22 de Julio vs El Nacional• Liga Pro Serie B, Ecuador

#111.0:3.80-0LiveToday1.0:1.8#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.61PINX3.80BFR21.98BTNMargin at best4.5%Books8Markets44Rating29 · 71Exp. goals L53.8

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Oct 16:13 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	3.30	3.70	1.97	8.1%
Pinnacle	3.61	3.76	1.82	9.2%
Betfair	3.50	3.80	1.80	10.4%
Betano	3.25	3.40	1.98	10.7%
1xBet	3.54	3.70	1.80	10.8%
Marathonbet	3.45	3.70	1.78	12.2%
William Hill	3.40	3.40	1.85	12.9%
BetVictor	3.25	3.30	1.70	19.9%
Best of all books	3.61	3.80	1.98	4.5%
Average	3.41	3.59	1.84	11.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

22 de JulioEl Nacional

Last 10#11Table position#120.68Points per game0.551Form pts · last 531.0Goals for · last 51.03.8Goals against · last 51.850Attack rating5032Defence rating6825Form rating759H2H rating9139Goals model6129Overall rating71

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 20:21 UTC

22 de Julio

0W 1D 9L · goals 6:30 · per match 0.6 for, 3.0 against

3 Oct	A	Gualaceo SC	2-4	L
24 Sep	A	LDU Portoviejo	2-2	D
17 Sep	H	Cumbayá	1-7	L
12 Sep	A	El Nacional	0-3	L
4 Sep	H	Gualaceo SC	0-3	L
27 Aug	H	Santo Domingo	0-3	L
21 Aug	A	LDU Portoviejo	0-2	L
14 Aug	H	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	0-1	L
6 Aug	A	Ind. Juniors	0-2	L
31 Jul	H	El Nacional	1-3	L

El Nacional

3W 1D 6L · goals 10:15 · per match 1.0 for, 1.5 against

3 Oct	A	LDU Portoviejo	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	Cumbayá	0-3	L
18 Sep	A	Santo Domingo	0-1	L
12 Sep	H	22 de Julio	3-0	W
5 Sep	H	LDU Portoviejo	0-2	L
29 Aug	A	Gualaceo SC	0-3	L
20 Aug	A	Ind. Juniors	1-1	D
13 Aug	H	San Antonio	0-1	L
6 Aug	H	9 de Octubre	1-0	W
31 Jul	A	22 de Julio	3-1	W

Head to head

022 de Julio wins

1draws

3El Nacional wins

4 meetings · goals 2:10 · last 4: 0W 1D 3L for 22 de Julio

12 Sep 2026Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	El Nacional3-022 de Julio
31 Jul 2026Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	22 de Julio1-3El Nacional
9 May 2026Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	El Nacional1-122 de Julio
11 Jul 2025Copa Ecuador	Copa Ecuador	22 de Julio0-3El Nacional

Liga Pro Serie B tableLiga Pro Serie Bupdated 7 Oct 15:31 UTC

In the Liga Pro Serie B table, 22 de Julio sit 11th with 15 points from 22 games, while El Nacional are 12th with 12 points from 22.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ind. Juniors	22	10	9	3	28:16	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	9	11	2	25:14	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	22:14	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	9	7	6	20:23	-3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	8	7	7	25:17	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	7	10	5	24:21	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	7	8	7	19:16	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	6	10	6	17:16	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	7	6	9	17:22	-5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	5	11	6	22:22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	4	3	15	10:31	-21	15
12	El Nacional	22	2	6	14	15:32	-17	12

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.48X25%3.56249%1.83

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.39 → 3.41 +0.6%X3.40 → 3.60 +5.9%21.89 → 1.84 -2.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.51	2.42	7.5%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Betano	1.67	2.00	9.9%
1xBet	1.48	2.33	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.48	2.33	10.5%
BetVictor	1.47	1.93	19.8%
Best of all books	1.67	2.42	1.2%
Average	1.52	2.23	10.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.50	2.50	6.7%
1xBet	1.47	2.44	9.0%
William Hill	1.44	2.50	9.4%
Marathonbet	1.47	2.39	9.9%
BetVictor	1.36	2.15	20.0%
Best of all books	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Average	1.45	2.40	10.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

22 de Julio 10%Draw 45%El Nacional 45%

The statistical model rates 22 de Julio at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and El Nacional at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.48 | 3.56 | 1.83, which imply roughly 28.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro Serie B table: 22 de Julio are 11th (15 pts, 10-31 goals), El Nacional 12th (12 pts, 15-32).

Over their last five matches, 22 de Julio averaged 1 goals scored and 3.8 conceded per game; El Nacional averaged 1 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or El Nacional.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.41	3.60	1.84

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.78	1.25	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
2.43	1.40

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.45	2.40

1st half

1	X	2
3.81	2.34	2.34

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.29	17.8	1.59

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	15.7
1.5	1.14	4.85
2.5	1.52	2.24
3.5	2.22	1.54
4.5	3.90	1.20
5.5	7.75	1.08

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	9.90
1.75	1.17	4.03
2	1.22	3.64
2.25	1.34	2.85
2.75	1.61	2.02
3	1.75	1.84
3.25	2.02	1.69
3.75	2.59	1.41
4	3.14	1.27
4.25	3.42	1.23
5	6.15	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.68	1.39
+0.25	2.16	1.59
+0.5	1.80	1.78
+0.75	1.69	2.01
+1	1.49	2.39
+1.25	1.38	2.70

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	6.85	1.04
-1	6.05	1.06
-0.75	4.20	1.19
-0.25	3.03	1.31
+1.5	1.30	2.97
+1.75	1.21	3.58
+2	1.11	4.95
+2.5	1.08	5.65
+3	1.01	10.5