Benfica vs Celtic• UEFA Europa League, World

#123.0:0.84-1FT15/10 · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon1.0:3.0#29

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.26DAFX8.11PIN214.3MARMargin5.1%Books10Markets109Rating71 · 29Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 15 Oct 16:28 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.22	7.40	13.5	2.9%
Marathonbet	1.20	7.90	14.3	3.0%
1xBet	1.20	7.90	14.2	3.0%
Pinnacle	1.20	8.11	12.8	3.5%
Dafabet	1.26	6.60	11.0	3.6%
Bet365	1.20	7.50	12.0	5.0%
BetVictor	1.15	8.00	13.0	7.1%
William Hill	1.18	7.00	12.0	7.4%
SBO	1.19	7.05	10.6	7.7%
Betfair	1.15	7.50	13.0	8.0%
Best of all books	1.26	8.11	14.3	-1.3%
Average	1.19	7.50	12.6	4.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BenficaCeltic

Last 10#12Table position#293.00Points per game0.0012Form pts · last 563.0Goals for · last 51.00.8Goals against · last 53.094Attack rating643Defence rating57100Form rating080H2H rating200Goals model071Overall rating29

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 15 Oct 20:01 UTC

Benfica

9W 0D 1L · goals 30:7 · per match 3.0 for, 0.7 against

11 Oct	H	Vitória SC	2-0	W
20 Sep	A	FC Porto	1-3	L
16 Sep	A	AC Milan	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	GIL Vicente	3-1	W
9 Sep	A	Moreirense	4-0	W
5 Sep	A	Maritimo	3-0	W
31 Aug	H	Estoril	2-1	W
27 Aug	A	Aarhus	3-1	W
20 Aug	H	Aarhus	3-1	W
17 Aug	A	Casa Pia	7-0	W

Celtic

6W 0D 4L · goals 15:14 · per match 1.5 for, 1.4 against

11 Oct	A	Motherwell	2-0	W
20 Sep	H	Rangers	0-1	L
17 Sep	H	Ferencvarosi TC	1-3	L
13 Sep	A	Rangers	0-3	L
9 Sep	A	ST Johnstone	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	ST Mirren	2-1	W
2 Sep	H	Aberdeen	3-0	W
29 Aug	H	Falkirk	2-1	W
25 Aug	A	Lask Linz	1-5	L
19 Aug	H	Lask Linz	3-0	W

Head to head

1Benfica wins

1draws

0Celtic wins

2 meetings · goals 2:1 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Benfica

20 Nov 2012UEFA Champions League	UEFA Champions League	Benfica2-1Celtic
19 Sep 2012UEFA Champions League	UEFA Champions League	Celtic0-0Benfica

UEFA Europa League tableUEFA Europa Leagueupdated 15 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the UEFA Europa League table, Benfica sit 12th with 3 points from 1 games, while Celtic are 29th with 0 points from 1.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Bayer Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6:0	+6	6
2	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	0	4:0	+4	6
3	Lyon	2	2	0	0	5:3	+2	6
4	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	3:1	+2	6
5	Sparta Praha	2	1	1	0	5:2	+3	4
6	Union St. Gilloise	2	1	1	0	4:1	+3	4
7	Juventus	1	1	0	0	5:0	+5	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	6:3	+3	3
9	Beşiktaş	1	1	0	0	4:1	+3	3
10	AC Milan	2	1	0	1	4:2	+2	3
11	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3:1	+2	3
12	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2:0	+2	3
13	OFI	1	1	0	0	2:0	+2	3
14	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	2:1	+1	3
15	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	2:1	+1	3
16	Torreense	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
17	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
18	Red Bull Salzburg	2	1	0	1	1:4	-3	3
19	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
20	Rennes	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
21	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
24	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	0	1	1	1:2	-1	1
25	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
26	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
27	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
28	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
29	Celtic	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0:2	-2	0
31	Marseille	1	0	0	1	1:4	-3	0
32	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	1:4	-3	0
33	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0:3	-3	0
34	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0:5	-5	0
35	Celje	2	0	0	2	0:5	-5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	0	2	0:8	-8	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg180%1.19X13%7.5827%12.7

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.26 → 1.20 -4.8%X5.87 → 7.50 +27.8%29.82 → 12.6 +28.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.27	3.88	4.5%
Betano	1.31	3.45	5.3%
Bet365	1.30	3.50	5.5%
Betfair	1.25	3.70	7.0%
1xBet	1.26	3.54	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.26	3.54	7.6%
BetVictor	1.25	3.60	7.8%
Best of all books	1.31	3.88	2.1%
Average	1.27	3.60	6.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Bet365	1.80	1.95	6.8%
Betano	1.70	2.07	7.1%
Betfair	1.75	2.00	7.1%
1xBet	1.71	2.04	7.5%
Marathonbet	1.71	2.02	8.0%
BetVictor	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Best of all books	1.80	2.15	2.1%
Average	1.72	2.04	7.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Benfica 45%Draw 45%Celtic 10%

The statistical model rated Benfica at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Celtic at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.19 | 7.58 | 12.74, which imply roughly 84% for a Benfica win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the UEFA Europa League table: Benfica are 12th (3 pts, 2-0 goals), Celtic 29th (0 pts, 1-3).

