathonbet	2.05	1.66	9.0%
BetVictor	1.82	1.54	19.9%
Best of all books	2.11	1.74	4.9%
Average	2.03	1.67	9.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.88	1.81	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.88	1.78	9.4%
William Hill	1.85	1.80	9.6%
BetVictor	1.70	1.65	19.4%
Best of all books	1.91	1.81	7.6%
Average	1.84	1.77	10.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Libertad 45%Draw 45%Guayaquil City FC 10%

The statistical model rated Libertad at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Guayaquil City FC at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.83 | 3.22 | 4.01, which imply roughly 54.6% for a Libertad win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Libertad are 7th (41 pts, 33-34 goals), Guayaquil City FC 9th (39 pts, 33-36).

Over their last five matches, Libertad averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Guayaquil City FC averaged 2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Libertad or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Libertad

5-4-1

Coach: Jorge Célico

Goalkeeper

12D. Cabezas

Defence

17E. Patta
6B. Caicedo
2R. Morinigo
19O. Quiñónez
20J. Rodríguez

Midfield

70Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
30J. Bravo
80X. Pineda
10G. Cortéz

Attack

33A. Chére

Substitutes (11)

8Stick Carlos Castro Palma
9E. Caicedo
49D. Coronel
66J. Estacio
5C. Gruezo
23J. Guisamano
25M. Lucas
1P. Mina
7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez
63C. Valencia
11H. Batalla

Guayaquil City FC

4-2-3-1

Coach: P. Gavilánez

Goalkeeper

30J. Pinos

Defence

33R. Caicedo
3Y. Rodríguez
4E. Ladines
6R. Arias

Midfield

14D. Arroyo
70P. Mancilla
17J. Ayovi
80P. González
11E. Mero

Attack

21D. Dorregaray

Substitutes (12)

23M. Bolaños
51E. Cabezas
7J. Caicedo
20S. Laurino
1G. Napa
19A. Naula
16J. Ordóñez
9M. Palma
12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar
29J. Quiñónez
15K. Sambonino
28J. Vivar

Match Statistics

LibertadGuayaquil City FC

1.85Expected Goals0.78

343Passes accurate387

9Shots insidebox5

10Shots outsidebox6

8Blocked Shots5

5Free Kicks16

6Shots on Goal2

2Goalkeeper Saves2

5Shots off Goal4

3Offsides0

387Total passes447

19Total Shots11

2Yellow Cards1

4Corner Kicks3

16Fouls5

0Red Cards0

47%Ball Possession53%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.83	3.22	4.01

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	1.84	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.32	2.84

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.84	1.77

1st half

1	X	2
2.44	2.08	4.76

2nd half

1	X	2
2.23	2.34	4.08

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.83	15.4	43.3
HT X	4.55	4.73	8.70
HT 2	27.0	15.7	7.07

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	8.50	2.64

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	7.63
1.5	1.31	2.95
2.5	2.03	1.67
3.5	3.57	1.22
4.5	6.88	1.04
5.5	16.3	1.02
6.5	34.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.80
1	1.04	7.11
1.25	1.17	3.99
1.75	1.40	2.54
2	1.53	2.22
2.25	1.78	1.85
2.75	2.31	1.49
3	2.95	1.33
3.25	3.30	1.25
3.75	4.71	1.12
4	6.77	1.05
4.25	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.04	1.34
-1	2.56	1.42
-0.75	2.06	1.64
-0.5	1.83	1.83
-0.25	1.56	2.19
0	1.33	2.95

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.40	1.03
-2.25	7.00	1.06
-2	6.47	1.08
-1.75	4.31	1.17
-1.5	3.44	1.27
+0.25	1.26	3.54
+0.5	1.23	4.21
+0.75	1.11	5.48
+1	1.01	10.2
+1.25	1.01	8.85
+1.5	1.04	8.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.06	5.66
6.5	1.11	4.70
7.5	1.29	3.06
8.5	1.64	2.11
9.5	1.96	1.77
10.5	2.53	1.42
11.5	3.45	1.23
12.5	5.12	1.08

22 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.07	5.39
6	1.01	7.28
6.25	1.07	5.46
6.75	1.12	4.47
7	1.14	4.24
7.25	1.22	3.50
7.75	1.33	2.88
8	1.38	2.71
8.25	1.48	2.42
8.75	1.65	2.10
9	1.85	1.87
9.25	1.85	1.85
9.75	2.09	1.66
10	2.26	1.55
10.25	2.40	1.49
10.75	2.78	1.36
11	3.15	1.27
11.25	3.31	1.25
11.75	3.97	1.16
12	4.73	1.10
12.25	4.92	1.09
13	6.98	1.02