NEC vs Express• Premier League, Uganda

#32.3:0.50-0FTToday · MTN Omondi Stadium0.8:1.0#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.47PINX3.90B36529.00BTNMargin at best4.8%Books9Markets53Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 13:06 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.45	3.75	7.00	9.9%
Betano	1.35	3.90	9.00	10.8%
1xBet	1.46	3.58	6.89	10.9%
Betfair	1.40	3.80	7.50	11.1%
Bet365	1.33	3.90	9.50	11.4%
Marathonbet	1.45	3.58	6.50	12.3%
Pinnacle	1.47	3.61	5.96	12.5%
William Hill	1.44	3.40	6.00	15.5%
BetVictor	1.33	3.40	6.50	20.0%
Best of all books	1.47	3.90	9.00	4.8%
Average	1.41	3.66	7.21	12.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NECExpress

Last 10#3Table position#112.50Points per game1.0010Form pts · last 542.3Goals for · last 50.80.5Goals against · last 51.075Attack rating2567Defence rating3371Form rating2962H2H rating38100Goals model067Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 13:31 UTC

NEC

6W 2D 2L · goals 15:8 · per match 1.5 for, 0.8 against

15 Sep	H	URA	4-1	W
11 Sep	A	Mbarara City	0-0	D
1 Sep	H	Lugazi	3-1	W
29 Aug	A	KCCA	2-0	W
23 May	A	Calvary	0-2	L
20 May	H	SC Villa	1-4	L
13 May	H	Buhimba Saints	3-0	W
9 May	A	Kitara	1-0	W
28 Apr	A	BUL	1-0	W
24 Apr	H	Mbarara City	0-0	D

Express

3W 2D 5L · goals 9:12 · per match 0.9 for, 1.2 against

17 Sep	H	Kitara	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	SC Villa	0-2	L
3 Sep	H	KCCA	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	BUL	0-1	L
23 May	A	Vipers	0-2	L
19 May	H	Lugazi	0-0	D
12 May	H	Kitara	3-2	W
8 May	A	Buhimba Saints	2-0	W
28 Apr	A	Mbarara City	1-2	L
24 Apr	H	BUL	0-2	L

Head to head

2NEC wins

2draws

2Express wins

6 meetings · goals 8:9 · last 6: 2W 2D 2L for NEC

21 Apr 2026Premier League	Premier League	Express0-0NEC
31 Jan 2026Premier League	Premier League	NEC0-0Express
27 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	NEC3-1Express
3 Oct 2024Premier League	Premier League	Express2-1NEC
13 May 2024Premier League	Premier League	Express1-2NEC
21 Dec 2023Premier League	Premier League	NEC2-5Express

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 8 Oct 01:21 UTC

In the Premier League table, NEC sit 3rd with 10 points from 4 games, while Express are 11th with 4 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	BUL	4	4	0	0	11:3	+8	12
2	SC Villa	5	3	2	0	8:2	+6	11
3	NEC	4	3	1	0	9:2	+7	10
4	Blacks Power	4	3	0	1	5:3	+2	9
5	Police	4	2	1	1	3:1	+2	7
6	Entebbe UPPC	4	2	1	1	3:2	+1	7
7	Maroons	5	2	0	3	8:6	+2	6
8	Lugazi	5	2	0	3	4:9	-5	6
9	Kitara	3	1	2	0	3:2	+1	5
10	UPDF	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
11	Express	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
12	KCCA	4	1	1	2	1:4	-3	4
13	Vipers	2	1	0	1	3:1	+2	3
14	URA	3	1	0	2	3:6	-3	3
15	Ntugasaze	5	1	0	4	3:11	-8	3
16	Mbarara City	4	0	2	2	0:2	-2	2
17	Kataka	4	0	2	2	2:6	-4	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	4	0	1	3	1:6	-5	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg163%1.41X24%3.66212%7.21

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.30 → 1.41 +8.5%X4.00 → 3.66 -8.5%29.50 → 7.21 -24.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
Pinnacle	2.19	1.59	8.6%
1xBet	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Betano	2.18	1.55	10.4%
BetVictor	1.95	1.45	20.2%
Best of all books	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Average	2.17	1.56	10.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
1xBet	2.31	1.52	9.1%
William Hill	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.31	1.50	10.0%
BetVictor	2.20	1.33	20.6%
Best of all books	2.31	1.57	7.0%
Average	2.25	1.50	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

NEC 50%Draw 50%Express 0%

The statistical model rated NEC at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Express at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.41 | 3.66 | 7.21, which imply roughly 70.9% for a NEC win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Premier League table: NEC are 3rd (10 pts, 9-2 goals), Express 11th (4 pts, 3-4).

Over their last five matches, NEC averaged 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Express averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : NEC.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.41	3.66	7.21

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.05	2.55	1.18

Draw no bet

1	2
1.08	5.33

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.25	1.50

1st half

1	X	2
1.96	2.05	7.61

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.38	6.68	4.15

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	7.23
1.5	1.38	2.70
2.5	2.17	1.56
3.5	3.97	1.18
4.5	7.80	1.04
5.5	19.0	1.01

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.06	6.30
1	1.08	5.70
1.25	1.23	3.42
1.75	1.49	2.36
2	1.65	2.03
2.25	1.88	1.71
2.75	2.52	1.42
3	3.21	1.26
3.25	3.58	1.21
3.75	4.95	1.11
4	7.00	1.04
4.25	7.31	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.96	1.31
-1.5	2.35	1.48
-1.25	2.03	1.64
-1	1.74	1.87
-0.75	1.60	2.12
-0.5	1.45	2.45

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.30	1.02
-3.25	7.78	1.02
-3	8.90	1.01
-2.75	6.10	1.06
-2.5	4.75	1.12
-2.25	4.39	1.14
-2	3.98	1.17
-0.25	1.29	3.07
0	1.11	4.90
+0.25	1.08	5.45
+0.75	1.02	8.30