Aris vs AEK Larnaca• 1. Division, Cyprus

#61.2:1.416:00Tomorrow · Alphamega Stadium, Limassol2.0:0.8#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.80B365X3.36PIN22.45B365Margin at best6.3%Books6Markets63Rating36 · 65Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 19:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	2.80	3.20	2.45	7.8%
Pinnacle	2.70	3.36	2.44	7.8%
BetVictor	2.63	3.50	2.38	8.6%
1xBet	2.75	3.30	2.38	8.7%
Marathonbet	2.75	3.30	2.38	8.7%
William Hill	2.70	3.10	2.40	11.0%
Best of all books	2.80	3.50	2.45	5.1%
Average	2.72	3.29	2.41	8.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ArisAEK Larnaca

Last 10#6Table position#11.60Points per game2.4010Form pts · last 5121.2Goals for · last 52.01.4Goals against · last 50.838Attack rating6336Defence rating6440Form rating6040H2H rating6015Goals model8536Overall rating65

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:32 UTC

Aris

4W 2D 4L · goals 17:15 · per match 1.7 for, 1.5 against

14 Oct	H	Ethnikos Achna	4-0	W
11 Oct	A	Olympiakos	2-1	W
3 Oct	H	Riga	1-2	L
26 Sep	H	Omonia 29is Maiou	4-2	W
20 Sep	H	Karmiotissa	0-0	D
14 Sep	A	Krasava Ypsonas	1-0	W
7 Sep	H	Omonia Nicosia	1-4	L
29 Aug	H	Apollon Limassol	2-2	D
9 Aug	A	Union Berlin	2-3	L
30 Jul	A	Atromitos	0-1	L

AEK Larnaca

7W 0D 3L · goals 18:9 · per match 1.8 for, 0.9 against

12 Oct	H	Omonia Aradippou	1-0	W
3 Oct	H	Apollon Limassol	3-0	W
27 Sep	H	Nea Salamis	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Omonia 29is Maiou	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Pafos	0-1	L
6 Sep	A	Nea Salamis	4-1	W
29 Aug	H	Apoel Nicosia	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Omonia Aradippou	0-1	L
30 Jul	A	Beitar Jerusalem	3-2	W
23 Jul	H	Beitar Jerusalem	0-1	L

Head to head

6Aris wins

6draws

9AEK Larnaca wins

21 meetings · goals 27:27 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Aris

22 May 20261. Division	1. Division	Aris3-4AEK Larnaca
25 Apr 20261. Division	1. Division	AEK Larnaca2-0Aris
10 Jan 20261. Division	1. Division	Aris1-0AEK Larnaca
22 Sep 20251. Division	1. Division	AEK Larnaca3-2Aris
27 Apr 20251. Division	1. Division	Aris1-0AEK Larnaca
29 Mar 20251. Division	1. Division	AEK Larnaca1-1Aris
9 Feb 20251. Division	1. Division	Aris1-1AEK Larnaca
3 Nov 20241. Division	1. Division	AEK Larnaca2-0Aris
14 Apr 20241. Division	1. Division	Aris0-1AEK Larnaca
4 Mar 20241. Division	1. Division	AEK Larnaca1-1Aris

1. Division table1-divisionupdated 17 Oct 19:10 UTC

In the 1. Division table, Aris sit 6th with 8 points from 5 games, while AEK Larnaca are 1st with 12 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	5	4	0	1	10:4	+6	12
2	AEL	5	4	0	1	8:8	0	12
3	Omonia Nicosia	5	3	2	0	11:2	+9	11
4	Pafos	5	3	1	1	7:3	+4	10
5	Apollon Limassol	5	2	3	0	10:6	+4	9
6	Aris	5	2	2	1	6:7	-1	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	2	1	2	12:8	+4	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	5	1	3	1	4:4	0	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	1	2	2	10:9	+1	5
10	Olympiakos	5	0	4	1	8:9	-1	4
11	Nea Salamis	5	1	1	3	9:11	-2	4
12	Krasava Ypsonas	6	1	0	5	5:14	-9	3
13	Anorthosis	5	1	0	4	4:12	-8	3
14	Karmiotissa	6	0	3	3	4:11	-7	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg134%2.74X28%3.25238%2.41

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.96 → 2.74 -7.4%X3.43 → 3.25 -5.2%22.20 → 2.41 +9.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.70	2.11	6.2%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.72	2.03	7.4%
Marathonbet	1.72	2.03	7.4%
BetVictor	1.67	2.04	8.9%
Best of all books	1.72	2.11	5.5%
Average	1.70	2.06	7.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.57	2.26	7.9%
William Hill	1.60	2.20	8.0%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.57	2.22	8.7%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
Best of all books	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Average	1.57	2.25	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Aris 10%Draw 45%AEK Larnaca 45%

The statistical model rates Aris at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and AEK Larnaca at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.74 | 3.25 | 2.41, which imply roughly 30.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Division table: Aris are 6th (8 pts, 6-7 goals), AEK Larnaca 1st (12 pts, 10-4).

Over their last five matches, Aris averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; AEK Larnaca averaged 2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : AEK Larnaca.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.72	3.29	2.40

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.51	1.40	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.97	1.75

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.57	2.25

1st half

1	X	2
3.22	2.22	2.92

2nd half

1	X	2
2.91	2.53	2.69

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.41	13.7	27.3
HT X	6.53	5.23	5.90
HT 2	28.0	14.2	3.75

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.01	12.4	1.89

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	12.0
1.5	1.19	4.03
2.5	1.70	2.06
3.5	2.67	1.40
4.5	4.89	1.13
5.5	9.05	1.05
6.5	12.0	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.70
1	–	9.10
1.25	1.09	5.25
1.75	1.23	3.42
2	1.30	3.08
2.25	1.50	2.40
2.75	1.86	1.85
3	2.13	1.62
3.25	2.38	1.49
3.75	3.14	1.27
4	4.20	1.16
4.25	4.55	1.13
4.75	6.10	1.06
5	8.50	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.66	1.43
-0.25	2.32	1.55
0	1.99	1.76
+0.25	1.68	2.05
+0.5	1.53	2.38
+0.75	1.38	2.78

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	9.70	1.01
-1.75	7.00	1.06
-1.5	5.40	1.11
-1.25	4.96	1.13
-1	4.47	1.15
-0.75	3.23	1.29
+1	1.22	3.65
+1.25	1.18	4.08
+1.5	1.16	4.47
+1.75	1.09	5.80
+2	1.01	8.50

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	6.70
6.5	1.17	3.92
7.5	1.40	2.64
8.5	1.73	2.00
9.5	2.19	1.59
10.5	2.92	1.32
11.5	4.20	1.14
12.5	6.47	1.03

7 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.04	6.12
7	1.22	3.50
8	1.51	2.34
9	1.95	1.76
10	2.62	1.40
11	3.82	1.18
12	6.02	1.04