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Macara vs Independiente del Valle• Liga Pro, Ecuador

#31.8:1.41-0FTToday · Estadio Bellavista, Ambato2.2:1.6#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.35PINX3.80B36521.701XBMargin at best3.8%Books6Markets89Rating36 · 65Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 16:46 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle5.353.601.695.6%
1xBet5.013.531.707.1%
Bet3654.753.801.629.1%
Marathonbet4.803.381.6311.8%
William Hill4.603.251.6712.4%
BetVictor4.003.251.5520.3%
Best of all books5.353.801.703.8%
Average4.753.471.6410.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MacaraIndependiente del Valle
Last 10#3Table position#11.70Points per game2.4712Form pts · last 5101.8Goals for · last 52.21.4Goals against · last 51.645Attack rating5553Defence rating4755Form rating457H2H rating9337Goals model6336Overall rating65

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:51 UTC

Macara

5W 2D 3L · goals 13:12 · per match 1.3 for, 1.2 against

11 OctAUniversidad Catolica1-0W
19 SepAAucas2-1W
13 SepHEmelec1-0W
5 SepAIndependiente del Valle1-3L
2 SepHManta FC4-3W
30 AugAOrense SC2-1W
25 AugALibertad0-1L
20 AugHSantos0-0D
18 AugHUniversidad Catolica1-1D
13 AugASantos1-2L

Independiente del Valle

6W 2D 2L · goals 20:14 · per match 2.0 for, 1.4 against

10 OctHAucas2-1W
25 SepAGualaceo SC2-0W
18 SepAFlamengo1-1D
13 SepALibertad3-2W
11 SepHFlamengo0-2L
5 SepHMacara3-1W
3 SepABarcelona SC1-2L
29 AugHUniversidad Catolica2-2D
26 AugHDeportes Tolima3-1W
22 AugALeones del Norte3-2W

Head to head

3Macara wins
4draws
15Independiente del Valle wins

22 meetings · goals 17:47 · last 10: 1W 1D 8L for Macara

5 Sep 2026Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle3-1Macara
16 May 2026Liga ProLiga ProMacara0-3Independiente del Valle
12 Jul 2025Liga ProLiga ProMacara1-2Independiente del Valle
16 Mar 2025Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle1-1Macara
24 Nov 2024Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle7-0Macara
26 May 2024Liga ProLiga ProMacara0-1Independiente del Valle
25 Sep 2022Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle1-0Macara
10 May 2022Liga ProLiga ProMacara0-1Independiente del Valle
1 Aug 2021Liga ProLiga ProIndependiente del Valle4-0Macara
27 Feb 2021Liga ProLiga ProMacara3-1Independiente del Valle

Liga Pro tableLiga Pro: Regular seasonupdated 17 Oct 21:11 UTC

In the Liga Pro table, Macara sit 3rd with 51 points from 30 games, while Independiente del Valle are 1st with 74 points from 30.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Independiente del Valle30242473:33+4074
2Universidad Catolica30149751:27+2451
3Macara30156941:33+851
4Aucas30148833:28+550
5LDU de Quito301371031:24+746
6Barcelona SC301111832:25+744
7Libertad301181133:34-141
8Leones del Norte301091131:32-139
9Guayaquil City FC301091133:36-339
10Emelec301091125:34-939
11Mushuc Runa SC309111035:38-338
12Deportivo Cuenca301061425:37-1236
13Orense SC30961536:47-1133
14Tecnico Universitario301021828:42-1432
15Delfin SC30771619:31-1228
16Manta FC30561917:42-2521

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg119%4.75X26%3.47255%1.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15 Oct 02:3017 Oct 17:501 4.75X 3.472 1.64
13.27 → 4.75 +45.3%X3.02 → 3.47 +14.9%22.16 → 1.64 -24.1%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.842.004.3%
Bet3651.752.055.9%
1xBet1.791.966.9%
Marathonbet1.761.928.9%
BetVictor1.601.7420.0%
Best of all books1.842.053.1%
Average1.751.938.9%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.732.007.8%
1xBet1.741.968.5%
Marathonbet1.741.939.3%
William Hill1.751.919.5%
BetVictor1.601.7519.6%
Best of all books1.752.007.1%
Average1.711.9110.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Macara 10%Draw 45%Independiente del Valle 45%

The statistical model rated Macara at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Independiente del Valle at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.75 | 3.47 | 1.64, which imply roughly 28.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro table: Macara are 3rd (51 pts, 41-33 goals), Independiente del Valle 1st (74 pts, 73-33).

