Nairobi United vs 
Mara Sugar• FKF Premier League, Kenya
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 15 Oct 22:08 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 2.89 | 3.22 | 10.9% |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.20 | 11.4% |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 2.89 | 3.12 | 12.3% |
| Best of all books | 2.21 | 2.89 | 3.22 | 10.9% |
| Average | 2.20 | 2.89 | 3.18 | 11.5% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 15 Oct 20:01 UTC
Nairobi United
5W 3D 2L · goals 14:10 · per match 1.4 for, 1.0 against
| 11 Oct | H | KCB | 2-2 | D |
| 31 May | A | GOR Mahia | 1-0 | W |
| 24 May | H | Police | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May | H | Posta Rangers FC | 2-2 | D |
| 10 May | A | Kariobangi Sharks | 0-2 | L |
| 6 May | H | Tusker | 1-0 | W |
| 3 May | H | KCB | 0-1 | L |
| 25 Apr | A | Mathare United | 2-1 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | Murang'a SEAL | 4-2 | W |
| 12 Apr | A | Posta Rangers FC | 2-0 | W |
Mara Sugar
4W 3D 3L · goals 9:8 · per match 0.9 for, 0.8 against
| 11 Oct | A | 3K | 2-2 | D |
| 31 May | A | Murang'a SEAL | 1-2 | L |
| 27 May | H | GOR Mahia | 0-0 | D |
| 16 May | H | Mathare United | 0-1 | L |
| 13 May | H | Shabana | 1-0 | W |
| 9 May | A | AFC Leopards | 1-2 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | Tusker | 1-0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | Kariobangi Sharks | 1-0 | W |
| 6 Apr | H | Posta Rangers FC | 1-0 | W |
| 1 Apr | A | Nairobi United | 1-1 | D |
Head to head
6 meetings · goals 4:6 · last 6: 1W 3D 2L for Nairobi United
| 1 Apr 2026FKF Premier League | FKF Premier League | Nairobi United1-1Mara Sugar |
| 1 Oct 2025FKF Premier League | FKF Premier League | Mara Sugar0-1Nairobi United |
| 1 Jun 2025Shield Cup | Shield Cup | Nairobi United1-1Mara Sugar |
| 1 Jun 2025Shield Cup | Shield Cup | Nairobi United1-1Mara Sugar |
| 2 Jun 2024Super League | Super League | Mara Sugar1-0Nairobi United |
| 16 Dec 2023Super League | Super League | Nairobi United0-2Mara Sugar |
FKF Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 15 Oct 01:31 UTC
In the FKF Premier League table, Nairobi United sit 7th with 1 points from 1 games, while Mara Sugar are 6th with 1 points from 1.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Homeboyz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Shabana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Nairobi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | 3K | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Migori Youth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Bandari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Mombasa Elite | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Murang'a SEAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:4 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Ulinzi Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.9% margin.
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 7.6% |
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 1.41 | 10.6% |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 1.41 | 10.6% |
| Best of all books | 2.62 | 1.44 | 7.6% |
| Average | 2.55 | 1.42 | 9.6% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 1.62 | 9.1% |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 1.60 | 9.9% |
| Best of all books | 2.11 | 1.62 | 9.1% |
| Average | 2.11 | 1.61 | 9.5% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Nairobi United at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mara Sugar at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.17 | 2.82 | 3.11, which imply roughly 46.1% for a Nairobi United win versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the FKF Premier League table: Nairobi United are 7th (1 pts, 2-2 goals), Mara Sugar 6th (1 pts, 2-2).
Over their last five matches, Nairobi United averaged 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Mara Sugar averaged 2 scored and 2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Nairobi United or draw and +2.5 goals (goal line signal: over 2.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 2.89 | 3.18 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | 1.52 | 1.30 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.57 | 2.25 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.11 | 1.61 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.96 | 1.88 | 4.13 |
2nd half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.66 | 2.11 | 3.76 |
HT/FT
| HT / FT | FT 1 | FT X | FT 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1 | 3.75 | 17.0 | 41.0 |
| HT X | 5.00 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
| HT 2 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 5.50 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.89 | 5.73 | 2.39 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.07 | 5.95 |
| 1.5 | 1.51 | 2.33 |
| 2.5 | 2.55 | 1.42 |
| 3.5 | 4.95 | 1.11 |
8 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.75 | 1.09 | 5.35 |
| 1 | 1.12 | 4.70 |
| 1.25 | 1.32 | 2.94 |
| 1.75 | 1.65 | 2.03 |
| 2 | 1.90 | 1.73 |
| 2.25 | 2.21 | 1.53 |
| 2.75 | 3.05 | 1.29 |
| 3 | 4.15 | 1.16 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 3.70 | 1.20 |
| -0.75 | 2.62 | 1.38 |
| -0.25 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| 0 | 1.56 | 2.21 |
| +0.25 | 1.39 | 2.59 |
| +0.75 | 1.17 | 3.95 |
4 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4.65 | 1.12 |
| -1.25 | 4.20 | 1.15 |
| +1 | 1.06 | 6.25 |
| +1.5 | 1.03 | 7.30 |