Ancona vs Fossombrone• Coppa Italia Serie D, Italy

1-1FTToday · Stadio del Conero, Ancona

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.55PINX4.06PIN25.75BVCMargin at best6.5%Books4Markets43Rating59 · 42

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Oct 16:54 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	1.40	4.20	7.00	9.5%
1xBet	1.40	3.92	7.14	10.9%
Bet365	1.45	3.90	5.75	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.39	3.92	6.75	12.3%
Best of all books	1.45	4.20	7.14	6.8%
Average	1.41	3.99	6.66	11.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AnconaFossombrone

Last 108Form pts · last 570Attack rating00Defence rating00Form rating062H2H rating380Goals model059Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 11:21 UTC

Ancona

4W 4D 2L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

4 Oct	H	Sporting Trestina	2-0	W
27 Sep	A	Angelana	1-1	D
20 Sep	H	L'Aquila	2-2	D
16 Sep	A	Maceratese	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Montecchio Gallo	0-1	L
6 Sep	A	Notaresco	2-1	W
10 May	H	Notaresco	1-3	L
3 May	H	Notaresco	1-1	D
26 Apr	A	L'Aquila	0-0	D
19 Apr	H	Sammaurese	3-0	W

Fossombrone

4W 2D 4L · goals 10:16 · per match 1.0 for, 1.6 against

4 Oct	A	Atletico Ascoli	1-0	W
27 Sep	A	Vigor Senigallia	0-0	D
20 Sep	H	Lanciano FC	2-4	L
16 Sep	A	Sporting Trestina	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	L'Aquila	0-4	L
6 Sep	A	Real Giulianova	2-1	W
1 Aug	A	Cesena	0-3	L
3 May	A	Recanatese	0-2	L
26 Apr	H	Castelfidardo Calcio	3-1	W
19 Apr	A	Atletico Ascoli	1-1	D

Head to head

1Ancona wins

3draws

1Fossombrone wins

5 meetings · goals 5:5 · last 5: 1W 3D 1L for Ancona

12 Apr 2026Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Fossombrone1-2Ancona
30 Nov 2025Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Ancona1-2Fossombrone
8 Oct 2025Coppa Italia Serie D	Coppa Italia Serie D	Fossombrone0-0Ancona
17 Apr 2025Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Fossombrone1-1Ancona
8 Dec 2024Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Ancona1-1Fossombrone

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg159%1.53X23%3.90218%5.06

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.41 → 1.52 +7.8%X3.99 → 3.84 -3.8%26.66 → 5.14 -22.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
1xBet	1.79	1.88	9.1%
BetVictor	1.79	1.88	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.88	9.1%
Best of all books	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Average	1.80	1.90	8.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.95	1.74	8.8%
BetVictor	2.00	1.70	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.71	9.8%
Best of all books	2.00	1.74	7.5%
Average	1.97	1.72	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ancona 45%Draw 45%Fossombrone 10%

The statistical model rated Ancona at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Fossombrone at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.06, which imply roughly 65.4% for a Ancona win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Ancona averaged 0 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Fossombrone averaged 0 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Ancona or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.41	3.99	6.66

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.07	2.52	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.15	4.95

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.97	1.72

1st half

1	X	2
1.96	2.22	6.78

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.37	10.8	3.35

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	10.0
1.5	1.23	3.53
2.5	1.81	1.90
3.5	2.98	1.32
4.5	6.00	1.08

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	8.70
1.75	1.28	3.08
2	1.38	2.68
2.25	1.58	2.16
2.75	2.00	1.68
3	2.35	1.48
3.25	2.66	1.37
3.75	3.58	1.21
4	4.90	1.11

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.64	1.39
-1.5	2.24	1.53
-1.25	1.97	1.73
-1	1.70	1.99
-0.75	1.51	2.29
-0.5	1.44	2.51

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.70	1.01
-3	7.90	1.02
-2.5	4.20	1.16
-2	3.34	1.24
-0.25	1.25	3.28
0	1.09	5.30
+0.25	1.07	5.93