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Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu• J2 League, Japan

#31.6:2.02-1FTToday · Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata0.8:1.4#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.40DAFX3.43PIN22.20B365Margin at best4.0%Books10Markets79Rating58 · 42Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle3.373.432.174.9%
Dafabet3.403.302.195.4%
Bet3653.303.202.207.0%
BetVictor3.303.202.207.0%
Betano3.303.202.158.1%
1xBet3.233.122.1010.6%
Betfair3.103.252.1010.6%
Marathonbet3.163.162.0611.8%
William Hill3.203.002.1012.2%
SBO2.992.892.1215.2%
Best of all books3.403.432.204.0%
Average3.243.172.149.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Albirex NiigataSagan Tosu
Last 10#3Table position#121.82Points per game1.275Form pts · last 5121.6Goals for · last 50.82.0Goals against · last 51.467Attack rating3341Defence rating5957Form rating4350H2H rating5086Goals model1458Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 06:10 UTC

Albirex Niigata

5W 2D 3L · goals 14:19 · per match 1.4 for, 1.9 against

17 OctAOita Trinita1-5L
11 OctAShonan Bellmare1-1D
3 OctHTokushima Vortis2-1W
29 SepAMatsumoto Yamaga0-1L
26 SepABlaublitz Akita2-2D
19 SepHJubilo Iwata2-1W
13 SepHMontedio Yamagata1-0W
6 SepAYokohama FC0-5L
2 SepAThespakusatsu Gunma2-1W
29 AugAIwaki3-2W

Sagan Tosu

5W 0D 5L · goals 10:11 · per match 1.0 for, 1.1 against

17 OctHOmiya Ardija2-1W
14 OctHAvispa Fukuoka2-1W
10 OctHFujieda MYFC1-0W
4 OctABlaublitz Akita0-1L
29 SepHTokyo Verdy2-1W
26 SepAMontedio Yamagata0-2L
23 SepAVissel Kobe0-1L
19 SepHIwaki1-3L
12 SepAImabari0-1L
5 SepHTegevajaro Miyazaki2-0W

Head to head

10Albirex Niigata wins
2draws
8Sagan Tosu wins

20 meetings · goals 23:23 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Albirex Niigata

6 Jul 2024J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueAlbirex Niigata3-4Sagan Tosu
24 Feb 2024J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSagan Tosu1-2Albirex Niigata
21 Oct 2023J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueAlbirex Niigata1-1Sagan Tosu
20 May 2023J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSagan Tosu2-0Albirex Niigata
29 Oct 2017J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueAlbirex Niigata1-0Sagan Tosu
8 Apr 2017J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSagan Tosu3-0Albirex Niigata
15 Mar 2017J-League CupJ-League CupSagan Tosu2-2Albirex Niigata
27 Aug 2016J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSagan Tosu1-0Albirex Niigata
25 Jun 2016J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueAlbirex Niigata1-0Sagan Tosu
27 Mar 2016J-League CupJ-League CupAlbirex Niigata1-0Sagan Tosu

J2 League tableJ2 Leagueupdated 21 Oct 12:01 UTC

In the J2 League table, Albirex Niigata sit 3rd with 20 points from 11 games, while Sagan Tosu are 12th with 14 points from 11.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai1173118:8+1024
2Omiya Ardija1155121:11+1020
3Albirex Niigata1162315:19-420
4Kataller Toyama1154220:11+919
5Yokohama FC1153320:14+618
6Shonan Bellmare1146112:10+218
7Oita Trinita1145216:9+717
8Iwaki1150618:17+115
9Fujieda MYFC1135313:11+214
10Tegevajaro Miyazaki1135315:15014
11Jubilo Iwata1142513:14-114
12Sagan Tosu1142511:13-214
13Tokushima Vortis1142510:12-214
14Consadole Sapporo1242615:19-414
15Blaublitz Akita1134412:12013
16Montedio Yamagata1241711:11013
17Tochigi City1132617:18-111
18Imabari1132614:22-811
19Vanraure Hachinohe113269:20-1111
20Ventforet Kofu113179:23-1410

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg128%3.24X29%3.18243%2.14

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

18 Oct 06:0021 Oct 06:101 3.24X 3.182 2.14
13.38 → 3.24 -4.1%X3.19 → 3.18 -0.3%22.04 → 2.14 +4.9%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.061.784.7%
Bet3652.151.676.4%
Betano2.151.657.1%
Betfair2.101.658.2%
BetVictor2.091.648.8%
1xBet2.101.639.0%
Marathonbet1.991.709.1%
Best of all books2.151.782.7%
Average2.091.677.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.831.917.0%
William Hill1.851.858.1%
BetVictor1.871.838.1%
Betano1.881.828.1%
1xBet1.851.848.4%
Bet3651.831.839.3%
Marathonbet1.801.869.3%
Best of all books1.881.915.5%
Average1.841.858.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Albirex Niigata 45%Draw 45%Sagan Tosu 10%

The statistical model rated Albirex Niigata at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Sagan Tosu at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.24 | 3.18 | 2.14, which imply roughly 30.9% for a Albirex Niigata win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the J2 League table: Albirex Niigata are 3rd (20 pts, 15-19 goals), Sagan Tosu 12th (14 pts, 11-13).

Over their last five matches, Albirex Niigata averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Sagan Tosu averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Albirex Niigata or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.243.182.14

Double chance

1XX212
1.641.281.30

Draw no bet

12
2.361.53

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.841.85

1st half

1X2
3.962.042.77

2nd half

1X2
3.612.322.48

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 15.5114.226.2
HT X7.194.715.04
HT 234.014.03.41

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.338.201.79

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.058.03
1.51.342.99
2.52.091.67
3.53.761.23
4.57.681.06
5.516.11.02
6.541.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.047.05
11.066.45
1.251.193.82
1.751.422.62
21.572.26
2.251.831.89
2.752.371.52
32.911.32
3.253.211.26
3.754.471.14
46.181.06
4.256.501.05

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.252.781.39
02.351.53
+0.251.901.83
+0.51.682.13
+0.751.472.48
+11.293.27
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.758.781.01
-1.57.071.05
-1.256.621.07
-16.171.08
-0.754.111.19
-0.53.321.33
+1.251.243.68
+1.51.184.18
+1.751.115.35
+21.027.60
+2.251.027.68
+2.51.028.73

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.055.93
7.51.203.67
8.51.432.57
9.51.741.98
10.52.191.59
11.52.881.33
12.54.031.16
13.56.031.04
23 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.027.06
6.251.075.32
6.751.065.68
71.075.42
7.251.134.32
7.751.223.48
81.253.29
8.251.342.85
8.751.482.42
91.562.28
9.251.652.10
9.751.841.86
101.981.78
10.252.071.67
10.752.351.51
112.591.41
11.252.731.37
11.753.201.26
123.681.19
12.253.861.18
12.754.651.11
135.621.06
13.255.821.05

Latest J2 League results

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21 OctVegalta Sendai 3-1 Imabari
21 OctTegevajaro Miyazaki 2-1 Blaublitz Akita
21 OctTokushima Vortis 0-1 Vanraure Hachinohe
21 OctVentforet Kofu 0-3 Yokohama FC
21 OctShonan Bellmare 1-1 Iwaki