Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia• 1. Division, Cyprus

#41.4:0.615:0019/10 · Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos2.4:1.6#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.93BTNX3.45BTN23.88PINMargin at best6.6%Books5Markets52Rating65 · 35Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 19:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.93	3.38	3.80	7.7%
1xBet	1.89	3.42	3.86	8.1%
Bet365	1.90	3.40	3.80	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.87	3.42	3.85	8.7%
William Hill	1.91	3.10	3.75	11.3%
Best of all books	1.93	3.42	3.86	7.0%
Average	1.90	3.34	3.81	8.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PafosApoel Nicosia

Last 10#4Table position#72.00Points per game1.407Form pts · last 571.4Goals for · last 52.40.6Goals against · last 51.637Attack rating6373Defence rating2759Form rating4185H2H rating150Goals model10065Overall rating35

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:50 UTC

Pafos

5W 3D 2L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

15 Oct	A	Atalanta	1-3	L
11 Oct	A	Anorthosis	3-1	W
18 Sep	H	AEL	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	AEK Larnaca	1-0	W
7 Sep	H	Olympiakos	0-0	D
3 Sep	A	Omonia Nicosia	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Karmiotissa	3-0	W
27 Aug	H	Dinamo Tirana	4-2	W
20 Aug	A	Dinamo Tirana	1-1	D
13 Aug	H	Red Bull Salzburg	3-3	D

Apoel Nicosia

3W 2D 5L · goals 18:18 · per match 1.8 for, 1.8 against

10 Oct	H	Nea Salamis	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Apollon Limassol	2-2	D
12 Sep	A	Anorthosis	1-2	L
6 Sep	H	AEL	6-0	W
29 Aug	A	AEK Larnaca	1-3	L
16 Aug	A	Anorthosis	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Kifisia	2-2	D
31 Jul	A	Fortuna Sittard	1-2	L
22 May	A	Pafos	0-2	L
16 May	H	Omonia Nicosia	0-3	L

Head to head

11Pafos wins

9draws

10Apoel Nicosia wins

30 meetings · goals 35:29 · last 10: 5W 3D 2L for Pafos

22 May 20261. Division	1. Division	Pafos2-0Apoel Nicosia
26 Apr 20261. Division	1. Division	Apoel Nicosia3-3Pafos
4 Feb 20261. Division	1. Division	Pafos2-0Apoel Nicosia
31 Aug 20251. Division	1. Division	Apoel Nicosia0-1Pafos
12 May 20251. Division	1. Division	Apoel Nicosia1-1Pafos
6 Apr 20251. Division	1. Division	Pafos0-1Apoel Nicosia
24 Feb 20251. Division	1. Division	Apoel Nicosia0-2Pafos
30 Jan 2025Cup	Cup	Apoel Nicosia1-1Pafos
23 Nov 20241. Division	1. Division	Pafos2-1Apoel Nicosia
25 Sep 2024Super Cup	Super Cup	Apoel Nicosia1-0Pafos

1. Division table1-divisionupdated 17 Oct 19:10 UTC

In the 1. Division table, Pafos sit 4th with 10 points from 5 games, while Apoel Nicosia are 7th with 7 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	5	4	0	1	10:4	+6	12
2	AEL	5	4	0	1	8:8	0	12
3	Omonia Nicosia	5	3	2	0	11:2	+9	11
4	Pafos	5	3	1	1	7:3	+4	10
5	Apollon Limassol	5	2	3	0	10:6	+4	9
6	Aris	5	2	2	1	6:7	-1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	2	1	2	12:8	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	1	3	1	4:4	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	1	2	2	10:9	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	0	4	1	8:9	-1	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	1	1	3	9:11	-2	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	1	0	5	5:14	-9	3
13	Anorthosis	5	1	0	4	4:12	-8	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	0	3	3	4:11	-7	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.89X27%3.37224%3.82

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.90 → 1.89 -0.5%X3.43 → 3.37 -1.7%23.75 → 3.82 +1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.90	1.90	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.92	1.88	5.3%
1xBet	1.89	1.84	7.3%
Marathonbet	1.89	1.84	7.3%
Best of all books	1.92	1.90	4.7%
Average	1.90	1.86	6.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.76	1.96	7.8%
Bet365	1.80	1.91	7.9%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
Marathonbet	1.76	1.93	8.6%
Best of all books	1.80	1.96	6.6%
Average	1.77	1.94	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Pafos 45%Draw 45%Apoel Nicosia 10%

The statistical model rates Pafos at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Apoel Nicosia at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.89 | 3.37 | 3.82, which imply roughly 52.9% for a Pafos win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Division table: Pafos are 4th (10 pts, 7-3 goals), Apoel Nicosia 7th (7 pts, 12-8).

Over their last five matches, Pafos averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Apoel Nicosia averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Pafos or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.90	3.34	3.81

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.23	1.83	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.40	2.75

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.77	1.94

1st half

1	X	2
2.45	2.17	4.29

2nd half

1	X	2
2.24	2.46	3.93

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.89	14.8	36.7
HT X	4.83	5.23	8.47
HT 2	25.3	15.1	6.40

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.66	9.25	2.50

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	8.50
1.5	1.27	3.30
2.5	1.90	1.87
3.5	3.14	1.30
4.5	5.67	1.09
5.5	9.50	1.02
6.5	15.0	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.98
1	1.03	7.40
1.25	1.14	4.35
1.75	1.33	2.95
2	1.42	2.59
2.25	1.67	2.10
2.75	2.11	1.63
3	2.50	1.44
3.25	2.82	1.35
3.75	3.78	1.19
4	5.10	1.10
4.25	5.40	1.09
5	8.10	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.00	1.35
-1	2.64	1.45
-0.75	2.13	1.65
-0.5	1.92	1.89
-0.25	1.62	2.16
0	1.38	2.78

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	7.50	1.03
-2.5	6.67	1.07
-2.25	6.27	1.08
-2	5.83	1.09
-1.75	4.08	1.18
-1.5	3.28	1.27
+0.25	1.30	3.21
+0.5	1.25	3.80
+0.75	1.14	4.76
+1	1.04	7.10
+1.25	1.03	7.57
+1.5	1.02	8.00