Zira vs Qarabag• Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan

#51.5:1.51-1FT13/09 · Zira Stadium, Zira2.3:1.0#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.63AVGX3.47AVG21.85AVGMargin10.4%Books6Markets54Rating42 · 58Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Sep 19:11 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	4.00	3.50	1.80	9.1%
Pinnacle	2.40	3.87	2.40	9.2%
Bet365	2.62	3.20	2.40	11.1%
1xBet	2.55	3.58	2.27	11.2%
Marathonbet	2.61	3.58	2.22	11.3%
William Hill	2.62	3.25	2.30	12.4%
Best of all books	2.62	3.87	2.40	5.7%
Average	2.80	3.50	2.23	9.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ZiraQarabag

Last 10#5Table position#31.67Points per game2.607Form pts · last 5101.5Goals for · last 52.31.5Goals against · last 51.046Attack rating5433Defence rating6750Form rating5038H2H rating620Goals model10042Overall rating58

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 20:11 UTC

Zira

5W 2D 3L · goals 14:10 · per match 1.4 for, 1.0 against

19 Sep	A	Turan	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	Qarabag	1-1	D
5 Sep	A	Sabah FA	0-5	L
30 Aug	H	Neftchi Baku	1-0	W
22 Aug	H	Imisli FK	3-1	W
16 Aug	H	Safa Baku	2-0	W
30 Jul	H	Paide	1-1	D
23 Jul	A	Paide	0-1	L
16 Jul	A	Torpedo Kutaisi	3-0	W
8 Jul	H	Torpedo Kutaisi	3-0	W

Qarabag

5W 3D 2L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

13 Sep	A	Zira	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Araz	3-2	W
31 Aug	A	Sumqayıt	1-0	W
27 Aug	H	Twente	1-4	L
20 Aug	A	Twente	1-0	W
17 Aug	H	Şamaxı FK	3-1	W
13 Aug	H	Dynamo Kyiv	2-0	W
6 Aug	A	Dynamo Kyiv	0-1	L
30 Jul	A	CSKA Sofia	0-0	D
23 Jul	H	CSKA Sofia	0-0	D

Head to head

2Zira wins

14draws

28Qarabag wins

44 meetings · goals 26:88 · last 10: 1W 2D 7L for Zira

14 Mar 2026Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Zira1-3Qarabag
6 Dec 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Zira1-1Qarabag
12 Sep 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag1-1Zira
6 Apr 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag1-0Zira
2 Feb 2025Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Zira3-2Qarabag
10 Nov 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag4-0Zira
1 Sep 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Zira1-3Qarabag
2 Jun 2024Cup	Cup	Qarabag2-1Zira
11 May 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Zira0-1Qarabag
10 Mar 2024Premyer Liqa	Premyer Liqa	Qarabag3-1Zira

Premyer Liqa tablePremyer Liqasiupdated 9 Oct 20:11 UTC

In the Premyer Liqa table, Zira sit 5th with 10 points from 6 games, while Qarabag are 3rd with 13 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	18:5	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	5	1	0	14:1	+13	16
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9:4	+5	13
4	Turan	6	3	2	1	6:4	+2	11
5	Zira	6	3	1	2	7:8	-1	10
6	Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6:7	-1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	6	2	3	1	8:6	+2	9
8	Qabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4
9	Imisli FK	6	1	1	4	6:11	-5	4
10	Safa Baku	6	1	0	5	2:11	-9	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	0	2	3	4:8	-4	2
12	Araz	7	0	2	5	5:15	-10	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg125%3.63X26%3.47249%1.85

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.4% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.89	1.89	5.8%
1xBet	1.83	1.85	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.85	8.7%
BetVictor	1.76	1.81	12.1%
Best of all books	1.89	1.95	4.2%
Average	1.83	1.87	8.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Bet365	1.80	1.91	7.9%
1xBet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.68	1.99	9.8%
BetVictor	1.67	1.93	11.7%
Best of all books	1.80	2.10	3.2%
Average	1.70	1.99	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Zira 10%Draw 45%Qarabag 45%

The statistical model rated Zira at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Qarabag at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.63 | 3.47 | 1.85, which imply roughly 28.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premyer Liqa table: Zira are 5th (10 pts, 7-8 goals), Qarabag 3rd (13 pts, 9-4).

Over their last five matches, Zira averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Qarabag averaged 2.3 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Qarabag.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.80	3.50	2.23

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.66	1.31	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
2.60	1.46

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.70	1.99

1st half

1	X	2
3.86	2.22	2.54

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.26	12.3	1.72

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	9.45
1.5	1.25	3.51
2.5	1.83	1.87
3.5	3.09	1.31
4.5	5.90	1.09
5.5	10.3	1.04
6.5	15.0	1.01
7.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.90
1	1.01	8.90
1.25	1.12	4.64
1.75	1.31	3.00
2	1.40	2.59
2.25	1.62	2.10
2.75	2.04	1.64
3	2.44	1.45
3.25	2.82	1.35
3.75	3.82	1.19
4	5.15	1.10
4.25	5.45	1.08
4.75	7.30	1.03
5	9.25	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.54	1.51
0	2.13	1.69
+0.25	1.83	1.89
+0.5	1.73	2.03
+0.75	1.51	2.41
+1	1.35	2.95

16 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	10.0	1.01
-2	9.00	1.02
-1.75	6.98	1.04
-1.5	5.33	1.09
-1.25	4.88	1.12
-1	4.43	1.13
-0.75	3.62	1.27
-0.5	3.26	1.38
+1.25	1.27	3.47
+1.5	1.21	4.00
+1.75	1.13	5.11
+2	1.06	7.63
+2.25	1.08	5.97
+2.5	1.07	8.57
+2.75	1.06	7.27
+3	1.01	8.70