Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku• Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan

#31.6:0.63-3FTToday · Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku2.0:0.8#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.95WHX3.50BVC23.90B365Margin at best5.5%Books6Markets67Rating60 · 40Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 11:16 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.95	3.47	3.43	9.3%
BetVictor	1.91	3.50	3.50	9.5%
Bet365	1.80	3.40	3.90	10.6%
William Hill	1.95	3.25	3.50	10.6%
1xBet	1.87	3.34	3.64	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.85	3.34	3.54	12.2%
Best of all books	1.95	3.50	3.90	5.5%
Average	1.89	3.38	3.58	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

QarabagNeftchi Baku

Last 10#3Table position#22.43Points per game2.1313Form pts · last 5101.6Goals for · last 52.00.6Goals against · last 50.844Attack rating5657Defence rating4357Form rating4380H2H rating2043Goals model5760Overall rating40

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:20 UTC

Qarabag

7W 1D 2L · goals 15:9 · per match 1.5 for, 0.9 against

11 Oct	A	Imisli FK	2-0	W
18 Sep	H	Safa Baku	1-0	W
13 Sep	A	Zira	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Araz	3-2	W
31 Aug	A	Sumqayıt	1-0	W
27 Aug	H	Twente	1-4	L
20 Aug	A	Twente	1-0	W
17 Aug	H	Şamaxı FK	3-1	W
13 Aug	H	Dynamo Kyiv	2-0	W
6 Aug	A	Dynamo Kyiv	0-1	L

Neftchi Baku

6W 1D 3L · goals 21:10 · per match 2.1 for, 1.0 against

9 Oct	H	Sabah FA	0-0	D
18 Sep	A	Qabala	3-0	W
11 Sep	A	Imisli FK	3-2	W
5 Sep	H	Safa Baku	4-1	W
30 Aug	A	Zira	0-1	L
23 Aug	H	Araz	5-0	W
16 Aug	A	Sumqayıt	3-1	W
30 Jul	A	Dinamo Minsk	1-0	W
22 Jul	H	Dinamo Minsk	2-4	L
13 Jul	H	NK Osijek	0-1	L

Head to head

40Qarabag wins

13draws

11Neftchi Baku wins

64 meetings · goals 127:48 · last 10: 9W 0D 1L for Qarabag

30 Apr 2026Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Neftchi Baku2-1Qarabag
26 Apr 2026Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Neftchi Baku1-5Qarabag
9 Nov 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag2-0Neftchi Baku
19 Apr 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag3-0Neftchi Baku
16 Feb 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Neftchi Baku0-1Qarabag
1 Dec 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Neftchi Baku0-3Qarabag
20 Sep 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag4-0Neftchi Baku
4 May 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag5-0Neftchi Baku
24 Apr 2024Cup	Cup	Qarabag4-1Neftchi Baku
2 Apr 2024Cup	Cup	Neftchi Baku0-4Qarabag

Premyer Liqa tablePremyer Liqasiupdated 17 Oct 18:21 UTC

In the Premyer Liqa table, Qarabag sit 3rd with 17 points from 7 games, while Neftchi Baku are 2nd with 17 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Sabah FA	7	6	1	0	18:1	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	5	2	1	21:8	+13	17
3	Qarabag	7	5	2	0	14:7	+7	17
4	Turan	7	4	2	1	7:4	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	3	4	1	12:9	+3	13
6	Zira	7	3	2	2	8:9	-1	11
7	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6:7	-1	10
8	Sumqayıt	7	2	2	3	10:10	0	8
9	Qabala	8	1	1	6	3:15	-12	4
10	Imisli FK	7	1	1	5	6:13	-7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	1	0	7	4:15	-11	3
12	Araz	8	0	2	6	6:17	-11	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg148%1.89X27%3.38225%3.59

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.92 → 1.89 -1.6%X3.38 → 3.38 0.0%23.44 → 3.59 +4.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Pinnacle	1.69	2.11	6.6%
1xBet	1.66	2.05	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.66	2.05	9.0%
BetVictor	1.63	1.97	12.1%
Best of all books	1.70	2.11	6.2%
Average	1.67	2.06	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
William Hill	1.62	2.15	8.2%
1xBet	1.57	2.20	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.57	2.16	10.0%
BetVictor	1.53	2.15	11.9%
Best of all books	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Average	1.58	2.17	9.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Qarabag 45%Draw 45%Neftchi Baku 10%

The statistical model rated Qarabag at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Neftchi Baku at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.89 | 3.38 | 3.59, which imply roughly 52.9% for a Qarabag win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premyer Liqa table: Qarabag are 3rd (17 pts, 14-7 goals), Neftchi Baku 2nd (17 pts, 21-8).

Over their last five matches, Qarabag averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Neftchi Baku averaged 2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Qarabag or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.89	3.38	3.59

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.22	1.77	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.38	2.77

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.58	2.17

1st half

1	X	2
2.45	2.21	4.00

2nd half

1	X	2
2.17	2.57	3.79

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.84	14.5	34.0
HT X	4.87	5.47	8.47
HT 2	23.0	14.7	6.13

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.62	12.9	2.37

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	10.0
1.5	1.19	4.09
2.5	1.67	2.06
3.5	2.65	1.41
4.5	4.76	1.14
5.5	8.80	1.03
6.5	12.0	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	–	9.30
1.25	1.09	5.40
1.75	1.22	3.50
2	1.28	3.19
2.25	1.48	2.39
2.75	1.82	1.84
3	2.08	1.62
3.25	2.33	1.49
3.75	3.05	1.28
4	3.95	1.17
4.25	4.30	1.15
4.75	5.80	1.07
5	8.00	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.94	1.34
-1	2.60	1.42
-0.75	2.12	1.62
-0.5	1.87	1.85
-0.25	1.63	2.10
0	1.40	2.66

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	7.60	1.03
-2.5	6.30	1.07
-2.25	5.95	1.09
-2	5.63	1.10
-1.75	3.97	1.19
-1.5	3.17	1.29
+0.25	1.30	3.13
+0.5	1.24	3.90
+0.75	1.15	4.72
+1	1.07	6.77
+1.25	1.04	7.10
+1.5	1.03	7.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	6.70
6.5	1.17	3.92
7.5	1.40	2.64
8.5	1.73	2.00
9.5	2.19	1.59
10.5	2.92	1.32
11.5	4.20	1.14
12.5	6.47	1.03

7 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.04	6.12
7	1.22	3.50
8	1.51	2.34
9	1.97	1.79
10	2.62	1.40
11	3.82	1.18
12	6.02	1.04