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Atalanta vs Pafos• UEFA Europa Conference League, World

#180.5:0.03-1FT15/10 · New Balance Arena, Bergamo2.5:1.5#20

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.34BTNX6.20DAF29.901XBMargin at best0.9%Books10Markets98Rating34 · 67Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 15 Oct 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.346.109.002.1%
1xBet1.315.849.903.6%
Dafabet1.306.208.804.4%
Pinnacle1.315.829.114.5%
Bet3651.285.759.006.6%
BetVictor1.256.009.507.2%
Betfair1.295.508.507.5%
Marathonbet1.285.409.207.5%
William Hill1.305.009.008.0%
SBO1.285.327.3410.5%
Best of all books1.346.209.900.9%
Average1.295.698.946.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AtalantaPafos
Last 10#18Table position#206Form pts · last 570.5Goals for · last 52.50.0Goals against · last 51.517Attack rating83100Defence rating050Form rating500H2H rating00Goals model034Overall rating67

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 04:20 UTC

Atalanta

6W 1D 3L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

15 OctHPafos3-1W
12 OctHVenezia3-1W
20 SepAJuventus0-2L
12 SepHCagliari1-2L
5 SepAAS Roma1-2L
31 AugHBologna1-0W
27 AugAHapoel Tel Aviv1-0W
23 AugHSassuolo2-1W
20 AugHHapoel Tel Aviv0-0D
14 AugHAthletic Club1-0W

Pafos

5W 3D 2L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

15 OctAAtalanta1-3L
11 OctAAnorthosis3-1W
18 SepHAEL0-2L
13 SepAAEK Larnaca1-0W
7 SepHOlympiakos0-0D
3 SepAOmonia Nicosia1-0W
30 AugAKarmiotissa3-0W
27 AugHDinamo Tirana4-2W
20 AugADinamo Tirana1-1D
13 AugHRed Bull Salzburg3-3D

Head to head

No previous meetings between Atalanta and Pafos on record.

UEFA Europa Conference League tableUEFA Conference Leagueupdated 15 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the UEFA Europa Conference League table, Atalanta sit 18th with 0 points from 0 games, while Pafos are 20th with 0 points from 0.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Trabzonspor11004:2+23
2Mjallby AIF11002:0+23
3FC Lugano11003:2+13
4Monaco11002:1+13
5HNK Hajduk Split11002:1+13
6Panathinaikos11002:1+13
7Gent11001:0+13
8Getafe10101:101
9FC Midtjylland10101:101
10Kairat Almaty10101:101
11Egnatia Rrogozhinë10101:101
12Universitatea Craiova10101:101
13Riga10101:101
14Brighton00000:000
15FK Jablonec00000:000
16St. Truiden00000:000
17SC Freiburg00000:000
18Atalanta00000:000
19Twente00000:000
20Pafos00000:000
21FC Copenhagen00000:000
22FC Nordsjaelland00000:000
23Brann00000:000
24SC Braga00000:000
25Heart Of Midlothian00000:000
26FC Thun00000:000
27Kauno Žalgiris00000:000
28FC Iberia 199900000:000
29Lincoln Red Imps FC00000:000
30FK Crvena Zvezda10012:3-10
31Ajax10011:2-10
32Borac Banja Luka10011:2-10
33CSKA Sofia10011:2-10
34Aarhus10010:1-10
35KuPS10012:4-20
36Inter Club d'Escaldes10010:2-20

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg173%1.29X17%5.69211%8.94

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12 Oct 00:0015 Oct 18:501 1.29X 5.692 8.94
11.44 → 1.29 -10.4%X4.39 → 5.69 +29.6%26.45 → 8.94 +38.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano1.452.824.4%
Pinnacle1.373.154.7%
Bet3651.482.606.0%
Betfair1.333.008.5%
BetVictor1.392.709.0%
1xBet1.362.7010.6%
Marathonbet1.362.7010.6%
Best of all books1.483.15-0.7%
Average1.392.817.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.672.156.4%
Betano1.752.007.1%
Bet3651.801.917.9%
1xBet1.692.058.0%
Betfair1.602.208.0%
BetVictor1.672.058.7%
Marathonbet1.692.028.7%
Best of all books1.802.201.0%
Average1.702.057.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atalanta 35%Draw 35%Pafos 30%

The statistical model rated Atalanta at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Pafos at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.29 | 5.69 | 8.94, which imply roughly 77.5% for a Atalanta win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the UEFA Europa Conference League table: Atalanta are 18th (0 pts, 0-0 goals), Pafos 20th (0 pts, 0-0).

