Paredes vs Maria da Fonte• Taça de Portugal, Portugal

3.0:1.05-1FT20/091.0:0.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.21BTNX5.75BVC215.0WHMargin at best6.7%Books6Markets61Rating63 · 38Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 19 Sep 15:59 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	1.20	5.50	13.0	9.2%
Bet365	1.18	5.25	15.0	10.5%
1xBet	1.22	4.85	12.5	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.21	4.85	11.8	11.8%
William Hill	1.22	4.50	13.0	11.9%
Pinnacle	1.21	4.88	10.2	13.0%
Best of all books	1.22	5.50	15.0	6.8%
Average	1.21	4.97	12.6	10.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ParedesMaria da Fonte

Last 1012Form pts · last 533.0Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 50.075Attack rating250Defence rating10050Form rating500H2H rating00Goals model063Overall rating38

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 11:32 UTC

Paredes

8W 0D 2L · goals 24:12 · per match 2.4 for, 1.2 against

20 Sep	H	Maria da Fonte	5-1	W
13 Sep	H	Fafe	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	Varzim	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Ermesinde	3-1	W
23 Aug	H	Leça	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-0	W
7 Aug	H	Guimaraes B	3-1	W
1 Aug	H	Lusitânia Lourosa	4-2	W
22 Jul	A	AVS	4-2	W
18 Jul	A	Santa Clara	0-2	L

Maria da Fonte

3W 0D 7L · goals 6:21 · per match 0.6 for, 2.1 against

20 Sep	A	Paredes	1-5	L
13 Sep	H	SC Braga B	0-4	L
6 Sep	A	Brito	1-2	L
30 Aug	H	Uniao Nogueirense	1-0	W
23 Aug	H	Celoricense	0-1	L
16 Aug	A	Vinhais	1-0	W
31 Jul	A	Fafe	0-2	L
31 Aug	H	Brito	1-2	L
20 Oct	H	Arouca	0-5	L
21 Sep	A	Lajense	1-0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Paredes and Maria da Fonte on record.

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg179%1.13X14%6.3226%14.3

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.7% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Pinnacle	1.69	2.01	8.9%
1xBet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
BetVictor	1.69	2.00	9.2%
Best of all books	1.69	2.20	4.6%
Average	1.68	2.05	8.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.38	1.53	7.4%
1xBet	2.32	1.53	8.5%
BetVictor	2.45	1.47	8.8%
William Hill	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.32	1.51	9.3%
Best of all books	2.45	1.57	4.5%
Average	2.33	1.52	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Paredes 35%Draw 35%Maria da Fonte 30%

The statistical model rated Paredes at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Maria da Fonte at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.13 | 6.32 | 14.25, which imply roughly 88.5% for a Paredes win versus the model's 35%.

Over their last five matches, Paredes averaged 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Maria da Fonte averaged 1 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Paredes.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.21	4.97	12.6

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.03	3.40	1.12

Draw no bet

1	2
1.04	11.2

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.33	1.52

1st half

1	X	2
1.67	2.48	10.2

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.22	8.90	5.40

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	10.3
1.5	1.20	3.97
2.5	1.68	2.05
3.5	2.66	1.39
4.5	4.72	1.14
5.5	9.01	1.04
6.5	17.0	1.02
7.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.48
1	1.02	8.00
1.25	1.11	4.95
1.75	1.24	3.34
2	1.31	2.96
2.25	1.50	2.33
2.75	1.85	1.81
3	2.11	1.60
3.25	2.36	1.48
3.75	3.04	1.29
4	3.85	1.18
4.25	4.15	1.16
4.75	4.55	1.13
5	7.40	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	2.59	1.41
-2.25	2.44	1.45
-2	2.16	1.58
-1.75	1.87	1.79
-1.5	1.76	1.95
-1.25	1.51	2.31

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	8.70	1.01
-4	8.20	1.02
-3.75	5.95	1.07
-3.5	4.80	1.12
-3.25	4.46	1.14
-3	4.15	1.16
-2.75	3.03	1.29
-1	1.36	2.76
-0.75	1.30	3.02
-0.25	1.11	4.85
0	1.01	8.70
+0.25	1.05	6.70