Over their last five matches, Macara averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Independiente del Valle averaged 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Independiente del Valle.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Macara

4-1-4-1

Coach: G. Sanguinetti

Goalkeeper

  • 1R. Rodriguez

Defence

  • 25J. Bolaños
  • 4J. Jiménez
  • 14J. Marrufo
  • 27J. Mohor

Midfield

  • 5J. Estacio
  • 28A. Campana
  • 15M. Tello
  • 16J. Cazares
  • 20M. Viera

Attack

  • 9F. Posse
Substitutes (11)
  • 11Tono Espinoza
  • 3Juan Espinoza
  • 12D. Cuero
  • 52B. Coello
  • 50C. Caicedo
  • 13L. Ayala
  • 22L. Ferro
  • 87J. Klinger
  • 26M. Medranda
  • 19P. Ramos
  • 21S. Etchebarne

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

Coach: Joaquín Papa

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Quintana

Defence

  • 13Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
  • 14M. Carabajal
  • 5R. Schunke
  • 19L. Loor

Midfield

  • 6J. Alcívar
  • 11M. Perelló
  • 28H. Quintana
  • 10J. Sornoza
  • 31Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez

Attack

  • 9C. González
Substitutes (12)
  • 16R. Briones
  • 15G. Cortéz
  • 4J. Espinoza
  • 18Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
  • 32J. Méndez
  • 8Y. Ochoa
  • 70M. Peralta
  • 56E. Quintero
  • 99D. Reasco
  • 33Andy René Velasco García
  • 23Juan Viacava
  • 52Y. Vásquez

Match Statistics

MacaraIndependiente del Valle
0.98Expected Goals1.31
240Passes accurate378
7Shots insidebox14
5Shots outsidebox2
2Blocked Shots5
12Free Kicks10
5Shots on Goal5
5Goalkeeper Saves4
5Shots off Goal6
2Offsides3
291Total passes438
12Total Shots16
3Yellow Cards2
4Corner Kicks6
13Fouls12
0Red Cards0
40%Ball Possession60%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
4.753.471.64

Double chance

1XX212
2.071.141.26

Draw no bet

12
3.181.25

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.711.91

1st half

1X2
5.072.222.22

2nd half

1X2
4.202.502.11

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 18.1715.423.7
HT X9.835.134.47
HT 238.714.42.67

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.689.701.57

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.028.64
1.51.223.56
2.51.751.93
3.52.751.36
4.55.111.12
5.510.81.04
6.524.51.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.027.90
11.037.55
1.251.134.66
1.751.273.16
21.362.71
2.251.552.16
2.751.921.72
32.241.53
3.252.441.43
3.753.291.25
44.551.15
4.254.701.12
59.701.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
+0.252.501.43
+0.52.091.62
+0.751.871.80
+11.622.10
+1.251.472.38
+1.51.412.76
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.758.781.01
-1.58.431.07
-1.257.531.05
-18.831.07
-0.755.741.11
-0.54.541.20
-0.253.821.21
03.421.25
+1.751.283.36
+21.164.54
+2.251.144.85
+2.51.125.39
+2.751.066.25
+31.0110.0
+3.51.0110.1

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.017.13
6.51.114.64
7.51.303.03
8.51.572.19
9.51.981.73
10.52.551.41
11.53.511.21
12.55.211.08
13.56.341.03
24 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.026.83
61.017.16
6.251.075.39
6.751.134.40
71.144.18
7.251.223.46
7.751.342.84
81.382.68
8.251.492.39
8.751.662.08
91.801.95
9.251.861.84
9.752.111.64
102.291.54
10.252.421.48
10.752.821.35
113.191.26
11.253.361.24
11.754.031.16
124.811.10
12.255.011.09
12.754.881.10
135.931.05
13.256.131.04