Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania• Ligi kuu Bara, Tanzania

#151.4:2.41-1FTToday · Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba1.4:1.6#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.45B365X3.181XB23.431XBMargin at best1.4%Books4Markets31Rating46 · 54 levelExp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 11:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.98	3.18	3.43	11.1%
Bet365	2.45	2.88	2.75	11.9%
Marathonbet	2.44	2.81	2.80	12.3%
William Hill	2.40	2.88	2.75	12.8%
Best of all books	2.45	3.18	3.43	1.4%
Average	2.32	2.94	2.93	11.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Kagera SugarPolisi Tanzania

Last 10#15Table position#70.71Points per game1.434Form pts · last 561.4Goals for · last 51.42.4Goals against · last 51.650Attack rating5040Defence rating6040Form rating6075H2H rating2525Goals model7546Overall rating54

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 08:31 UTC

Kagera Sugar

1W 3D 6L · goals 8:17 · per match 0.8 for, 1.7 against

9 Oct	A	Mbeya City	3-1	W
13 Sep	H	Fountain Gate	1-1	D
31 Aug	H	Azam	0-2	L
27 Aug	A	Mashujaa	1-2	L
22 Aug	A	Geita Gold	2-6	L
19 Aug	H	Singida Black Stars	1-1	D
16 Aug	H	Simba	0-2	L
22 Jun	A	Simba	0-1	L
18 Jun	A	Namungo	0-0	D
12 May	H	Mashujaa	0-1	L

Polisi Tanzania

5W 1D 4L · goals 17:11 · per match 1.7 for, 1.1 against

8 Oct	A	Mashujaa	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Mbeya City	2-0	W
6 Sep	H	Coastal Union	1-2	L
29 Aug	A	Singida Black Stars	2-4	L
25 Aug	A	Dodoma Jiji	1-0	W
20 Aug	H	JKT Tanzania	2-0	W
15 Aug	H	Azam	1-1	D
16 Jul	A	Tanzania Prisons	0-1	L
12 Jul	H	Tanzania Prisons	4-0	W
5 Jul	H	Mbeya Kwanza	3-1	W

Head to head

2Kagera Sugar wins

4draws

2Polisi Tanzania wins

8 meetings · goals 7:6 · last 8: 2W 4D 2L for Kagera Sugar

6 Feb 2023Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Polisi Tanzania0-0Kagera Sugar
8 Oct 2022Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar2-0Polisi Tanzania
29 Jun 2022Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar0-0Polisi Tanzania
19 Feb 2022Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Polisi Tanzania0-0Kagera Sugar
15 Jul 2021Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Polisi Tanzania0-1Kagera Sugar
22 Dec 2020Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar2-2Polisi Tanzania
18 Jul 2020Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar1-2Polisi Tanzania
11 Jan 2020Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Polisi Tanzania2-1Kagera Sugar

Ligi kuu Bara tableLigi kuu Baraupdated 17 Oct 08:31 UTC

In the Ligi kuu Bara table, Kagera Sugar sit 15th with 5 points from 7 games, while Polisi Tanzania are 7th with 10 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Simba	8	8	0	0	19:4	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	6	0	1	17:4	+13	18
3	Azam	8	5	2	1	13:7	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	4	2	2	8:5	+3	14
5	Mashujaa	8	4	0	4	9:13	-4	12
6	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	14:11	+3	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	3	1	3	10:9	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	3	1	3	7:7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	3	1	3	9:11	-2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	3	1	4	7:11	-4	10
11	Namungo	8	3	0	5	7:11	-4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	2	1	5	9:15	-6	7
13	Tabora United	7	1	3	3	6:7	-1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	8	1	2	5	9:14	-5	5
15	Kagera Sugar	7	1	2	4	8:15	-7	5
16	Fountain Gate	8	1	2	5	4:12	-8	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg139%2.32X31%2.94231%2.93

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.41 → 2.32 -3.7%X2.93 → 2.94 +0.3%22.74 → 2.93 +6.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.38	1.53	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.36	1.50	9.0%
1xBet	2.29	1.52	9.5%
Best of all books	2.38	1.53	7.4%
Average	2.34	1.52	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.95	1.73	9.1%
1xBet	2.01	1.68	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.96	1.70	9.8%
Best of all books	2.01	1.73	7.6%
Average	1.97	1.70	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Kagera Sugar 10%Draw 45%Polisi Tanzania 45%

The statistical model rated Kagera Sugar at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Polisi Tanzania at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.32 | 2.94 | 2.93, which imply roughly 34% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligi kuu Bara table: Kagera Sugar are 15th (5 pts, 8-15 goals), Polisi Tanzania 7th (10 pts, 10-9).

Over their last five matches, Kagera Sugar averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Polisi Tanzania averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Polisi Tanzania.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.32	2.94	2.93

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.31	1.48	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.73	2.00

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.97	1.70

1st half

1	X	2
3.02	1.96	3.68

2nd half

1	X	2
2.77	2.12	3.54

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.00	15.0	34.0
HT X	5.50	4.33	6.00
HT 2	34.0	17.0	4.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.99	6.48	2.18

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.39	2.63
2.5	2.34	1.52
3.5	3.53	1.27

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.09	5.25
1.25	1.26	3.20
1.75	1.53	2.21
2	1.71	1.95
2.25	2.03	1.63
2.75	2.74	1.35
3	3.67	1.21
3.25	4.00	1.17
4	8.30	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.80	1.21
-0.75	2.97	1.30
-0.25	2.06	1.62
0	1.65	2.15
+0.25	1.47	2.35
+0.75	1.22	3.50

4 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.30	1.09
-1.25	4.80	1.11
+1	1.27	3.89
+1.5	1.17	4.75