Over their last five matches, Atalanta averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Pafos averaged 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Atalanta or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 29Marco Carnesecchi

Defence

  • 77Davide Zappacosta
  • 31Thomas Kristensen
  • 23Sead Kolašinac
  • 47Lorenzo Bernasconi

Midfield

  • 8Mario Pašalić
  • 70Gianluca Gaetano
  • 99Eljif Elmas
  • 18Giacomo Raspadori
  • 59Nicola Zalewski

Attack

  • 9Gianluca Scamacca
Substitutes (9)
  • 57Marco Sportiello
  • 51Mattia Sonzogni
  • 40Relja Obrić
  • 41Javison Idele
  • 10Lazar Samardžić
  • 13Éderson
  • 11Jonathan Rowe
  • 17Charles De Ketelaere
  • 90Nikola Krstović

Pafos

4-3-3

Goalkeeper

  • 99Radosław Majecki

Defence

  • 7Bruno
  • 3Samy Mmaee
  • 4David Luiz
  • 14Nikolas Ioannou

Midfield

  • 88Pêpê
  • 26Ivan Šunjić
  • 30Vlad Dragomir

Attack

  • 8Domingos Quina
  • 18Lelê
  • 20Biel
Substitutes (11)
  • 82Petros Petrou
  • 71Michalis Papastylianou
  • 61Melinos Kais
  • 72Kosmas Ioannou
  • 60Christos Evzonas
  • 50Alexandre Brito
  • 77João Correia
  • 6Guga
  • 12Ken Sema
  • 42Georgios Michael
  • 33Anderson Silva

Match Statistics

AtalantaPafos
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal3
14Total Shots7
4Blocked Shots1
8Shots insidebox4
6Shots outsidebox3
11Fouls10
4Corner Kicks2
66%Ball Possession34%
4Goalkeeper Saves3
692Total passes351
645Passes accurate300
93%Passes %85%
2.69Expected Goals0.81
0.59Goals Prevented0.59

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.295.698.94

Double chance

1XX212
1.063.461.12

Draw no bet

12
1.086.96

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.702.05

1st half

1X2
1.672.797.20

2nd half

1X2
1.543.236.88

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 11.7718.153.9
HT X4.278.6918.0
HT 219.019.715.1

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3121.53.43

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0217.3
1.51.106.15
2.51.392.81
3.52.021.78
4.53.231.30
5.55.821.11
6.511.51.04
7.521.31.01
8.550.5–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0115.0
1.751.105.10
21.124.70
2.251.283.17
2.751.502.43
31.592.26
3.251.792.00
3.752.171.61
42.621.45
4.252.741.35
4.753.501.22
54.551.13
5.254.801.12
68.301.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.52.801.39
-2.252.461.48
-22.231.61
-1.751.971.82
-1.51.782.02
-1.251.592.27
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-4.58.001.02
-47.501.03
-3.755.781.09
-3.54.831.14
-3.254.301.16
-33.981.19
-2.753.241.30
-11.392.81
-0.751.313.15
-0.51.323.30
-0.251.194.20
01.076.77
+0.251.076.43
+0.51.107.00
+1.51.0113.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
2.51.273.55
3.51.602.25
41.851.91
4.52.151.65
5.53.151.33
6.54.701.17

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0113.0
4.51.0310.5
5.51.048.20
6.51.125.13
7.51.263.38
8.51.502.43
9.51.861.87
10.52.391.51
11.53.211.29
12.54.521.15
13.56.451.08
14.58.251.05
15.510.51.03
16.512.01.02
17.514.01.01
11 more lines
LineOverUnder
7.751.302.97
8.251.402.66
8.751.532.28
91.602.24
9.251.741.98
9.751.941.75
102.091.68
10.252.221.57
10.752.521.41
112.871.34
11.253.021.32

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