El Nacional vs Cumbayá• Liga Pro Serie B, Ecuador

#120.8:1.40-3FT26/09 · Quito1.6:1.4#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.50BFRX3.25BFR22.03PINMargin at best8.6%Books6Markets37Rating39 · 61Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Sep 16:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.62	3.22	2.50	9.2%
Betano	2.57	3.10	2.52	10.9%
Betfair	2.63	3.10	2.40	11.9%
1xBet	2.57	3.08	2.45	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.57	3.08	2.45	12.2%
BetVictor	2.45	2.80	2.30	20.0%
Best of all books	2.63	3.22	2.52	8.8%
Average	2.57	3.06	2.44	12.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

El NacionalCumbayá

Last 10#12Table position#100.55Points per game1.183Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.61.4Goals against · last 51.433Attack rating6750Defence rating5050Form rating5029H2H rating7128Goals model7239Overall rating61

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 20:21 UTC

El Nacional

3W 1D 6L · goals 10:15 · per match 1.0 for, 1.5 against

3 Oct	A	LDU Portoviejo	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	Cumbayá	0-3	L
18 Sep	A	Santo Domingo	0-1	L
12 Sep	H	22 de Julio	3-0	W
5 Sep	H	LDU Portoviejo	0-2	L
29 Aug	A	Gualaceo SC	0-3	L
20 Aug	A	Ind. Juniors	1-1	D
13 Aug	H	San Antonio	0-1	L
6 Aug	H	9 de Octubre	1-0	W
31 Jul	A	22 de Julio	3-1	W

Cumbayá

2W 5D 3L · goals 14:10 · per match 1.4 for, 1.0 against

26 Sep	A	El Nacional	3-0	W
17 Sep	A	22 de Julio	7-1	W
10 Sep	H	Gualaceo SC	0-1	L
4 Sep	A	Santo Domingo	1-2	L
26 Aug	H	LDU Portoviejo	0-0	D
20 Aug	A	Atletico FC	0-3	L
13 Aug	H	Santo Domingo	3-3	D
8 Aug	A	LDU Portoviejo	0-0	D
30 Jul	H	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	0-0	D
22 Jul	A	San Antonio	0-0	D

Head to head

3El Nacional wins

3draws

4Cumbayá wins

10 meetings · goals 10:11 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for El Nacional

8 Jul 2026Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	El Nacional0-1Cumbayá
24 Apr 2026Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	Cumbayá2-1El Nacional
15 Sep 2024Liga Pro	Liga Pro	El Nacional2-1Cumbayá
30 Mar 2024Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Cumbayá1-0El Nacional
26 Aug 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	El Nacional2-2Cumbayá
2 Apr 2023Liga Pro	Liga Pro	Cumbayá2-0El Nacional
25 Aug 2021Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	Cumbayá0-0El Nacional
11 Jul 2021Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	El Nacional2-1Cumbayá
6 Jun 2021Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	Cumbayá1-1El Nacional
8 Apr 2021Liga Pro Serie B	Liga Pro Serie B	El Nacional2-0Cumbayá

Liga Pro Serie B tableLiga Pro Serie Bupdated 8 Oct 00:05 UTC

In the Liga Pro Serie B table, El Nacional sit 12th with 12 points from 22 games, while Cumbayá are 10th with 26 points from 22.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ind. Juniors	22	10	9	3	28:16	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	9	11	2	25:14	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	9	10	3	22:14	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	9	7	6	20:23	-3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	8	7	7	25:17	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	7	10	5	24:21	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	7	8	7	19:16	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	6	10	6	17:16	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	7	6	9	17:22	-5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	5	11	6	22:22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	4	3	15	10:31	-21	15
12	El Nacional	22	2	6	14	15:32	-17	12

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg127%3.34X28%3.16245%1.98

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.57 → 3.34 +30.0%X3.06 → 3.15 +2.9%22.44 → 1.98 -18.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.14	1.67	6.6%
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
1xBet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
Betano	2.07	1.60	10.8%
BetVictor	1.87	1.50	20.1%
Best of all books	2.14	1.67	6.6%
Average	2.06	1.62	10.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.87	7.0%
1xBet	1.82	1.85	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.82	1.82	9.9%
BetVictor	1.65	1.70	19.4%
Best of all books	1.87	1.87	7.0%
Average	1.79	1.81	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

El Nacional 10%Draw 45%Cumbayá 45%

The statistical model rated El Nacional at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Cumbayá at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.34 | 3.16 | 1.98, which imply roughly 31.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Pro Serie B table: El Nacional are 12th (12 pts, 15-32 goals), Cumbayá 10th (26 pts, 22-22).

Over their last five matches, El Nacional averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Cumbayá averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Cumbayá.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.57	3.06	2.44

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.42	1.39	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.76	1.72

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.79	1.81

1st half

1	X	2
3.33	1.99	3.15

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.04	8.10	1.97

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.15
1.5	1.35	2.93
2.5	2.06	1.62
3.5	3.87	1.20
4.5	8.30	1.05
5.5	18.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.05	6.70
1.25	1.18	3.82
1.75	1.43	2.53
2	1.57	2.19
2.25	1.81	1.79
2.75	2.44	1.47
3	3.07	1.30
3.25	3.34	1.24
3.75	4.68	1.12
4	6.75	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.58	1.46
-0.25	2.23	1.57
0	1.84	1.77
+0.25	1.62	2.11
+0.5	1.50	2.46
+0.75	1.32	2.98

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.65	1.08
-1.25	4.80	1.12
-1	4.65	1.12
-0.75	3.15	1.29
+1	1.15	4.30
+1.25	1.12	4.76
+1.5	1.09	5.25
+2	1.01	10.0