Mariehamn vs Ilves• Veikkausliiga, Finland

#121.8:1.216:0010/10 · Mariehamn1.8:0.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.00BTNX3.74PIN22.26PINMargin at best4.3%Books9Markets52Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Oct 16:04 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.94	3.74	2.26	5.0%
Dafabet	3.00	3.70	2.23	5.2%
1xBet	2.92	3.70	2.19	6.9%
Betano	3.00	3.55	2.20	7.0%
Marathonbet	2.91	3.70	2.17	7.5%
William Hill	2.90	3.50	2.20	8.5%
Bet365	2.90	3.50	2.15	9.6%
Betfair	2.80	3.60	2.10	11.1%
SBO	2.67	3.18	2.16	15.2%
Best of all books	3.00	3.74	2.26	4.3%
Average	2.89	3.57	2.18	8.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MariehamnIlves

Last 10#12Table position#90.64Points per game1.149Form pts · last 5121.8Goals for · last 51.81.2Goals against · last 50.850Attack rating5040Defence rating6050Form rating5038H2H rating6237Goals model6343Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 18:33 UTC

Mariehamn

4W 1D 5L · goals 12:14 · per match 1.2 for, 1.4 against

18 Sep	A	SJK	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Turku PS	1-0	W
8 Sep	A	Lahti	1-2	L
31 Aug	H	FF Jaro	2-0	W
23 Aug	A	KuPS	4-2	W
15 Aug	H	SJK	2-0	W
9 Aug	A	Ilves	0-2	L
1 Aug	A	Turku PS	0-3	L
25 Jul	H	AC Oulu	1-1	D
20 Jul	H	Lahti	0-2	L

Ilves

5W 1D 4L · goals 17:9 · per match 1.7 for, 0.9 against

3 Oct	H	Haka	3-0	W
19 Sep	A	Turku PS	3-0	W
12 Sep	H	Lahti	3-1	W
8 Sep	H	FF Jaro	2-0	W
31 Aug	H	HJK Helsinki	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	VPS	0-1	L
17 Aug	A	Gnistan	2-3	L
13 Aug	H	HNK Rijeka	1-1	D
9 Aug	H	Mariehamn	2-0	W
6 Aug	A	HNK Rijeka	0-1	L

Head to head

11Mariehamn wins

7draws

16Ilves wins

34 meetings · goals 40:53 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Mariehamn

9 Aug 2026Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves2-0Mariehamn
18 Apr 2026Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Mariehamn2-2Ilves
31 Aug 2025Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves2-1Mariehamn
27 Apr 2025Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Mariehamn3-2Ilves
11 Aug 2024Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves2-0Mariehamn
28 Apr 2024Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Mariehamn0-1Ilves
27 Sep 2023Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves2-1Mariehamn
15 Jul 2023Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves0-0Mariehamn
5 Apr 2023Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Mariehamn1-1Ilves
2 Oct 2022Veikkausliiga	Veikkausliiga	Ilves2-3Mariehamn

Veikkausliiga tableVeikkausliigaupdated 7 Oct 20:11 UTC

In the Veikkausliiga table, Mariehamn sit 12th with 14 points from 22 games, while Ilves are 9th with 25 points from 22.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	22	12	7	3	38:23	+15	43
2	Inter Turku	22	11	9	2	29:16	+13	42
3	HJK Helsinki	22	11	4	7	36:27	+9	37
4	Gnistan	22	10	6	6	36:29	+7	36
5	AC Oulu	22	10	4	8	25:25	0	34
6	VPS	22	9	6	7	29:22	+7	33
7	Lahti	22	9	5	8	26:19	+7	32
8	Turku PS	22	8	7	7	28:23	+5	31
9	Ilves	22	7	4	11	34:37	-3	25
10	SJK	22	4	7	11	25:33	-8	19
11	FF Jaro	22	3	6	13	18:44	-26	15
12	Mariehamn	22	3	5	14	17:43	-26	14

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg132%2.89X26%3.55242%2.17

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.3% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.61	2.34	4.8%
Bet365	1.57	2.35	6.2%
Betano	1.57	2.35	6.2%
1xBet	1.52	2.24	10.4%
Marathonbet	1.52	2.24	10.4%
Best of all books	1.61	2.35	4.7%
Average	1.56	2.30	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
William Hill	1.50	2.45	7.5%
Betano	1.47	2.50	8.0%
1xBet	1.48	2.47	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.48	2.43	8.7%
Best of all books	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Average	1.49	2.47	7.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mariehamn 10%Draw 45%Ilves 45%

The statistical model rates Mariehamn at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Ilves at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.89 | 3.55 | 2.17, which imply roughly 28.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Veikkausliiga table: Mariehamn are 12th (14 pts, 17-43 goals), Ilves 9th (25 pts, 34-37).

Over their last five matches, Mariehamn averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Ilves averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Ilves.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.89	3.57	2.18

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.64	1.36	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
2.18	1.62

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.49	2.47

1st half

1	X	2
3.34	2.35	2.65

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.07	17.1	1.79

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	12.6
1.5	1.16	4.61
2.5	1.56	2.30
3.5	2.41	1.54
4.5	4.11	1.20
5.5	7.45	1.06
6.5	16.0	1.02
7.5	34.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	9.70
1.75	1.17	4.00
2	1.21	3.58
2.25	1.37	2.66
2.75	1.69	2.07
3	1.91	1.83
3.25	2.15	1.64
3.75	2.71	1.38
4	3.34	1.25
4.25	3.68	1.20
4.75	4.89	1.11
5	6.55	1.05
5.25	6.85	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.89	1.40
-0.25	2.51	1.49
0	2.19	1.65
+0.25	1.85	1.91
+0.5	1.67	2.21
+0.75	1.48	2.49

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	10.0	1.01
-1.75	6.90	1.04
-1.5	5.57	1.10
-1.25	5.17	1.12
-1	4.73	1.14
-0.75	3.43	1.27
+1	1.31	3.17
+1.25	1.26	3.48
+1.5	1.20	3.83
+1.75	1.13	4.88
+2	1.05	6.65
+2.5	1.03	7.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.26	3.60
9.5	1.45	2.62
10.5	1.74	2.01
11	2.00	1.80
11.5	2.22	1.62
12.5	2.92	1.37