Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United• UEFA Champions League, World

#261.0:2.02-0FTToday · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid4.0:0.0#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.96DAFX3.95DAF24.261XBMargin4.4%Books10Markets101Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Oct 16:17 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.91	3.88	4.26	1.6%
Betano	1.91	3.75	4.25	2.6%
Pinnacle	1.90	3.82	4.14	3.0%
Marathonbet	1.88	3.82	4.20	3.2%
Dafabet	1.96	3.95	3.60	4.1%
Betfair	1.90	3.75	4.00	4.3%
BetVictor	1.87	3.80	3.90	5.4%
Bet365	1.85	3.75	3.90	6.4%
William Hill	1.85	3.60	3.90	7.5%
SBO	1.92	3.61	3.54	8.0%
Best of all books	1.96	3.95	4.26	-0.2%
Average	1.89	3.77	3.97	4.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico MadridManchester United

Last 10#26Table position#50.00Points per game3.0012Form pts · last 551.0Goals for · last 54.02.0Goals against · last 50.020Attack rating800Defence rating1000Form rating10071H2H rating290Goals model051Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 16:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid

7W 1D 2L · goals 21:11 · per match 2.1 for, 1.1 against

10 Oct	A	Alaves	2-1	W
20 Sep	H	Real Madrid	2-1	W
16 Sep	H	Osasuna	4-0	W
13 Sep	A	Real Sociedad	3-0	W
9 Sep	A	Liverpool	1-2	L
5 Sep	A	Athletic Club	0-3	L
29 Aug	A	Sevilla	3-1	W
23 Aug	H	Villarreal	2-2	D
19 Aug	H	Malaga	2-0	W
14 Aug	A	Marseille	2-1	W

Manchester United

2W 4D 4L · goals 18:17 · per match 1.8 for, 1.7 against

10 Oct	H	Tottenham	1-1	D
20 Sep	A	Fulham	1-1	D
16 Sep	H	Brighton	2-3	L
13 Sep	H	Manchester City	0-1	L
10 Sep	H	Sabah FA	4-0	W
6 Sep	A	Everton	2-2	D
30 Aug	H	Ipswich	5-2	W
22 Aug	A	Hull City	0-2	L
15 Aug	H	AC Milan	2-4	L
12 Aug	H	Leeds	1-1	D

Head to head

3Atletico Madrid wins

1draws

1Manchester United wins

5 meetings · goals 5:3 · last 5: 3W 1D 1L for Atletico Madrid

1 Aug 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Manchester United2-1Atletico Madrid
30 Jul 2022Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Atletico Madrid1-0Manchester United
30 Jul 2022Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Atletico Madrid1-0Manchester United
15 Mar 2022UEFA Champions League	UEFA Champions League	Manchester United0-1Atletico Madrid
23 Feb 2022UEFA Champions League	UEFA Champions League	Atletico Madrid1-1Manchester United

UEFA Champions League tableUEFA Champions Leagueupdated 13 Oct 20:40 UTC

In the UEFA Champions League table, Atletico Madrid sit 26th with 0 points from 1 games, while Manchester United are 5th with 3 points from 1.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Sporting CP	2	2	0	0	5:1	+4	6
2	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	6:1	+5	3
3	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5:0	+5	3
4	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5:1	+4	3
5	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	4:0	+4	3
6	Como	1	1	0	0	4:1	+3	3
7	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3:1	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2:0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3:2	+1	3
10	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3:2	+1	3
11	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3:2	+1	3
12	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2:1	+1	3
13	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2:1	+1	3
14	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
15	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	1:0	+1	3
16	Lens	2	1	0	1	3:4	-1	3
17	Sabah FA	2	1	0	1	2:4	-2	3
18	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
19	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
20	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
21	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
22	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0
23	Lille	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0:2	-2	0
32	Slavia Praha	2	0	0	2	2:5	-3	0
33	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1:4	-3	0
34	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	1:5	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	1:6	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0:5	-5	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.85X25%3.84223%4.11

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.12 → 1.90 -10.4%X3.74 → 3.77 +0.8%23.10 → 3.97 +28.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.74	2.27	1.5%
Pinnacle	1.71	2.23	3.3%
Betano	1.67	2.27	3.9%
SBO	1.67	2.26	4.1%
Marathonbet	1.69	2.21	4.4%
Bet365	1.67	2.20	5.3%
Betfair	1.67	2.20	5.3%
BetVictor	1.62	2.12	8.9%
Best of all books	1.74	2.27	1.5%
Average	1.68	2.22	4.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Betano	1.57	2.32	6.8%
Betfair	1.60	2.25	6.9%
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
1xBet	1.59	2.24	7.5%
Marathonbet	1.59	2.21	8.1%
BetVictor	1.55	2.25	9.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.32	4.8%
Average	1.59	2.25	7.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Madrid 10%Draw 45%Manchester United 45%

