CD Motagua vs Atlético Choloma• Liga Nacional, Honduras

#41.4:0.623:15Today · Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa1.0:0.6#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.23BTNX6.50B365211.0WHMargin at best5.8%Books6Markets56Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L51.8

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 18:37 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.23	6.20	9.40	8.1%
William Hill	1.22	5.00	11.0	11.1%
1xBet	1.19	5.60	10.9	11.1%
Betano	1.23	5.50	8.50	11.2%
Bet365	1.14	6.50	11.0	12.2%
Marathonbet	1.18	5.60	10.3	12.4%
Best of all books	1.23	6.50	11.0	5.8%
Average	1.20	5.73	10.2	10.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CD MotaguaAtlético Choloma

Last 10#4Table position#111.63Points per game0.888Form pts · last 571.4Goals for · last 51.00.6Goals against · last 50.658Attack rating4250Defence rating5059Form rating41100H2H rating079Goals model2166Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 20:21 UTC

CD Motagua

4W 4D 2L · goals 13:8 · per match 1.3 for, 0.8 against

20 Sep	A	Real Espana	0-1	L
17 Sep	A	Alianza	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Génesis	1-0	W
10 Sep	H	Alianza	3-0	W
5 Sep	A	Atletico Independiente	0-0	D
30 Aug	H	Olancho	2-1	W
26 Aug	A	Municipal	1-1	D
22 Aug	H	Lobos Upnfm	4-1	W
16 Aug	A	CD Olimpia	1-3	L
13 Aug	H	CS Cartagines	1-1	D

Atlético Choloma

3W 1D 6L · goals 8:13 · per match 0.8 for, 1.3 against

19 Sep	H	Estrella Roja	2-0	W
13 Sep	A	Lobos Upnfm	0-1	L
5 Sep	H	Olancho	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Real Espana	1-2	L
23 Aug	H	Platense FC	2-0	W
16 Aug	H	CD Marathon	0-1	L
10 Aug	A	Atletico Independiente	1-2	L
1 Aug	A	Génesis	0-2	L
1 May	A	CD Marathon	1-0	W
26 Apr	A	CD Motagua	1-5	L

Head to head

8CD Motagua wins

4draws

0Atlético Choloma wins

12 meetings · goals 21:5 · last 10: 8W 2D 0L for CD Motagua

26 Apr 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua5-1Atlético Choloma
8 Mar 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	Atlético Choloma1-3CD Motagua
9 Nov 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua2-1Atlético Choloma
10 Sep 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	Atlético Choloma0-3CD Motagua
4 Apr 2013Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	Atlético Choloma0-3CD Motagua
15 Feb 2013Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua1-0Atlético Choloma
11 Nov 2012Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua0-0Atlético Choloma
15 Sep 2012Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	Atlético Choloma1-2CD Motagua
22 Mar 2012Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	Atlético Choloma0-0CD Motagua
29 Jan 2012Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua1-0Atlético Choloma

Liga Nacional tableAperturaupdated 10 Oct 01:21 UTC

In the Liga Nacional table, CD Motagua sit 4th with 13 points from 8 games, while Atlético Choloma are 11th with 7 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13:4	+9	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	5	2	1	19:7	+12	17
3	CD Marathon	8	5	2	1	14:6	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	+3	13
5	Génesis	8	3	2	3	10:6	+4	11
6	Olancho	8	2	5	1	6:5	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	13:16	-3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	2	3	3	7:11	-4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8
10	Platense FC	9	2	2	5	8:19	-11	8
11	Atlético Choloma	8	2	1	5	6:8	-2	7
12	Juticalpa	9	2	0	7	9:21	-12	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg175%1.20X16%5.7329%10.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.29 → 1.20 -7.0%X5.30 → 5.73 +8.1%28.98 → 10.2 +13.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.33	3.25	6.0%
1xBet	1.35	2.74	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.35	2.74	10.6%
Best of all books	1.35	3.25	4.8%
Average	1.34	2.91	8.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.75	2.00	7.1%
1xBet	1.76	1.91	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.76	1.88	10.0%
Best of all books	1.76	2.00	6.8%
Average	1.76	1.93	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

CD Motagua 45%Draw 45%Atlético Choloma 10%

The statistical model rates CD Motagua at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Atlético Choloma at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.20 | 5.73 | 10.17, which imply roughly 83.3% for a CD Motagua win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Nacional table: CD Motagua are 4th (13 pts, 11-8 goals), Atlético Choloma 11th (7 pts, 6-8).

Over their last five matches, CD Motagua averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Atlético Choloma averaged 1 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : CD Motagua or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.20	5.73	10.2

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.03	3.78	1.09

Draw no bet

1	2
1.07	7.20

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.76	1.93

1st half

1	X	2
1.57	2.81	8.26

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.22	21.8	3.96

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	16.5
1.5	1.09	5.80
2.5	1.34	2.91
3.5	1.92	1.75
4.5	3.04	1.29
5.5	5.50	1.12

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	12.5
1.75	1.10	5.07
2	1.11	4.90
2.25	1.23	3.42
2.75	1.42	2.49
3	1.59	2.12
3.25	1.73	1.92
3.75	2.13	1.57
4	2.49	1.42
4.25	2.74	1.35
4.75	3.20	1.26
5	4.65	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	2.43	1.44
-2.25	2.11	1.66
-2	1.97	1.69
-1.75	1.78	1.90
-1.5	1.76	1.93
-1.25	1.46	2.38

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	9.30	1.02
-4	6.85	1.07
-3.5	4.25	1.15
-3.25	2.97	1.30
-3	3.58	1.21
-2.75	2.88	1.32
-1	1.29	3.04
-0.75	1.24	3.34
-0.25	1.13	4.63
0	1.02	8.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
10.5	1.81	1.92