Simba vs Mashujaa• Ligi kuu Bara, Tanzania

#11.8:0.46-1FTToday · Isamuhyo Stadium, Dar es Salaam1.4:1.2#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.22B365X5.80WH215.51XBMargin at best5.7%Books7Markets53Rating74 · 26Exp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Oct 12:43 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
William Hill	1.17	5.80	15.0	9.4%
Bet365	1.22	5.25	11.0	10.1%
1xBet	1.18	5.10	15.5	10.8%
Dafabet	1.20	5.20	12.0	10.9%
Betano	1.21	5.10	11.3	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.17	5.10	14.3	12.1%
Betfair	1.18	5.00	13.0	12.4%
Best of all books	1.22	5.80	15.5	5.7%
Average	1.19	5.22	13.1	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SimbaMashujaa

Last 10#1Table position#43.00Points per game1.7115Form pts · last 591.8Goals for · last 51.40.4Goals against · last 51.256Attack rating4475Defence rating2563Form rating38100H2H rating087Goals model1374Overall rating26

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Oct 14:50 UTC

Simba

10W 0D 0L · goals 22:5 · per match 2.2 for, 0.5 against

10 Oct	H	Young Africans	2-1	W
16 Sep	A	Azam	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Be Forward Wanderers	6-1	W
6 Sep	A	Be Forward Wanderers	1-0	W
31 Aug	H	Geita Gold	2-0	W
27 Aug	H	Coastal Union	1-0	W
22 Aug	A	Singida Black Stars	2-1	W
19 Aug	A	Pamba Jiji	2-1	W
16 Aug	A	Kagera Sugar	2-0	W
31 Jul	A	Singida Black Stars	2-1	W

Mashujaa

6W 0D 4L · goals 11:8 · per match 1.1 for, 0.8 against

8 Oct	H	Polisi Tanzania	2-1	W
9 Sep	H	Singida Black Stars	2-1	W
4 Sep	A	Dodoma Jiji	0-1	L
27 Aug	H	Kagera Sugar	2-1	W
23 Aug	A	Mbeya City	1-2	L
18 Aug	A	Fountain Gate	0-1	L
15 Aug	A	Coastal Union	1-0	W
30 Jun	H	Tanzania Prisons	0-1	L
27 Jun	H	KMC	2-0	W
24 Jun	A	Fountain Gate	1-0	W

Head to head

6Simba wins

0draws

0Mashujaa wins

6 meetings · goals 11:1 · last 6: 6W 0D 0L for Simba

14 May 2026Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mashujaa0-3Simba
29 Jan 2026Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Simba2-0Mashujaa
2 May 2025Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Simba2-1Mashujaa
1 Nov 2024Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mashujaa0-1Simba
15 Mar 2024Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Simba2-0Mashujaa
3 Feb 2024Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mashujaa0-1Simba

Ligi kuu Bara tableLigi kuu Baraupdated 13 Oct 02:30 UTC

In the Ligi kuu Bara table, Simba sit 1st with 21 points from 7 games, while Mashujaa are 4th with 12 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Simba	7	7	0	0	13:3	+10	21
2	Young Africans	7	6	0	1	17:4	+13	18
3	Azam	8	5	2	1	13:7	+6	17
4	Mashujaa	7	4	0	3	8:7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	14:11	+3	11
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	3	2	2	5:5	0	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	3	1	3	10:9	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	3	1	3	7:7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	3	1	3	9:11	-2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	3	1	4	7:11	-4	10
11	Namungo	8	3	0	5	7:11	-4	9
12	Geita Gold	7	2	1	4	9:12	-3	7
13	Tabora United	7	1	3	3	6:7	-1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	1	2	4	8:15	-7	5
15	Pamba Jiji	7	1	1	5	8:13	-5	4
16	Fountain Gate	7	1	1	5	3:11	-8	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg176%1.19X17%5.2227%13.1

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.14 → 1.19 +4.4%X6.25 → 5.22 -16.5%215.0 → 13.1 -12.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.75	2.05	5.9%
Betfair	1.85	1.85	8.1%
1xBet	1.74	1.94	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.74	1.94	9.0%
Pinnacle	1.74	1.94	9.0%
Betano	1.72	1.91	10.5%
Best of all books	1.85	2.05	2.8%
Average	1.76	1.94	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.55	1.45	8.2%
1xBet	2.67	1.40	8.9%
William Hill	2.60	1.40	9.9%
Marathonbet	2.67	1.38	9.9%
Best of all books	2.67	1.45	6.4%
Average	2.62	1.41	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Simba 45%Draw 45%Mashujaa 10%

The statistical model rated Simba at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mashujaa at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.19 | 5.22 | 13.14, which imply roughly 84% for a Simba win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligi kuu Bara table: Simba are 1st (21 pts, 13-3 goals), Mashujaa 4th (12 pts, 8-7).

Over their last five matches, Simba averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Mashujaa averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Simba or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.19	5.22	13.1

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	3.96	1.10

Draw no bet

1	2
1.04	8.40

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.62	1.41

1st half

1	X	2
1.62	2.42	11.9

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.19	9.25	5.95

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	10.1
1.5	1.23	3.53
2.5	1.76	1.94
3.5	2.87	1.34
4.5	5.80	1.10
5.5	11.0	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.50
1.75	1.29	3.04
2	1.35	2.76
2.25	1.54	2.22
2.75	1.93	1.74
3	2.23	1.53
3.25	2.50	1.42
3.75	3.20	1.26
4	4.20	1.16

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	2.54	1.41
-2.25	2.29	1.50
-2	2.01	1.70
-1.75	1.80	1.89
-1.5	1.62	2.07
-1.25	1.43	2.46

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	8.20	1.03
-4	7.70	1.02
-3.5	4.50	1.13
-3.25	3.58	1.21
-3	3.85	1.18
-2.75	2.95	1.31
-1	1.26	3.25
-0.75	1.22	3.50
-0.25	1.06	6.98
0	1.04	8.45

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	2.00	1.80