Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United• Emperor Cup, Japan

3.0:1.02-0FTToday · Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, Osaka3.0:0.5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.44PINX4.68PIN26.69PINMargin at best5.8%Books7Markets52Rating39 · 61Exp. goals L53.8

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Oct 12:40 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.62	3.92	4.83	7.9%
Pinnacle	1.62	3.84	4.85	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.60	3.92	4.85	8.6%
BetVictor	1.60	3.70	5.00	9.5%
Betfair	1.55	3.80	5.00	10.8%
Bet365	1.55	3.90	4.75	11.2%
William Hill	1.62	3.50	4.60	12.0%
Best of all books	1.62	3.92	5.00	7.2%
Average	1.59	3.80	4.84	9.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Cerezo OsakaKagoshima United

Last 108Form pts · last 5133.0Goals for · last 53.01.0Goals against · last 50.533Attack rating6750Defence rating5033Form rating670H2H rating00Goals model10039Overall rating61

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 20:21 UTC

Cerezo Osaka

5W 2D 3L · goals 12:13 · per match 1.2 for, 1.3 against

7 Oct	H	Kagoshima United	2-0	W
29 Sep	A	Fujieda MYFC	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	V-varen Nagasaki	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-6	L
6 Sep	H	Tokyo Verdy	0-0	D
2 Sep	H	Kashiwa Reysol	2-0	W
29 Aug	A	Vissel Kobe	0-1	L
26 Aug	H	FC Gifu	3-1	W
22 Aug	H	Shimizu S-pulse	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Avispa Fukuoka	0-3	L

Kagoshima United

7W 2D 1L · goals 21:11 · per match 2.1 for, 1.1 against

4 Oct	H	Fukushima United	3-2	W
26 Sep	A	Kitakyushu	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Tochigi SC	3-1	W
13 Sep	A	Biwako Shiga	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	FC Ryukyu	2-1	W
2 Sep	H	Consadole Sapporo	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3	W
26 Aug	A	Albirex Niigata	4-0	W
22 Aug	H	FC Gifu	0-0	D
19 Aug	H	Renofa Yamaguchi	2-1	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Cerezo Osaka and Kagoshima United on record.

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg167%1.35X19%4.69213%6.78

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.59 → 1.41 -11.3%X3.80 → 4.33 +13.9%24.84 → 6.13 +26.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.90	1.90	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.78	1.99	6.4%
1xBet	1.80	1.93	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.93	7.4%
BetVictor	1.77	1.91	8.9%
Best of all books	1.90	1.99	2.9%
Average	1.81	1.93	7.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.75	7.1%
1xBet	1.79	1.92	7.9%
BetVictor	1.78	1.93	8.0%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.89	8.8%
William Hill	1.80	1.85	9.6%
Best of all books	2.00	1.93	1.8%
Average	1.83	1.87	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Cerezo Osaka 10%Draw 45%Kagoshima United 45%

The statistical model rated Cerezo Osaka at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Kagoshima United at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.35 | 4.69 | 6.78, which imply roughly 21.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Cerezo Osaka averaged 3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Kagoshima United averaged 3 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Kagoshima United.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.59	3.80	4.84

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.15	2.18	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.22	3.89

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.83	1.87

1st half

1	X	2
2.11	2.28	5.19

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.47	13.3	2.82

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	10.2
1.5	1.23	3.60
2.5	1.81	1.93
3.5	3.00	1.33
4.5	5.72	1.10
5.5	12.8	1.03
6.5	29.0	1.01

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.80
1	–	9.20
1.25	1.11	4.95
1.75	1.27	3.14
2	1.36	2.79
2.25	1.58	2.23
2.75	1.98	1.73
3	2.31	1.52
3.25	2.62	1.38
3.75	3.50	1.22
4	4.80	1.12
4.25	5.15	1.10
4.75	7.30	1.04
5	8.40	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.64	1.40
-1.25	2.39	1.50
-1	2.06	1.70
-0.75	1.76	1.95
-0.5	1.59	2.22
-0.25	1.40	2.65

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3	9.35	1.01
-2.75	6.75	1.04
-2.5	5.20	1.10
-2.25	4.80	1.11
-2	4.40	1.14
-1.75	3.26	1.27
0	1.22	3.64
+0.25	1.17	4.16
+0.75	1.07	6.17
+1	1.03	8.10
+1.5	1.02	9.10