Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar• Ligi kuu Bara, Tanzania

#61.2:0.61-3FTToday · Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya1.0:2.4#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20BFRX3.30DAF24.50WHMargin10.7%Books8Markets40Rating59 · 41Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 09:56 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betfair	2.20	3.00	3.20	10.0%
Dafabet	1.78	3.30	4.20	10.3%
Bet365	1.80	3.25	4.10	10.7%
1xBet	1.78	3.18	4.32	10.8%
Betano	1.83	3.10	4.15	11.0%
Marathonbet	2.43	3.12	2.57	12.1%
William Hill	1.75	3.00	4.50	12.7%
BetVictor	1.65	2.88	4.10	19.7%
Best of all books	2.20	3.30	4.50	-2.0%
Average	1.90	3.10	3.89	10.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Mbeya CityKagera Sugar

Last 10#6Table position#161.67Points per game0.3310Form pts · last 521.2Goals for · last 51.00.6Goals against · last 52.455Attack rating4580Defence rating2083Form rating1725H2H rating7577Goals model2359Overall rating41

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 12:20 UTC

Mbeya City

4W 4D 2L · goals 9:5 · per match 0.9 for, 0.5 against

12 Sep	A	Polisi Tanzania	0-2	L
4 Sep	A	Tabora United	0-0	D
28 Aug	A	Fountain Gate	2-0	W
23 Aug	H	Mashujaa	2-1	W
19 Aug	H	Dodoma Jiji	2-0	W
14 Aug	H	Geita Gold	0-1	L
8 Jul	A	Tanzania Prisons	0-0	D
5 Jul	H	Tanzania Prisons	2-0	W
30 Jun	H	Tabora United	0-0	D
27 Jun	A	Dodoma Jiji	1-1	D

Kagera Sugar

0W 3D 7L · goals 7:20 · per match 0.7 for, 2.0 against

13 Sep	H	Fountain Gate	1-1	D
31 Aug	H	Azam	0-2	L
27 Aug	A	Mashujaa	1-2	L
22 Aug	A	Geita Gold	2-6	L
19 Aug	H	Singida Black Stars	1-1	D
16 Aug	H	Simba	0-2	L
22 Jun	A	Simba	0-1	L
18 Jun	A	Namungo	0-0	D
12 May	H	Mashujaa	0-1	L
19 Apr	H	Azam	2-4	L

Head to head

2Mbeya City wins

7draws

5Kagera Sugar wins

14 meetings · goals 8:14 · last 10: 2W 5D 3L for Mbeya City

23 Apr 2023Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar1-0Mbeya City
17 Nov 2022Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mbeya City2-2Kagera Sugar
12 Mar 2022Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mbeya City0-1Kagera Sugar
16 Oct 2021Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar0-0Mbeya City
8 Apr 2021Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mbeya City0-0Kagera Sugar
24 Oct 2020Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar1-2Mbeya City
4 Mar 2020Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar2-3Mbeya City
24 Oct 2019Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mbeya City1-4Kagera Sugar
6 May 2018Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Kagera Sugar0-0Mbeya City
2 Jan 2018Ligi kuu Bara	Ligi kuu Bara	Mbeya City0-0Kagera Sugar

Ligi kuu Bara tableLigi kuu Baraupdated 9 Oct 17:11 UTC

In the Ligi kuu Bara table, Mbeya City sit 6th with 10 points from 6 games, while Kagera Sugar are 16th with 2 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	6	6	0	0	16:2	+14	18
2	Simba	6	6	0	0	11:2	+9	18
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	11:7	+4	14
4	Mashujaa	7	4	0	3	8:7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	6	3	1	2	13:9	+4	10
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	6:4	+2	10
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	3	1	3	10:9	+1	10
8	Dodoma Jiji	6	3	1	2	4:4	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	3	1	3	9:11	-2	10
10	Namungo	8	3	0	5	7:11	-4	9
11	Geita Gold	7	2	1	4	9:12	-3	7
12	Coastal Union	6	2	1	3	6:9	-3	7
13	Tabora United	7	1	3	3	6:7	-1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	7	1	1	5	8:13	-5	4
15	Fountain Gate	7	1	1	5	3:11	-8	4
16	Kagera Sugar	6	0	2	4	5:14	-9	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg146%1.95X30%3.05224%3.76

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.70 → 1.90 +11.8%X3.33 → 3.10 -6.9%24.61 → 3.89 -15.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
1xBet	2.31	1.52	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.31	1.52	9.1%
Pinnacle	2.33	1.50	9.6%
Betano	2.25	1.52	10.2%
BetVictor	2.05	1.40	20.2%
Best of all books	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Average	2.26	1.51	10.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
1xBet	2.08	1.64	9.1%
William Hill	2.10	1.62	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.96	1.70	9.8%
BetVictor	1.93	1.47	19.8%
Best of all books	2.20	1.70	4.3%
Average	2.05	1.61	11.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mbeya City 45%Draw 45%Kagera Sugar 10%

The statistical model rated Mbeya City at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Kagera Sugar at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.95 | 3.05 | 3.76, which imply roughly 51.3% for a Mbeya City win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligi kuu Bara table: Mbeya City are 6th (10 pts, 6-4 goals), Kagera Sugar 16th (2 pts, 5-14).

Over their last five matches, Mbeya City averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Kagera Sugar averaged 1 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Mbeya City or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.90	3.10	3.89

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.20	1.79	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.25	3.27

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.05	1.61

1st half

1	X	2
2.52	1.97	4.71

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.78	7.25	2.53

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	7.45
1.5	1.41	2.60
2.5	2.26	1.51
3.5	4.47	1.15
4.5	9.50	1.04
5.5	26.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.07	5.88
1.25	1.25	3.32
1.75	1.54	2.25
2	1.71	1.89
2.25	1.96	1.65
2.75	2.74	1.36
3	3.58	1.21
3.25	4.05	1.17
4	8.40	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.30	1.54
-0.5	2.06	1.67
-0.25	1.89	1.82
0	1.63	2.28
+0.25	1.45	2.62
+0.5	1.46	2.43

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.50	1.03
-2	6.60	1.05
-1.75	4.39	1.14
-1.5	3.98	1.20
-1.25	3.60	1.25
-1	2.70	1.49
+0.75	1.29	3.07
+1	1.11	4.80
+1.25	1.12	4.65
+1.5	1.04	7.85