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Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle• CONMEBOL Libertadores, World

#11.8:0.41-1FT18/09 · Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro1.8:0.8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.27AVGX5.72AVG210.2AVGMargin6.1%Books9Markets98Rating60 · 40Exp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Sep 20:03 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.375.208.504.0%
Betano1.395.007.904.6%
Bet3651.385.257.005.8%
Pinnacle1.345.098.146.6%
Marathonbet1.334.958.107.7%
William Hill1.364.607.508.6%
Betfair1.335.007.009.5%
BetVictor1.334.508.009.9%
SBO1.324.266.6614.2%
Best of all books1.395.258.502.8%
Average1.354.877.647.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
Last 109Form pts · last 5101.8Goals for · last 51.80.4Goals against · last 50.850Attack rating5067Defence rating3352Form rating4860H2H rating4077Goals model2360Overall rating40

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 23:30 UTC

Flamengo

7W 3D 0L · goals 16:5 · per match 1.6 for, 0.5 against

16 OctAEstudiantes L.P.0-0D
11 OctHFluminense1-0W
8 OctASantos2-2D
20 SepHRB Bragantino2-1W
18 SepHIndependiente del Valle1-1D
13 SepHCorinthians2-1W
11 SepAIndependiente del Valle2-0W
6 SepARemo1-0W
2 SepHMirassol2-0W
30 AugHBotafogo3-0W

Independiente del Valle

6W 2D 2L · goals 20:14 · per match 2.0 for, 1.4 against

10 OctHAucas2-1W
25 SepAGualaceo SC2-0W
18 SepAFlamengo1-1D
13 SepALibertad3-2W
11 SepHFlamengo0-2L
5 SepHMacara3-1W
3 SepABarcelona SC1-2L
29 AugHUniversidad Catolica2-2D
26 AugHDeportes Tolima3-1W
22 AugALeones del Norte3-2W

Head to head

4Flamengo wins
1draws
2Independiente del Valle wins

7 meetings · goals 12:8 · last 7: 4W 1D 2L for Flamengo

11 Sep 2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL LibertadoresIndependiente del Valle0-2Flamengo
1 Mar 2023CONMEBOL RecopaCONMEBOL RecopaFlamengo1-0Independiente del Valle
22 Feb 2023CONMEBOL RecopaCONMEBOL RecopaIndependiente del Valle1-0Flamengo
1 Oct 2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL LibertadoresFlamengo4-0Independiente del Valle
18 Sep 2020CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL LibertadoresIndependiente del Valle5-0Flamengo
27 Feb 2020CONMEBOL RecopaCONMEBOL RecopaFlamengo3-0Independiente del Valle
20 Feb 2020CONMEBOL RecopaCONMEBOL RecopaIndependiente del Valle2-2Flamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores tableGroup Aupdated 15 Oct 05:00 UTC

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Flamengo651014:2+1216
2Estudiantes L.P.62316:5+19
3Independiente Medellin62136:11-57
4Cusco60154:12-81

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg174%1.27X16%5.7229%10.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano1.752.153.7%
1xBet1.712.194.1%
Pinnacle1.682.195.2%
Bet3651.672.156.4%
Marathonbet1.672.136.8%
BetVictor1.652.078.9%
Best of all books1.752.192.8%
Average1.692.155.8%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano2.021.756.6%
Bet3652.001.757.1%
William Hill1.911.807.9%
BetVictor1.931.788.0%
1xBet1.951.768.1%
Marathonbet1.951.748.8%
Best of all books2.021.805.1%
Average1.961.767.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Flamengo 45%Draw 45%Independiente del Valle 10%

The statistical model rated Flamengo at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Independiente del Valle at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.27 | 5.72 | 10.16, which imply roughly 78.7% for a Flamengo win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Flamengo averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Independiente del Valle averaged 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Flamengo or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

Coach: Leonardo Jardim

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Rossi

Defence

  • 22Emerson Royal
  • 3Léo Ortiz
  • 4Léo Pereira
  • 6Ayrton Lucas

Midfield

  • 5E. Pulgar
  • 21Jorginho
  • 15J. Carrascal
  • 20Lucas Paquetá
  • 16Samuel Lino

Attack

  • 27Bruno Henrique
Substitutes (12)
  • 30J. Freitas
  • 9Pedro
  • 26Alex Sandro
  • 19G. Plata
  • 2G. Varela
  • 44Vitão
  • 42Andrew
  • 13Danilo
  • 7Luiz Araújo
  • 10G. de Arrascaeta
  • 18N. de la Cruz
  • 8Saúl

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

Coach: Joaquín Papa

Goalkeeper

  • 1A. Quintana

Defence

  • 13Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla
  • 14M. Carabajal
  • 5R. Schunke
  • 19L. Loor

Midfield

  • 6J. Alcívar
  • 11M. Perelló
  • 28H. Quintana
  • 10J. Sornoza
  • 31Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez

Attack

  • 99D. Reasco
Substitutes (12)
  • 15G. Cortéz
  • 4J. Espinoza
  • 18Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
  • 32J. Méndez
  • 8Y. Ochoa
  • 70M. Peralta
  • 56E. Quintero
  • 17A. Rodríguez
  • 33Andy René Velasco García
  • 23Juan Viacava
  • 52Y. Vásquez
  • 16R. Briones

Match Statistics

FlamengoIndependiente del Valle
411Passes accurate346
5Shots insidebox6
5Shots outsidebox2
3Blocked Shots2
3Free Kicks13
3Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves2
4Shots off Goal2
481Total passes425
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots8
3Yellow Cards1
5Corner Kicks3
0Offsides2
13Fouls3
52%Ball Possession48%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.354.877.64

Double chance

1XX212
1.073.021.15

Draw no bet

12
1.115.98

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.961.76

1st half

1X2
1.792.497.16

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3315.13.46

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0313.1
1.51.204.15
2.51.692.15
3.52.661.43
4.54.821.15
5.59.131.04
6.518.71.01
7.541.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0510.5
1.251.095.40
1.751.233.51
21.303.25
2.251.502.52
2.751.861.92
32.101.68
3.252.361.53
3.753.041.29
43.881.18
4.254.201.15
4.755.601.08
57.701.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-22.801.40
-1.752.321.59
-1.52.041.76
-1.251.792.00
-11.532.38
-0.751.412.74
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-4.515.51.01
-414.51.02
-3.56.481.08
-3.256.201.08
-35.551.08
-2.754.171.17
-2.53.461.26
-2.253.131.32
-0.51.373.14
-0.251.213.89
01.095.85
+0.251.076.35
+0.51.106.80
+11.0117.0
+1.51.0213.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
1.51.067.80
2.51.194.30
3.51.452.62
4.51.911.82
5.52.621.45
6.53.851.24
7.55.601.12
8.58.001.06
9.510.51.03

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0112.5
4.51.0310.0
5.51.076.10
6.51.144.65
7.51.303.09
8.51.582.24
9.51.991.75
10.52.591.44
11.53.521.24
12.55.021.12
13.56.011.07
14.59.001.04
15.511.01.02
16.512.51.01
15 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.065.10
71.173.59
7.751.312.92
81.402.68
8.251.452.45
8.751.622.11
91.771.99
9.251.841.86
9.752.081.65
102.261.55
10.252.391.47
10.752.781.34
112.831.28
123.801.15
134.971.07