Emelec vs Libertad• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#100.8:1.01-2FT20/09 · Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil1.0:1.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.64AVGX3.41AVG25.05AVGMargin10.1%Books8Markets77Rating51 · 50 levelExp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Sep 20:41 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.87	3.32	4.30	6.9%
1xBet	1.85	3.36	4.33	6.9%
Betano	1.88	3.30	4.25	7.0%
Bet365	1.85	3.40	4.20	7.3%
Betfair	1.85	3.30	4.10	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.77	3.22	4.15	11.6%
William Hill	1.83	3.00	4.00	13.0%
BetVictor	1.73	2.90	3.60	20.1%
Best of all books	1.88	3.40	4.33	5.7%
Average	1.83	3.22	4.12	10.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

EmelecLibertad

Last 10#10Table position#71.30Points per game1.377Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 51.044Attack rating5650Defence rating5050Form rating5050H2H rating5059Goals model4151Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 22:40 UTC

Emelec

3W 2D 5L · goals 8:12 · per match 0.8 for, 1.2 against

20 Sep	H	Libertad	1-2	L
13 Sep	A	Macara	0-1	L
8 Sep	H	Manta FC	1-0	W
4 Sep	A	Libertad	1-1	D
30 Aug	H	Leones del Norte	2-1	W
24 Aug	A	LDU de Quito	0-2	L
16 Aug	H	Tecnico Universitario	2-1	W
10 Aug	A	Guayaquil City FC	0-0	D
2 Aug	H	Aucas	0-2	L
28 Jul	A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-2	L

Libertad

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:9 · per match 1.6 for, 0.9 against

20 Sep	A	Emelec	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Independiente del Valle	2-3	L
7 Sep	A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-0	W
4 Sep	H	Emelec	1-1	D
30 Aug	A	Aucas	0-1	L
25 Aug	H	Macara	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Guayaquil City FC	2-2	D
10 Aug	H	Universidad Catolica	2-1	W
1 Aug	H	Orense SC	3-0	W
27 Jul	A	Mushuc Runa SC	2-0	W

Head to head

2Emelec wins

5draws

1Libertad wins

8 meetings · goals 8:6 · last 8: 2W 5D 1L for Emelec

4 Sep 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad1-1Emelec
10 May 2026Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Emelec1-1Libertad
3 Aug 2025Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad1-2Emelec
12 Apr 2025Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Emelec1-1Libertad
30 Nov 2024Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad2-1Emelec
1 Jun 2024Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Emelec0-0Libertad
5 Aug 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Libertad0-0Emelec
27 Feb 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Emelec2-0Libertad

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 9 Oct 22:10 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Emelec sit 10th with 39 points from 30 games, while Libertad are 7th with 41 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	51:27	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	41:33	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	33:28	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	31:24	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32:25	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	33:34	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	31:32	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	33:36	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25:34	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25:37	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	36:47	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	28:42	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	19:31	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	17:42	-25	21

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg155%1.64X27%3.41218%5.05

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.23	1.65	5.4%
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Betano	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Betfair	2.20	1.65	6.1%
1xBet	2.17	1.64	7.1%
Marathonbet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
BetVictor	1.88	1.50	19.9%
Best of all books	2.23	1.65	5.4%
Average	2.14	1.62	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betfair	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betano	1.95	1.75	8.4%
1xBet	1.95	1.74	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.72	9.4%
William Hill	1.91	1.75	9.5%
BetVictor	1.75	1.60	19.6%
Best of all books	2.00	1.75	7.1%
Average	1.93	1.72	10.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Emelec 45%Draw 45%Libertad 10%

The statistical model rated Emelec at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Libertad at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.64 | 3.41 | 5.05, which imply roughly 61% for a Emelec win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Emelec are 10th (39 pts, 25-34 goals), Libertad 7th (41 pts, 33-34).

Over their last five matches, Emelec averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Libertad averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Emelec or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Emelec

4-1-4-1

Coach: Ezequiel Medran

Goalkeeper

12Pedro Ortiz

Defence

80Orlando Herrera
27Luis Fernando León
4Estalin Segura
2Aníbal Leguizamón

Midfield

32Jefferson Valverde
59Reixon Saya
5Angelo Mina
21José Cevallos
19Juan Ruiz Gómez

Attack

11Teodoro Arce

Substitutes (10)

1Mario Valero
13Luis Gomez
51Stalin Valencia
26Ibrain Cuero
6Víctor Griffith
16Sergio Quintero
28Tobar Bolivar
17Jaime Ayoví
24Andrés Viteri
15Luis Fragozo

Libertad

5-4-1

Coach: Pablo Buch Juan

Goalkeeper

12David Cabezas

Defence

17Elvis Patta
6Bryan Caicedo
2Rodrigo Morinigo
19Orlin Quinonez
20Jackson Rodríguez

Midfield

70Vilington Branda
63Cristhian Valencia
80Xavier Pineda
10Gabriel Cortez

Attack

33Antony Chére

Substitutes (11)

8Stick Castro
25Manuel Lucas
5Carlos Gruezo
18Yerman Quinonez
7Carlos Orejuela
30Jostin Bravo
66Johan Estacio
49Dany Coronel
11Hancel Batalla
9Enrique Caicedo
1Publio Mina

Match Statistics

EmelecLibertad

7Shots on Goal6

5Shots off Goal2

16Total Shots10

4Blocked Shots2

12Shots insidebox5

4Shots outsidebox5

11Fouls11

7Corner Kicks8

2Offsides4

53%Ball Possession47%

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Goalkeeper Saves5

385Total passes335

320Passes accurate265

83%Passes %79%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.83	3.23	4.12

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	1.88	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.32	2.88

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.93	1.72

1st half

1	X	2
2.48	2.03	4.77

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	8.05	2.66

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.27
1.5	1.36	2.81
2.5	2.14	1.62
3.5	3.85	1.20
4.5	7.53	1.05
5.5	15.6	1.02
6.5	41.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.03	7.30
1	1.05	6.59
1.25	1.19	3.77
1.75	1.45	2.43
2	1.61	2.10
2.25	1.87	1.79
2.75	2.45	1.45
3	3.17	1.29
3.25	3.52	1.23
3.75	5.01	1.11
4	7.38	1.03
4.25	7.80	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.04	1.34
-1	2.60	1.42
-0.75	2.07	1.64
-0.5	1.81	1.87
-0.25	1.57	2.21
0	1.32	2.96

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	8.82	1.01
-2.5	7.33	1.05
-2.25	6.82	1.07
-2	6.58	1.07
-1.75	4.32	1.18
-1.5	3.44	1.27
+0.25	1.25	3.58
+0.5	1.22	4.14
+0.75	1.10	5.50
+1	1.05	8.00
+1.5	1.03	9.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.05	5.79
7.5	1.24	3.50
8.5	1.46	2.48
9.5	1.81	1.90
10.5	2.29	1.54
11.5	3.07	1.31
12.5	4.12	1.15
13.5	6.19	1.04

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.06	5.54
7	1.07	5.28
7.25	1.14	4.22
7.75	1.23	3.41
8	1.26	3.22
8.25	1.35	2.80
8.75	1.49	2.38
9	1.56	2.25
9.25	1.67	2.08
9.75	1.86	1.84
10	1.98	1.74
10.25	2.10	1.65
10.75	2.39	1.49
11	2.64	1.40
11.25	2.78	1.36
11.75	3.26	1.25
12	3.77	1.18
12.25	3.94	1.17
12.75	4.77	1.10
13	5.78	1.05
13.25	5.99	1.05