Over their last five matches, Benfica averaged 3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Celtic averaged 1 scored and 3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Benfica and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Coach: Marco Silva

Goalkeeper

1A. Trubin

Defence

6A. Bah
44Tomás Araújo
2C. Lenglet
26S. Dahl

Midfield

8F. Aursnes
36João Palhinha
11D. Lukebakio
10H. Sudakov
25G. Prestianni

Attack

22J. Durán

Substitutes (12)

18L. Barreiro
72A. Cabral
3A. Circati
30C. Echeverri
34S. El Karouani
88Tiago Freitas
33Gabriel Indio
16Manu
14V. Pavlidis
27Rafa
21A. Schjelderup
24Samuel Soares

Celtic

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. O'Neill

Goalkeeper

1V. Sinisalo

Defence

51Colby Donovan
47D. Murray
6A. Trusty
63K. Tierney

Midfield

42C. McGregor
22M. Baur
11C. Durán
18O. Sørensen
17S. Tounekti

Attack

9K. Høgh

Substitutes (12)

49J. Forrest
23H. Hassan
26S. Johnstone
65Liam Kennedy
3J. Lotomba
14L. McCowan
8B. Nygren
21A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
56A. Ralston
5L. Scales
62L. Clearie
19C. Osmand

Match Statistics

BenficaCeltic

2.59Expected Goals1.25

525Passes accurate457

21Shots insidebox12

5Shots outsidebox2

8Blocked Shots2

6Free Kicks9

7Shots on Goal7

6Goalkeeper Saves3

11Shots off Goal5

2Offsides2

576Total passes514

26Total Shots14

3Yellow Cards0

8Corner Kicks6

9Fouls7

0Red Cards0

53%Ball Possession47%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.20	7.50	12.6

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.04	4.70	1.09

Draw no bet

1	2
1.04	9.64

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.72	2.04

1st half

1	X	2
1.51	3.21	8.68

2nd half

1	X	2
1.42	3.73	8.04

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.57	22.0	59.7
HT X	4.33	11.7	24.6
HT 2	18.5	24.0	20.2

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.25	32.5	3.90

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	21.0
1.5	1.06	7.86
2.5	1.27	3.60
3.5	1.73	2.11
4.5	2.60	1.47
5.5	4.37	1.19
6.5	7.96	1.07
7.5	13.7	1.03
8.5	22.7	1.01
9.5	50.5	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	21.0
1.75	1.05	7.26
2	1.06	6.85
2.25	1.16	4.61
2.75	1.37	3.00
3	1.46	2.74
3.25	1.57	2.41
3.75	1.89	1.93
4	2.12	1.71
4.25	2.31	1.58
4.75	2.88	1.36
5	3.56	1.24
5.25	3.83	1.19
6	6.55	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	2.52	1.50
-2.5	2.22	1.65
-2.25	2.00	1.80
-2	1.78	2.02
-1.75	1.62	2.30
-1.5	1.53	2.49

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-5	11.5	1.01
-4.5	6.05	1.06
-4.25	6.25	1.12
-4	5.57	1.10
-3.75	4.23	1.17
-3.5	3.44	1.25
-3.25	3.30	1.30
-3	3.02	1.35
-1.25	1.36	3.01
-1	1.26	3.74
-0.75	1.22	4.14
-0.5	1.18	4.65
-0.25	1.10	6.26
0	1.04	8.65

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	10.0
1.5	1.16	4.90
2.5	1.45	2.63
3.5	2.13	1.68
4.5	2.98	1.36
5.5	4.35	1.19
6.5	6.60	1.09
7.5	9.25	1.04
8.5	11.8	1.02

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.17	4.50
3	1.75	2.07
4	2.81	1.39

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
4.5	1.01	15.7
5.5	1.02	11.1
6.5	1.05	7.63
7.5	1.12	5.13
8.5	1.24	3.56
9.5	1.45	2.59
10.5	1.76	1.99
11.5	2.18	1.62
12.5	2.81	1.37
13.5	3.76	1.22
14.5	5.23	1.11
15.5	7.47	1.06
16.5	9.00	1.04
17.5	10.8	1.03
18.5	12.5	1.01

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
8.75	1.28	3.08
9	1.42	2.59
9.25	1.42	2.63
9.75	1.55	2.26
10	1.72	2.07
10.25	1.72	1.98
10.75	1.94	1.77
11	2.13	1.71
11.25	2.18	1.59
11.75	2.47	1.44
12.25	2.91	1.34