Ikorodu City vs Kwara United• NPFL, Nigeria

#100.6:0.81-0LiveToday · Mobolaji Johnson Arena, Lagos1.4:0.8#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.55B365X3.90DAF28.00DAFMargin at best2.7%Books7Markets45Rating54 · 46 levelExp. goals L51.8

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 11:47 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.43	3.90	8.00	8.1%
Betano	1.44	3.75	7.70	9.1%
Betfair	1.44	3.80	7.00	10.0%
1xBet	1.40	3.80	7.60	10.9%
Bet365	1.55	3.25	6.00	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.39	3.80	7.20	12.1%
William Hill	1.44	3.40	7.00	13.1%
Best of all books	1.55	3.90	8.00	2.7%
Average	1.44	3.67	7.21	10.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Ikorodu CityKwara United

Last 10#10Table position#91.29Points per game1.435Form pts · last 590.6Goals for · last 51.40.8Goals against · last 50.830Attack rating7050Defence rating5036Form rating6480H2H rating20100Goals model054Overall rating46

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 13:03 UTC

Ikorodu City

2W 5D 3L · goals 11:11 · per match 1.1 for, 1.1 against

4 Oct	A	Rivers United	0-2	L
30 Sep	A	Sporting Lagos	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Enugu Rangers	2-0	W
23 Sep	A	Bendel Insurance	1-2	L
19 Sep	H	Barau FC	0-0	D
13 Sep	A	Abia Warriors	2-2	D
30 Aug	H	Ranchers Bees	3-1	W
11 Jul	A	El Kanemi Warriors	0-1	L
17 Jun	A	Nasarawa United	1-1	D
11 Jun	H	Barau FC	2-2	D

Kwara United

4W 1D 5L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

4 Oct	H	Ranchers Bees	2-1	W
27 Sep	A	Kun Khalifat FC	0-1	L
23 Sep	H	Nasarawa United	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Warri Wolves	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	Katsina United	3-0	W
6 Sep	A	Plateau United	0-1	L
30 Aug	H	Kano Pillars	2-2	D
1 Jun	H	Sokoto	0-1	L
24 May	A	Bayelsa United	0-4	L
10 May	H	Enyimba	2-0	W

Head to head

2Ikorodu City wins

2draws

0Kwara United wins

4 meetings · goals 3:1 · last 4: 2W 2D 0L for Ikorodu City

18 Jan 2026NPFL	NPFL	Ikorodu City1-0Kwara United
24 Aug 2025NPFL	NPFL	Kwara United0-0Ikorodu City
9 Feb 2025NPFL	NPFL	Ikorodu City2-1Kwara United
22 Sep 2024NPFL	NPFL	Kwara United0-0Ikorodu City

NPFL tablePremier Leagueupdated 9 Oct 21:01 UTC

In the NPFL table, Ikorodu City sit 10th with 9 points from 7 games, while Kwara United are 9th with 10 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	7	5	1	1	12:7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	4	3	0	13:2	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	4	1	2	10:8	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	3	3	1	10:7	+3	12
5	Bendel Insurance	7	4	0	3	13:11	+2	12
6	Katsina United	8	3	3	2	10:11	-1	12
7	Kano Pillars	7	2	5	0	11:7	+4	11
8	Plateau United	7	3	2	2	9:8	+1	11
9	Kwara United	7	3	1	3	9:7	+2	10
10	Ikorodu City	7	2	3	2	8:7	+1	9
11	Sporting Lagos	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	7	2	2	3	6:7	-1	8
13	Shooting Stars	7	2	2	3	7:9	-2	8
14	Nasarawa United	7	2	2	3	6:8	-2	8
15	Abia Warriors	7	2	2	3	8:11	-3	8
16	Ranchers Bees	7	2	1	4	9:10	-1	7
17	Enyimba	8	2	1	5	11:14	-3	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	2	1	4	3:6	-3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	1	2	4	4:10	-6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	1	2	4	5:14	-9	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg163%1.44X25%3.67213%7.21

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.45 → 1.44 -0.7%X3.64 → 3.67 +0.8%27.25 → 7.21 -0.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Pinnacle	2.23	1.56	8.9%
Betano	2.25	1.55	9.0%
1xBet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Best of all books	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Average	2.25	1.56	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.41	1.48	9.1%
Betano	2.52	1.44	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.41	1.46	10.0%
William Hill	2.30	1.50	10.1%
Best of all books	2.52	1.50	6.3%
Average	2.41	1.47	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ikorodu City 45%Draw 45%Kwara United 10%

The statistical model rates Ikorodu City at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Kwara United at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.44 | 3.67 | 7.21, which imply roughly 69.4% for a Ikorodu City win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the NPFL table: Ikorodu City are 10th (9 pts, 8-7 goals), Kwara United 9th (10 pts, 9-7).

Over their last five matches, Ikorodu City averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Kwara United averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Ikorodu City or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.44	3.67	7.21

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.06	2.50	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.15	4.75

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.41	1.47

1st half

1	X	2
2.02	2.07	7.31

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.40	7.00	3.83

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.08	6.33
1.5	1.39	2.63
2.5	2.25	1.56
3.5	4.08	1.17
4.5	7.85	1.06
5.5	21.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.06	6.05
1.25	1.22	3.50
1.75	1.49	2.34
2	1.68	2.00
2.25	1.95	1.73
2.75	2.59	1.40
3	3.33	1.25
3.25	3.75	1.19
4	7.60	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.84	1.33
-1.5	2.34	1.48
-1.25	2.04	1.68
-1	1.79	1.92
-0.75	1.53	2.24
-0.5	1.41	2.58

6 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.70	1.01
-2.5	4.75	1.12
-2	3.90	1.18
-0.25	1.25	3.29
0	1.09	5.40
+0.25	1.06	6.05

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.74	2.01
9	2.02	1.78