Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina• Serie C - Girone A, Italy

#171.0:1.21-2FT03/100.6:1.0#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.15PINX3.401XB23.67PINMargin at best3.2%Books5Markets44Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Sep 02:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	2.31	3.42	3.07	5.1%
Betano	2.30	3.05	3.15	8.0%
Betfair	2.30	3.00	2.90	11.3%
Bet365	2.20	3.00	3.00	12.1%
Marathonbet	2.23	2.95	2.99	12.2%
Best of all books	2.31	3.42	3.15	4.3%
Average	2.27	3.08	3.02	9.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 3 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Folgore CarateseDesenzano Calvina

Last 10#17Table position#100.75Points per game1.255Form pts · last 581.0Goals for · last 50.61.2Goals against · last 51.063Attack rating3845Defence rating5550Form rating5015H2H rating8538Goals model6237Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:11 UTC

Folgore Caratese

1W 5D 4L · goals 10:13 · per match 1.0 for, 1.3 against

3 Oct	H	Desenzano Calvina	1-2	L
26 Sep	A	Lumezzane	2-1	W
20 Sep	H	Giana Erminio	1-1	D
17 Sep	A	Pergolettese	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Alcione	2-3	L
7 Sep	A	PRO Vercelli	0-1	L
31 Aug	A	Novara	2-2	D
24 Aug	H	Dolomiti Bellunesi	1-2	L
16 Aug	A	Giana Erminio	1-1	D
31 Jul	A	Sassuolo	0-0	D

Desenzano Calvina

3W 5D 2L · goals 7:7 · per match 0.7 for, 0.7 against

3 Oct	A	Folgore Caratese	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Juventus U23	0-0	D
21 Sep	A	Treviso	0-0	D
17 Sep	H	Lecco	1-3	L
13 Sep	A	Arzignano Valchiampo	2-1	W
6 Sep	A	Union Brescia	0-1	L
3 Sep	A	Trento	1-0	W
31 Aug	H	Trento	0-0	D
23 Aug	A	PRO Vercelli	1-1	D
16 Aug	A	Lecco	0-0	D

Head to head

2Folgore Caratese wins

3draws

3Desenzano Calvina wins

8 meetings · goals 7:9 · last 8: 2W 3D 3L for Folgore Caratese

9 Mar 2025Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Folgore Caratese0-1Desenzano Calvina
3 Nov 2024Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Desenzano Calvina3-0Folgore Caratese
7 Apr 2024Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Folgore Caratese0-2Desenzano Calvina
26 Nov 2023Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Desenzano Calvina0-0Folgore Caratese
5 Mar 2023Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Desenzano Calvina1-1Folgore Caratese
30 Oct 2022Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Folgore Caratese3-0Desenzano Calvina
1 May 2022Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Desenzano Calvina1-1Folgore Caratese
19 Jan 2022Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Folgore Caratese2-1Desenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A tableSerie C: Girone Aupdated 9 Oct 22:40 UTC

In the Serie C - Girone A table, Folgore Caratese sit 17th with 6 points from 8 games, while Desenzano Calvina are 10th with 10 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	8	7	0	1	14:4	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	5	4	0	16:6	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14:6	+8	15
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	4	2	2	12:9	+3	14
5	Trento	8	3	5	0	11:5	+6	14
6	Treviso	8	3	4	1	8:6	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	3	3	2	12:10	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	2	4	2	7:7	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	2	4	2	6:7	-1	10
11	Novara	8	2	3	3	8:10	-2	9
12	PRO Vercelli	9	2	3	4	8:13	-5	9
13	Lecco	8	2	3	3	6:8	-2	9
14	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	7:9	-2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	1	5	2	3:5	-2	8
16	Athletic Carpi	8	1	3	4	10:17	-7	6
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6
18	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	7:13	-6	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	0	4	4	6:10	-4	4
20	Renate	8	0	3	5	6:12	-6	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg143%2.13X30%3.06227%3.38

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.27 → 2.11 -7.0%X3.08 → 3.05 -1.0%23.02 → 3.41 +12.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	2.21	1.66	5.5%
Bet365	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Betano	2.22	1.62	6.8%
Marathonbet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Best of all books	2.30	1.66	3.7%
Average	2.23	1.61	6.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betano	1.90	1.80	8.2%
1xBet	1.87	1.80	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.87	1.77	10.0%
Best of all books	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Average	1.91	1.77	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Folgore Caratese 10%Draw 45%Desenzano Calvina 45%

The statistical model rated Folgore Caratese at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Desenzano Calvina at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.13 | 3.06 | 3.38, which imply roughly 32.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie C - Girone A table: Folgore Caratese are 17th (6 pts, 9-12 goals), Desenzano Calvina 10th (10 pts, 6-7).

Over their last five matches, Folgore Caratese averaged 1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Desenzano Calvina averaged 0.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Desenzano Calvina.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.27	3.08	3.02

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.31	1.54	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.62	2.19

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.91	1.78

1st half

1	X	2
3.00	1.99	3.79

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.85	7.35	2.25

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.33
1.5	1.40	2.73
2.5	2.23	1.62
3.5	4.02	1.20
4.5	7.89	1.04
5.5	11.3	1.02
6.5	21.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.05	6.55
1	1.07	6.08
1.25	1.23	3.66
1.75	1.48	2.39
2	1.62	2.10
2.25	1.94	1.78
2.75	2.54	1.43
3	3.09	1.28
3.25	3.65	1.22
3.75	5.05	1.10
4	6.88	1.04
4.25	7.80	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.67	1.41
-0.5	2.25	1.61
-0.25	1.93	1.77
0	1.61	2.17
+0.25	1.43	2.58
+0.5	1.35	3.10

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.70	1.01
-2	9.05	1.03
-1.75	6.12	1.08
-1.5	4.60	1.14
-1.25	4.15	1.18
-1	3.65	1.22
+0.75	1.21	3.82
+1	1.09	5.80
+1.25	1.08	6.30
+1.5	1.06	6.83