Maroons vs Lugazi• Premier League, Uganda

#121.3:1.53-0FTToday1.0:1.5#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.85WHX3.00B36525.16PINMargin at best6.8%Books4Markets43Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 7 Oct 00:55 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.92	3.00	3.92	10.9%
Bet365	1.91	3.00	3.90	11.3%
Betfair	1.91	3.00	3.80	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.90	3.00	3.80	12.3%
Best of all books	1.92	3.00	3.92	10.9%
Average	1.91	3.00	3.86	11.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MaroonsLugazi

Last 10#12Table position#70.75Points per game1.506Form pts · last 561.3Goals for · last 51.01.5Goals against · last 51.556Attack rating4450Defence rating5033Form rating67100H2H rating033Goals model6743Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 13:51 UTC

Maroons

3W 2D 5L · goals 11:15 · per match 1.1 for, 1.5 against

17 Sep	A	UPDF	0-1	L
8 Sep	H	Blacks Power	1-2	L
2 Sep	A	Ntugasaze	3-1	W
30 Aug	H	URA	1-2	L
23 May	A	Lugazi	1-0	W
19 May	H	Vipers	0-3	L
12 May	H	Entebbe UPPC	0-0	D
7 May	A	KCCA	0-3	L
28 Apr	A	URA	2-2	D
25 Apr	H	Police	3-1	W

Lugazi

3W 2D 5L · goals 7:10 · per match 0.7 for, 1.0 against

16 Sep	H	Police	0-2	L
9 Sep	A	Entebbe UPPC	1-0	W
1 Sep	A	NEC	1-3	L
29 Aug	H	Kigezi HomeBoyz	2-1	W
23 May	H	Maroons	0-1	L
19 May	A	Express	0-0	D
12 May	A	BUL	0-0	D
6 May	H	Mbarara City	0-1	L
29 Apr	A	Buhimba Saints	2-0	W
25 Apr	H	Kitara	1-2	L

Head to head

4Maroons wins

0draws

0Lugazi wins

4 meetings · goals 6:0 · last 4: 4W 0D 0L for Maroons

23 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Lugazi0-1Maroons
25 Nov 2025Premier League	Premier League	Maroons3-0Lugazi
28 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Lugazi0-1Maroons
6 Oct 2024Premier League	Premier League	Maroons1-0Lugazi

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 7 Oct 01:41 UTC

In the Premier League table, Maroons sit 12th with 3 points from 4 games, while Lugazi are 7th with 6 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	BUL	4	4	0	0	11:3	+8	12
2	NEC	4	3	1	0	9:2	+7	10
3	SC Villa	4	3	1	0	7:1	+6	10
4	Blacks Power	4	3	0	1	5:3	+2	9
5	Police	4	2	1	1	3:1	+2	7
6	Entebbe UPPC	4	2	1	1	3:2	+1	7
7	Lugazi	4	2	0	2	4:6	-2	6
8	UPDF	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
9	Express	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
10	KCCA	4	1	1	2	1:4	-3	4
11	Vipers	2	1	0	1	3:1	+2	3
12	Maroons	4	1	0	3	5:6	-1	3
13	URA	3	1	0	2	3:6	-3	3
14	Kitara	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
15	Mbarara City	3	0	2	1	0:1	-1	2
16	Kataka	3	0	1	2	1:5	-4	1
17	Kigezi HomeBoyz	3	0	1	2	1:5	-4	1
18	Ntugasaze	4	0	0	4	2:11	-9	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.82X31%2.85220%4.51

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.91 → 1.81 -5.2%X3.00 → 2.84 -5.3%23.86 → 4.50 +16.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Betfair	2.40	1.50	8.3%
1xBet	2.44	1.47	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.44	1.47	9.0%
Best of all books	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Average	2.44	1.48	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.00	1.73	7.8%
1xBet	2.11	1.62	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.11	1.60	9.9%
Best of all books	2.11	1.73	5.2%
Average	2.07	1.65	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Maroons 35%Draw 35%Lugazi 30%

The statistical model rated Maroons at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Lugazi at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.82 | 2.85 | 4.51, which imply roughly 54.9% for a Maroons win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Maroons are 12th (3 pts, 5-6 goals), Lugazi 7th (6 pts, 4-6).

Over their last five matches, Maroons averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Lugazi averaged 1 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Maroons or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.91	3.00	3.86

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.18	1.73	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.40	2.75

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.07	1.65

1st half

1	X	2
2.62	1.91	4.75

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.71	6.28	2.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	6.87
1.5	1.44	2.49
2.5	2.44	1.49
3.5	4.73	1.13
4.5	8.97	1.02

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.07	5.90
1	1.10	5.20
1.25	1.27	3.14
1.75	1.57	2.13
2	1.80	1.82
2.25	2.12	1.60
2.75	2.88	1.32
3	3.88	1.18
3.25	4.30	1.15
3.75	6.05	1.06
4	8.90	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.92	1.31
-0.75	2.21	1.53
-0.5	1.98	1.82
-0.25	1.64	2.04
0	1.37	2.74
+0.25	1.26	3.20

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.70	1.01
-2.25	8.20	1.02
-2	7.80	1.02
-1.75	5.00	1.10
-1.5	3.84	1.18
-1.25	3.34	1.24
+0.75	1.10	5.00
+1	1.01	8.50
+1.25	1.01	9.00
+1.5	1.01	8.80