OddsFilter

Libertad vs Leones del Norte• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#71.2:1.23-0FTToday · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja0.8:1.0#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.51PINX3.121XB23.00PINMargin at best5.2%Books10Markets73Rating46 · 54 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 12:32 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.543.053.045.1%
Betano2.453.102.957.0%
1xBet2.463.082.957.0%
Bet3652.453.102.907.6%
Dafabet2.433.052.908.4%
Marathonbet2.382.972.8410.9%
Betfair2.303.002.9011.3%
William Hill2.402.802.8013.1%
SBO2.312.872.7115.0%
BetVictor2.202.702.7019.5%
Best of all books2.543.103.044.5%
Average2.392.972.8710.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LibertadLeones del Norte
Last 10#7Table position#81.37Points per game1.307Form pts · last 551.2Goals for · last 50.81.2Goals against · last 51.060Attack rating4045Defence rating5558Form rating4220H2H rating8059Goals model4146Overall rating54

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 16:51 UTC

Libertad

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:9 · per match 1.6 for, 0.9 against

20 SepAEmelec2-1W
13 SepHIndependiente del Valle2-3L
7 SepADeportivo Cuenca1-0W
4 SepHEmelec1-1D
30 AugAAucas0-1L
25 AugHMacara1-0W
15 AugAGuayaquil City FC2-2D
10 AugHUniversidad Catolica2-1W
1 AugHOrense SC3-0W
27 JulAMushuc Runa SC2-0W

Leones del Norte

2W 3D 5L · goals 9:18 · per match 0.9 for, 1.8 against

19 SepAGuayaquil City FC1-1D
13 SepHTecnico Universitario0-1L
8 SepAMushuc Runa SC1-1D
3 SepHOrense SC1-0W
30 AugAEmelec1-2L
22 AugHIndependiente del Valle2-3L
15 AugAManta FC2-0W
8 AugAAucas0-3L
2 AugHBarcelona SC1-1D
30 JulALDU de Quito0-6L

Head to head

0Libertad wins
1draws
1Leones del Norte wins

2 meetings · goals 2:4 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for Libertad

4 Jul 2026Liga ProLiga ProLibertad1-3Leones del Norte
28 Feb 2026Liga ProLiga ProLeones del Norte1-1Libertad

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 9 Oct 20:02 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Libertad sit 7th with 41 points from 30 games, while Leones del Norte are 8th with 39 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Independiente del Valle30242473:33+4074
2Universidad Catolica30149751:27+2451
3Macara30156941:33+851
4Aucas30148833:28+550
5LDU de Quito301371031:24+746
6Barcelona SC301111832:25+744
7Libertad301181133:34-141
8Leones del Norte301091131:32-139
9Guayaquil City FC301091133:36-339
10Emelec301091125:34-939
11Mushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338
12Deportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236
13Orense SC30961536:47-1133
14Tecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432
15Delfin SC30771619:31-1228
16Manta FC30561917:42-2521

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg140%2.26X30%3.03230%3.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.2% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.451.564.9%
Betano2.301.606.0%
Bet3652.351.576.2%
1xBet2.381.547.0%
Betfair2.401.508.3%
Marathonbet2.331.519.1%
BetVictor1.981.4419.9%
Best of all books2.451.603.3%
Average2.311.538.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.911.807.9%
Betano1.931.788.0%
1xBet1.951.748.8%
Marathonbet1.951.729.4%
William Hill1.911.759.5%
BetVictor1.751.5720.8%
Best of all books1.951.806.8%
Average1.901.7310.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Libertad 35%Draw 35%Leones del Norte 30%

The statistical model rated Libertad at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Leones del Norte at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.26 | 3.03 | 3.01, which imply roughly 44.2% for a Libertad win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Libertad are 7th (41 pts, 33-34 goals), Leones del Norte 8th (39 pts, 31-32).

Over their last five matches, Libertad averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Leones del Norte averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Libertad or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Libertad

5-4-1

Coach: Jorge Célico

Goalkeeper

  • 12D. Cabezas

Defence

  • 17E. Patta
  • 6B. Caicedo
  • 2R. Morinigo
  • 19O. Quiñónez
  • 20J. Rodríguez

Midfield

  • 70Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
  • 30J. Bravo
  • 80X. Pineda
  • 10G. Cortéz

Attack

  • 33A. Chére
Substitutes (11)
  • 18Yerlin Quinonez
  • 7Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez
  • 1P. Mina
  • 25M. Lucas
  • 23J. Guisamano
  • 5C. Gruezo
  • 66J. Estacio
  • 27S. Bueno Quinonez
  • 9E. Caicedo
  • 8Stick Carlos Castro Palma
  • 49D. Coronel

Leones del Norte

4-1-4-1

Coach: M. Córdoba

Goalkeeper

  • 22J. Arroyo

Defence

  • 23N. Monserrat
  • 25B. Kreiman
  • 16M. de la Cruz

Match Statistics

LibertadLeones del Norte
2.12Expected Goals1.03
294Passes accurate364
8Shots insidebox7
7Shots outsidebox10
2Blocked Shots3
12Free Kicks8
7Shots on Goal4
4Goalkeeper Saves4
6Shots off Goal10
2Offsides1
372Total passes431
15Total Shots17
4Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards2
9Fouls12
0Red Cards0
46%Ball Possession54%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.392.972.87

Double chance

1XX212
1.361.491.33

Draw no bet

12
1.681.99

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.901.73

1st half

1X2
3.141.943.63

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.937.132.20

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.066.42
1.51.412.57
2.52.311.53
3.54.171.17
4.57.891.03
5.516.31.01
6.550.5–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.066.15
11.095.46
1.251.253.30
1.751.532.26
21.731.95
2.252.011.69
2.752.721.39
33.631.22
3.253.991.17
3.755.551.08
48.301.02
4.257.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.841.34
-0.52.341.51
-0.252.021.70
01.682.02
+0.251.482.42
+0.51.382.78
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.510.91.01
-29.901.02
-1.756.771.06
-1.55.341.12
-1.254.581.15
-14.261.19
+0.751.243.66
+11.115.69
+1.251.096.06
+1.51.076.60
+1.751.018.65

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.017.33
6.51.114.70
7.51.303.07
8.51.572.23
9.51.951.77
10.52.571.43
11.53.531.23
12.55.121.08
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.027.02
61.026.72
6.251.085.10
6.751.124.47
71.144.24
7.251.223.50
7.751.332.88
81.372.71
8.251.482.42
8.751.652.10
91.741.97
9.251.851.85
9.752.091.66
102.261.55
10.252.401.49
10.752.781.36
113.141.27
11.253.311.25
11.753.971.16
124.721.10
12.254.921.09