Sumqayıt vs Araz• Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan

#81.4:1.22-1FTToday · Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, Sumqayit1.0:2.0#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20WHX3.30BVC23.10B365Margin at best8.0%Books6Markets64Rating62 · 39Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 10:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	2.20	3.30	3.00	9.1%
Pinnacle	2.18	3.27	3.05	9.2%
1xBet	2.16	3.18	3.02	10.9%
Bet365	2.20	3.00	3.10	11.0%
William Hill	2.20	3.00	3.00	12.1%
Marathonbet	2.14	3.18	2.94	12.2%
Best of all books	2.20	3.30	3.10	8.0%
Average	2.18	3.15	3.02	10.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SumqayıtAraz

Last 10#8Table position#120.83Points per game0.295Form pts · last 511.4Goals for · last 51.01.2Goals against · last 52.058Attack rating4263Defence rating3883Form rating1750H2H rating5071Goals model2962Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 11:01 UTC

Sumqayıt

2W 2D 6L · goals 15:18 · per match 1.5 for, 1.8 against

10 Oct	H	Qabala	4-1	W
20 Sep	A	Kapaz	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Şamaxı FK	1-1	D
6 Sep	A	Turan	1-2	L
31 Aug	H	Qarabag	0-1	L
16 Aug	H	Neftchi Baku	1-3	L
22 May	H	Qarabag	3-4	L
17 May	A	Zira	1-2	L
9 May	H	Araz	2-1	W
2 May	A	Kapaz	1-2	L

Araz

2W 2D 6L · goals 11:19 · per match 1.1 for, 1.9 against

9 Oct	H	Kapaz	0-2	L
20 Sep	A	Şamaxı FK	1-2	L
13 Sep	H	Turan	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Qarabag	2-3	L
31 Aug	H	Sabah FA	0-1	L
23 Aug	A	Neftchi Baku	0-5	L
15 Aug	H	Imisli FK	0-0	D
23 May	H	Zira	3-2	W
15 May	H	Kapaz	2-0	W
9 May	A	Sumqayıt	1-2	L

Head to head

4Sumqayıt wins

3draws

4Araz wins

11 meetings · goals 10:10 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Sumqayıt

9 May 2026Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt2-1Araz
15 Feb 2026Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Araz1-0Sumqayıt
2 Nov 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt3-2Araz
7 Apr 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Araz2-0Sumqayıt
1 Feb 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt0-0Araz
10 Nov 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Araz1-0Sumqayıt
30 Aug 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt0-1Araz
31 Mar 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt1-0Araz
28 Jan 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Araz1-1Sumqayıt
4 Nov 2023Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Sumqayıt2-0Araz

Premyer Liqa tablePremyer Liqasiupdated 16 Oct 17:20 UTC

In the Premyer Liqa table, Sumqayıt sit 8th with 5 points from 6 games, while Araz are 12th with 2 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	18:5	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	14:1	+13	16
3	Qarabag	6	5	1	0	11:4	+7	16
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	7:4	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	3	4	1	12:9	+3	13
6	Zira	7	3	2	2	8:9	-1	11
7	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6:7	-1	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	1	2	3	8:9	-1	5
9	Qabala	7	1	1	5	3:11	-8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	6:13	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	1	0	7	4:15	-11	3
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	5:15	-10	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg140%2.24X29%3.07230%3.00

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.26 → 2.18 -3.5%X3.25 → 3.16 -2.8%22.84 → 3.02 +6.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.90	1.90	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.86	1.93	5.6%
1xBet	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.87	9.0%
BetVictor	1.77	1.80	12.1%
Best of all books	1.90	1.93	4.4%
Average	1.83	1.87	8.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.67	2.10	7.5%
William Hill	1.62	2.15	8.2%
1xBet	1.64	2.08	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.64	2.04	10.0%
BetVictor	1.62	2.00	11.7%
Best of all books	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Average	1.64	2.07	9.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sumqayıt 45%Draw 45%Araz 10%

The statistical model rated Sumqayıt at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Araz at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.24 | 3.07 | 3.00, which imply roughly 44.6% for a Sumqayıt win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premyer Liqa table: Sumqayıt are 8th (5 pts, 8-9 goals), Araz 12th (2 pts, 5-15).

Over their last five matches, Sumqayıt averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Araz averaged 1 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Sumqayıt or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.18	3.16	3.02

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.30	1.56	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.58	2.17

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.64	2.07

1st half

1	X	2
2.76	2.13	3.61

2nd half

1	X	2
2.49	2.45	3.27

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.45	13.7	33.3
HT X	5.37	4.93	6.93
HT 2	26.7	14.5	4.88

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.79	11.1	2.12

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	9.68
1.5	1.24	3.55
2.5	1.83	1.87
3.5	3.09	1.31
4.5	5.78	1.09
5.5	11.0	1.04
6.5	15.0	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.80
1	1.02	8.30
1.25	1.12	4.70
1.75	1.29	3.12
2	1.38	2.66
2.25	1.60	2.14
2.75	2.01	1.67
3	2.37	1.47
3.25	2.71	1.38
3.75	3.58	1.21
4	4.85	1.11
4.25	5.20	1.10

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.51	1.44
-0.5	2.16	1.61
-0.25	1.87	1.81
0	1.58	2.20
+0.25	1.43	2.55
+0.5	1.35	3.05

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.70	1.01
-2.25	6.95	1.04
-2	7.90	1.02
-1.75	5.37	1.11
-1.5	4.15	1.18
-1.25	3.75	1.22
-1	3.33	1.27
+0.75	1.22	3.69
+1	1.11	5.45
+1.25	1.09	5.83
+1.5	1.08	6.37
+1.75	1.02	8.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.03	6.32
6.5	1.19	3.74
7.5	1.43	2.54
8.5	1.79	1.92
9.5	2.26	1.55
10.5	3.06	1.29
11.5	4.43	1.12
12.5	6.92	1.02

7 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.06	5.75
7	1.24	3.32
8	1.56	2.25
9	2.01	1.71
10	2.74	1.36
11	4.06	1.16
12	6.47	1.03