Matagalpa vs Real Estelí• Primera Division, Nicaragua

#80.6:0.81-4FT11/101.8:0.6#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

16.971XBX4.401XB21.53BVCMargin at best2.4%Books9Markets47Rating34 · 66Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 22:21 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	6.97	4.40	1.44	6.5%
Betano	6.20	4.10	1.47	8.5%
Dafabet	6.20	4.20	1.43	9.9%
BetVictor	5.25	3.90	1.53	10.0%
Pinnacle	6.06	4.23	1.42	10.6%
Betfair	6.00	3.90	1.44	11.8%
William Hill	6.50	4.00	1.40	11.8%
Bet365	6.00	3.80	1.45	11.9%
Marathonbet	6.50	4.10	1.38	12.2%
Best of all books	6.97	4.40	1.53	2.4%
Average	6.19	4.07	1.44	10.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MatagalpaReal Estelí

Last 10#8Table position#30.82Points per game1.833Form pts · last 560.6Goals for · last 51.80.8Goals against · last 50.625Attack rating7543Defence rating5753Form rating4738H2H rating628Goals model9234Overall rating66

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 09:10 UTC

Matagalpa

3W 0D 7L · goals 6:22 · per match 0.6 for, 2.2 against

15 Oct	H	Walter Ferretti	1-5	L
11 Oct	H	Real Estelí	1-4	L
7 Sep	H	Diriangén	0-3	L
4 Sep	H	UNAN Managua	1-0	W
30 Aug	H	Rancho Santana	0-1	L
23 Aug	A	Jalapa	1-0	W
16 Aug	H	San Marcos	1-0	W
10 Aug	H	Managua	0-3	L
3 Aug	A	Walter Ferretti	1-4	L
26 Jul	A	Real Estelí	0-2	L

Real Estelí

3W 3D 4L · goals 14:12 · per match 1.4 for, 1.2 against

16 Oct	H	Jalapa	1-1	D
11 Oct	A	Matagalpa	4-1	W
8 Oct	A	UNAN Managua	0-1	L
11 Sep	A	Managua	1-1	D
6 Sep	A	Rancho Santana	1-1	D
3 Sep	H	San Marcos	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	H&H Export	5-0	W
27 Aug	A	CD Marathon	0-3	L
23 Aug	H	Diriangén	0-2	L
19 Aug	H	CS Herediano	0-2	L

Head to head

2Matagalpa wins

7draws

10Real Estelí wins

19 meetings · goals 16:32 · last 10: 2W 4D 4L for Matagalpa

26 Jul 2026Primera Division	Primera Division	Real Estelí2-0Matagalpa
26 Apr 2026Primera Division	Primera Division	Real Estelí0-0Matagalpa
23 Feb 2026Primera Division	Primera Division	Matagalpa1-1Real Estelí
23 Nov 2025Primera Division	Primera Division	Matagalpa1-0Real Estelí
14 Sep 2025Primera Division	Primera Division	Real Estelí2-1Matagalpa
7 Jul 2025Copa Nicaragua	Copa Nicaragua	Real Estelí1-1Matagalpa
3 Jul 2025Copa Nicaragua	Copa Nicaragua	Matagalpa2-2Real Estelí
12 Mar 2025Primera Division	Primera Division	Matagalpa2-4Real Estelí
26 Jan 2025Primera Division	Primera Division	Real Estelí2-0Matagalpa
27 Oct 2024Primera Division	Primera Division	Matagalpa4-1Real Estelí

Primera Division tableAperturaupdated 17 Oct 09:11 UTC

In the Primera Division table, Matagalpa sit 8th with 9 points from 11 games, while Real Estelí are 3rd with 22 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Managua	12	10	2	0	37:12	+25	32
2	Diriangén	12	8	3	1	25:13	+12	27
3	Real Estelí	12	6	4	2	22:9	+13	22
4	UNAN Managua	12	6	3	3	14:11	+3	21
5	H&H Export	11	5	2	4	13:17	-4	17
6	Walter Ferretti	12	4	2	6	23:21	+2	14
7	San Marcos	12	3	2	7	12:19	-7	11
8	Matagalpa	11	3	0	8	6:25	-19	9
9	Jalapa	12	1	3	8	7:18	-11	6
10	Rancho Santana	12	1	3	8	9:23	-14	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg115%6.21X22%4.08263%1.44

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.75 → 6.19 +30.3%X3.70 → 4.07 +10.0%21.57 → 1.44 -8.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.69	2.11	6.6%
Pinnacle	1.67	2.11	7.3%
Betano	1.67	2.07	8.2%
BetVictor	1.65	2.10	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.06	9.1%
Best of all books	1.70	2.11	6.2%
Average	1.67	2.09	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.80	1.91	7.9%
Betano	1.80	1.88	8.7%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
1xBet	1.83	1.84	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.81	9.9%
Best of all books	1.83	2.00	4.6%
Average	1.79	1.89	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Matagalpa 10%Draw 45%Real Estelí 45%

The statistical model rated Matagalpa at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Real Estelí at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.21 | 4.08 | 1.44, which imply roughly 24.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera Division table: Matagalpa are 8th (9 pts, 6-25 goals), Real Estelí 3rd (22 pts, 22-9).

Over their last five matches, Matagalpa averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Real Estelí averaged 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Real Estelí and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
6.19	4.07	1.44

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.51	1.09	1.19

Draw no bet

1	2
4.25	1.18

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.79	1.89

1st half

1	X	2
5.87	2.32	1.94

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
3.24	12.5	1.37

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	11.6
1.5	1.19	3.82
2.5	1.67	2.09
3.5	2.55	1.42
4.5	4.65	1.14
5.5	8.35	1.06

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	8.80
1.75	1.22	3.50
2	1.28	3.13
2.25	1.48	2.44
2.75	1.83	1.87
3	2.06	1.65
3.25	2.31	1.51
3.75	2.97	1.30
4	3.85	1.18
4.25	4.78	1.14

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.5	2.69	1.41
+0.75	2.38	1.48
+1	1.97	1.76
+1.25	1.82	1.92
+1.5	1.64	2.12
+1.75	1.47	2.41

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	9.35	1.01
-0.25	5.65	1.08
0	5.10	1.10
+0.25	3.34	1.24
+2	1.31	2.98
+2.25	1.22	3.53
+2.5	1.21	3.58
+3	1.06	6.15
+3.5	1.04	6.75