Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance• NPFL, Nigeria

#81.0:1.22-1FT11/10 · Mobolaji Johnson Arena, Lagos2.2:1.8#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.76DAFX3.35DAF24.75B365Margin at best7.7%Books6Markets41Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 07:20 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.76	3.35	4.70	7.9%
Betano	1.75	3.25	4.65	9.4%
1xBet	1.71	3.20	4.74	10.8%
Betfair	1.70	3.30	4.60	10.9%
Bet365	1.70	3.20	4.75	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.69	3.20	4.60	12.2%
Best of all books	1.76	3.35	4.75	7.7%
Average	1.72	3.25	4.67	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sporting LagosBendel Insurance

Last 10#8Table position#71.50Points per game1.506Form pts · last 591.0Goals for · last 52.21.2Goals against · last 51.831Attack rating6960Defence rating4040Form rating6050H2H rating5047Goals model5345Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 11 Oct 14:11 UTC

Sporting Lagos

3W 3D 4L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

3 Oct	A	Kano Pillars	1-1	D
30 Sep	H	Ikorodu City	0-0	D
26 Sep	H	Barau FC	1-1	D
23 Sep	A	Enyimba	3-2	W
20 Sep	H	Abia Warriors	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	Inter Lagos	3-0	W
30 Aug	A	Doma United	0-2	L
23 Jun	A	Shooting Stars	0-1	L
16 Jun	H	Enyimba	2-1	W
12 Jun	H	Plateau United	1-2	L

Bendel Insurance

5W 2D 3L · goals 20:16 · per match 2.0 for, 1.6 against

4 Oct	H	Barau FC	4-1	W
27 Sep	A	Abia Warriors	0-3	L
23 Sep	H	Ikorodu City	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Ranchers Bees	1-2	L
13 Sep	H	Kun Khalifat FC	4-2	W
6 Sep	A	Nasarawa United	0-1	L
30 Aug	H	Warri Wolves	2-1	W
6 Jun	H	El Kanemi Warriors	3-3	D
1 Jun	H	Crown FC	3-1	W
24 May	H	Remo Stars	1-1	D

Head to head

1Sporting Lagos wins

0draws

1Bendel Insurance wins

2 meetings · goals 2:3 · last 2: 1W 0D 1L for Sporting Lagos

18 Feb 2024NPFL	NPFL	Sporting Lagos1-0Bendel Insurance
20 Jan 2024NPFL	NPFL	Bendel Insurance3-1Sporting Lagos

NPFL tablePremier Leagueupdated 16 Oct 13:10 UTC

In the NPFL table, Sporting Lagos sit 8th with 12 points from 8 games, while Bendel Insurance are 7th with 12 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	8	5	2	1	14:9	+5	17
2	Rivers United	8	4	4	0	13:2	+11	16
3	Plateau United	8	4	2	2	13:8	+5	14
4	Barau FC	8	3	4	1	12:9	+3	13
5	Doma United	8	4	1	3	10:10	0	13
6	Ikorodu City	8	3	3	2	10:7	+3	12
7	Bendel Insurance	8	4	0	4	14:13	+1	12
8	Sporting Lagos	8	3	3	2	10:9	+1	12
9	Katsina United	8	3	3	2	10:11	-1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	2	5	1	11:11	0	11
11	Nasarawa United	8	3	2	3	8:8	0	11
12	Kwara United	8	3	1	4	9:9	0	10
13	Warri Wolves	8	3	1	4	6:7	-1	10
14	Niger Tornadoes	8	2	3	3	6:7	-1	9
15	Abia Warriors	8	2	3	3	8:11	-3	9
16	Ranchers Bees	8	2	2	4	9:10	-1	8
17	Shooting Stars	8	2	2	4	7:11	-4	8
18	Kun Khalifat FC	8	2	2	4	7:14	-7	8
19	Enyimba	8	2	1	5	11:14	-3	7
20	Inter Lagos	8	1	2	5	5:13	-8	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.74X29%3.16220%4.57

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.70 → 1.72 +1.2%X3.20 → 3.25 +1.6%24.75 → 4.67 -1.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.30	1.60	6.0%
1xBet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Betano	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Best of all books	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Average	2.24	1.57	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.06	1.65	9.1%
Betano	2.05	1.65	9.4%
Marathonbet	2.06	1.63	9.9%
Best of all books	2.06	1.65	9.1%
Average	2.06	1.64	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sporting Lagos 10%Draw 45%Bendel Insurance 45%

The statistical model rated Sporting Lagos at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Bendel Insurance at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.74 | 3.16 | 4.57, which imply roughly 31.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the NPFL table: Sporting Lagos are 8th (12 pts, 10-9 goals), Bendel Insurance 7th (12 pts, 14-13).

Over their last five matches, Sporting Lagos averaged 1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Bendel Insurance averaged 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Bendel Insurance.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.72	3.25	4.67

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.14	1.95	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.29	3.35

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.06	1.64

1st half

1	X	2
2.38	1.98	5.24

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.56	7.10	2.98

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.08	6.85
1.5	1.39	2.64
2.5	2.24	1.57
3.5	4.00	1.18
4.5	7.75	1.07

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.07	5.85
1.25	1.22	3.48
1.75	1.49	2.34
2	1.67	2.01
2.25	1.93	1.72
2.75	2.59	1.39
3	3.34	1.24
3.25	3.74	1.19
4	7.50	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	3.08	1.28
-1.25	2.76	1.36
-1	2.39	1.48
-0.75	1.94	1.75
-0.5	1.72	2.00
-0.25	1.47	2.35

6 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.65	1.05
-2	5.80	1.07
-1.75	3.96	1.17
0	1.24	3.34
+0.25	1.18	3.90
+1.5	1.02	9.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.85	1.95
9.5	2.10	1.67