Sarmiento Res. vs Vélez Sársfield Res.• Reserve League, Argentina

#311.2:1.20-1FTToday1.2:0.2#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.101XBX3.601XB21.75DAFMargin at best4.5%Books9Markets49Rating26 · 74Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Oct 16:02 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	4.66	3.42	1.71	9.2%
Dafabet	4.10	3.50	1.75	10.1%
Betano	4.85	3.40	1.65	10.6%
Betfair	4.40	3.30	1.73	10.8%
1xBet	5.10	3.60	1.57	11.1%
Bet365	4.20	3.30	1.73	11.9%
Marathonbet	4.60	3.34	1.65	12.3%
William Hill	4.33	3.25	1.70	12.7%
BetVictor	4.00	3.10	1.60	19.8%
Best of all books	5.10	3.60	1.75	4.5%
Average	4.47	3.36	1.68	11.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sarmiento Res.Vélez Sársfield Res.

Last 10#31Table position#10.89Points per game2.355Form pts · last 591.2Goals for · last 51.21.2Goals against · last 50.250Attack rating5014Defence rating8636Form rating640H2H rating10022Goals model7826Overall rating74

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Oct 16:31 UTC

Sarmiento Res.

3W 5D 2L · goals 10:7 · per match 1.0 for, 0.7 against

1 Oct	A	River Plate Res.	0-1	L
23 Sep	H	Atl. Rafaela 2	3-1	W
15 Sep	H	Racing Club Res.	0-1	L
9 Sep	A	Instituto Res.	2-2	D
1 Sep	A	Argentinos Juniors Res.	1-1	D
25 Aug	H	Aldosivi Res.	0-0	D
19 Aug	A	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	2-0	W
11 Aug	H	Unión Santa Fe Res.	0-0	D
4 Aug	A	Atlético Tucumán Res.	0-0	D
24 Jul	H	Godoy Cruz Res.	2-1	W

Vélez Sársfield Res.

4W 5D 1L · goals 11:3 · per match 1.1 for, 0.3 against

1 Oct	H	Argentinos Juniors Res.	1-1	D
22 Sep	H	Ferro 2	4-0	W
15 Sep	A	Aldosivi Res.	1-0	W
8 Sep	H	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	0-0	D
1 Sep	A	Unión Santa Fe Res.	0-0	D
25 Aug	H	Atlético Tucumán Res.	2-0	W
18 Aug	A	Godoy Cruz Res.	1-1	D
11 Aug	H	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	2-0	W
7 Aug	A	Barracas Central Res.	0-0	D
27 Jul	A	Banfield Res.	0-1	L

Head to head

0Sarmiento Res. wins

0draws

5Vélez Sársfield Res. wins

5 meetings · goals 1:12 · last 5: 0W 0D 5L for Sarmiento Res.

6 May 2026Reserve League	Reserve League	Vélez Sársfield Res.4-0Sarmiento Res.
8 Oct 2025Reserve League	Reserve League	Sarmiento Res.0-1Vélez Sársfield Res.
6 May 2025Reserve League	Reserve League	Vélez Sársfield Res.2-0Sarmiento Res.
16 Jul 2023Reserve League	Reserve League	Vélez Sársfield Res.3-1Sarmiento Res.
20 Aug 2022Reserve League	Reserve League	Sarmiento Res.0-2Vélez Sársfield Res.

Reserve League tableAperturaupdated 8 Oct 19:51 UTC

In the Reserve League table, Sarmiento Res. sit 31st with 16 points from 18 games, while Vélez Sársfield Res. are 1st with 47 points from 20.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	42:13	+29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	36:12	+24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	33:26	+7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	29:20	+9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	38:19	+19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	40:27	+13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	27:18	+9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	20:12	+8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	38:24	+14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	26:28	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	23:19	+4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	25:16	+9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	24:18	+6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	27:29	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	27:21	+6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	23:17	+6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	25:22	+3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	17:20	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	25:18	+7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	23:23	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	20:21	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	22:24	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	19:17	+2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	16:19	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	14:18	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	20:23	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	21:33	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	15:23	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	17:28	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	11:24	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	16:26	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	15:25	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	20:30	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	21:36	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	9:32	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	16:59	-43	8

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg118%4.93X26%3.48256%1.59

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.29 → 4.47 +4.2%X3.15 → 3.36 +6.7%21.77 → 1.68 -5.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.06	1.73	6.3%
1xBet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Betano	1.98	1.67	10.4%
BetVictor	1.79	1.56	20.0%
Best of all books	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Average	1.99	1.68	9.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.91	1.77	8.9%
William Hill	1.91	1.75	9.5%
Marathonbet	1.91	1.74	9.8%
BetVictor	1.75	1.60	19.6%
Best of all books	1.91	1.77	8.9%
Average	1.87	1.71	11.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sarmiento Res. 10%Draw 45%Vélez Sársfield Res. 45%

The statistical model rated Sarmiento Res. at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Vélez Sársfield Res. at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.93 | 3.48 | 1.59, which imply roughly 28.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Reserve League table: Sarmiento Res. are 31st (16 pts, 16-26 goals), Vélez Sársfield Res. 1st (47 pts, 42-13).

Over their last five matches, Sarmiento Res. averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Vélez Sársfield Res. averaged 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Vélez Sársfield Res. and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.47	3.36	1.68

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.95	1.15	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
3.18	1.25

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.87	1.72

1st half

1	X	2
4.96	2.03	2.29

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.85	8.05	1.57

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	6.20
1.5	1.30	2.88
2.5	1.99	1.68
3.5	3.25	1.21
4.5	6.05	1.04
5.5	17.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.80
1.25	1.21	3.80
1.75	1.38	2.54
2	1.53	2.18
2.25	1.74	1.87
2.75	2.23	1.49
3	2.86	1.34
3.25	3.14	1.27
3.75	4.20	1.15
4	6.10	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.39	1.45
+0.5	1.98	1.67
+0.75	1.77	1.86
+1	1.54	2.23
+1.25	1.40	2.53
+1.5	1.32	2.88

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.50	1.02
-1	6.15	1.06
-0.75	4.63	1.16
-0.5	3.53	1.21
-0.25	3.70	1.19
0	3.31	1.24
+1.75	1.23	3.57
+2	1.13	5.03
+2.25	1.15	5.50
+2.5	1.09	5.88

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8	1.33	2.93
8.5	1.52	2.31
9	1.69	2.00
9.5	1.92	1.82
10	2.31	1.52
10.5	2.64	1.40