The statistical model rated Atletico Madrid at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Manchester United at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.85 | 3.84 | 4.11, which imply roughly 26% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the UEFA Champions League table: Atletico Madrid are 26th (0 pts, 1-2 goals), Manchester United 5th (3 pts, 4-0).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Madrid averaged 1 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Manchester United averaged 4 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Manchester United.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Coach: D. Simeone

Goalkeeper

13J. Oblak

Defence

14Marcos Llorente
21C. Romero
17D. Hancko
22Álex Grimaldo

Midfield

20G. Simeone
8Pablo Barrios
5J. Cardoso
10Álex Baena

Attack

7Lee Kang-In
19J. Álvarez

Substitutes (12)

46J. Castillo
15J. David
27J. Dominguez
23M. Hjulmand
24Robin Le Normand
11A. Lookman
4Rodrigo Mendoza
1J. Musso
16Arnau Ortiz
18Marc Pubill
9A. Sørloth
30Dani MartÃnez

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. Carrick

Goalkeeper

1S. Lammens

Defence

15L. Yoro
26A. Heaven
6Lisandro Martínez
2Diogo Dalot

Midfield

20C. Baleba
17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes
18Y. Tielemans
9M. Rashford

Attack

19B. Mbeumo

Substitutes (12)

57Daniel Armer
11J. Zirkzee
10Matheus Cunha
12K. Darlow
4M. de Ligt
16A. Diallo
39T. Fletcher
31S. Lacey
5H. Maguire
45Dermot William Mee
7M. Mount
41H. Amass

Match Statistics

Atletico MadridManchester United

1.5Expected Goals1.04

512Passes accurate313

6Shots insidebox6

5Shots outsidebox3

1Blocked Shots2

12Free Kicks9

4Shots on Goal4

4Goalkeeper Saves2

5Shots off Goal3

1Offsides1

582Total passes375

10Total Shots9

1Yellow Cards1

2Corner Kicks4

0Red Cards1

11Fouls13

58%Ball Possession42%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.90	3.77	3.97

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.24	1.91	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.38	2.83

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.59	2.25

1st half

1	X	2
2.44	2.32	4.16

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.65	13.5	2.42

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.3
1.5	1.20	4.31
2.5	1.68	2.22
3.5	2.59	1.48
4.5	4.69	1.16
5.5	8.68	1.05
6.5	15.2	1.02
7.5	32.8	1.01
8.5	50.5	–

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	9.40
1.25	1.10	5.61
1.75	1.25	3.76
2	1.30	3.35
2.25	1.51	2.60
2.75	1.84	1.99
3	2.06	1.75
3.25	2.31	1.58
3.75	3.00	1.34
4	3.57	1.27
4.25	3.76	1.23
4.75	5.35	1.09
5	7.20	1.03
5.25	6.69	1.05
5.75	9.30	–
6	10.0	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.85	1.41
-1	2.56	1.52
-0.75	2.10	1.72
-0.5	1.88	1.96
-0.25	1.65	2.27
0	1.39	3.00

16 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	12.3	1.04
-3	11.5	1.01
-2.75	7.26	1.04
-2.5	6.13	1.09
-2.25	5.69	1.11
-2	5.37	1.13
-1.75	3.81	1.24
-1.5	3.20	1.33
+0.25	1.30	3.35
+0.5	1.28	3.65
+0.75	1.18	4.46
+1	1.07	7.07
+1.25	1.07	7.38
+1.5	1.05	7.78
+2	1.01	10.2
+2.5	1.01	12.3

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.0
1.5	1.12	5.80
2.5	1.36	3.05
3.5	1.79	1.98
4.5	2.66	1.46
5.5	3.60	1.26
6.5	5.40	1.13
7.5	7.90	1.06
8.5	10.5	1.03

2 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.56	2.42
4	2.18	1.71

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	13.0
4.5	1.02	11.8
5.5	1.05	7.19
6.5	1.13	4.77
7.5	1.27	3.22
8.5	1.52	2.36
9.5	1.93	1.83
10.5	2.43	1.49
11.5	3.23	1.27
12.5	4.59	1.14
13.5	6.24	1.07
14.5	9.63	1.03
15.5	13.6	1.02
16.5	12.0	1.02
17.5	14.0	1.01

17 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.06	5.29
7	1.15	3.75
7.75	1.25	3.18
8	1.38	2.76
8.25	1.36	2.64
8.75	1.52	2.30
9	1.74	2.03
9.25	1.74	2.02
9.75	1.96	1.79
10	2.24	1.59
10.25	2.17	1.54
10.75	2.50	1.40
11	2.82	1.32
11.25	2.90	1.27
12	3.62	1.16
13	4.77	1.08
14	5.62	1.04