Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle• Segunda División, Chile

#101.2:1.01-2FT26/090.8:0.6#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.82BTNX3.44PIN24.40BFRMargin at best6.7%Books6Markets39Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L51.8

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Sep 20:38 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.82	3.40	4.05	9.0%
Pinnacle	1.78	3.44	3.96	10.5%
1xBet	1.79	3.32	4.01	10.9%
Bet365	1.91	3.25	3.50	11.7%
Marathonbet	1.77	3.32	3.90	12.3%
Betfair	1.80	–	4.20	–
Best of all books	1.91	3.44	4.20	5.2%
Average	1.81	3.35	3.94	10.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Lota SchwagerProvincial Ovalle

Last 10#10Table position#141.08Points per game0.505Form pts · last 581.2Goals for · last 50.81.0Goals against · last 50.660Attack rating4038Defence rating6343Form rating570H2H rating064Goals model3651Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 3 Oct 19:11 UTC

Lota Schwager

3W 4D 3L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

26 Sep	H	Provincial Ovalle	1-2	L
29 Aug	A	Colina	0-0	D
22 Aug	H	Santiago Morning	1-1	D
16 Aug	A	Deportes Rengo	0-1	L
8 Aug	H	General Velásquez	3-1	W
12 Jul	H	Provincial Osorno	2-2	D
5 Jul	A	Colchagua	2-0	W
28 Jun	A	General Velásquez	1-2	L
21 Jun	H	Santiago Morning	1-1	D
14 Jun	A	Linares Unido	1-0	W

Provincial Ovalle

3W 3D 4L · goals 10:15 · per match 1.0 for, 1.5 against

26 Sep	A	Lota Schwager	2-1	W
7 Sep	H	Colina	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Santiago Morning	0-0	D
22 Aug	H	Real San Joaquín	1-1	D
16 Aug	A	General Velásquez	0-1	L
4 Jul	H	Colina	2-1	W
26 Jun	A	Santiago City	2-3	L
21 Jun	H	Real San Joaquín	1-6	L
8 Jun	H	Trasandino	1-1	D
30 May	A	Concón National	0-1	L

Head to head

No previous meetings between Lota Schwager and Provincial Ovalle on record.

Segunda División tableRegular Seasonupdated 10 Oct 20:31 UTC

In the Segunda División table, Lota Schwager sit 10th with 13 points from 12 games, while Provincial Ovalle are 14th with 6 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Provincial Osorno	12	6	6	0	15:5	+10	24
2	Municipal Salamanca	12	5	7	0	11:5	+6	22
3	Colchagua	12	6	4	2	15:11	+4	22
4	Concón National	12	6	3	3	16:10	+6	21
5	Santiago City	12	5	5	2	18:19	-1	20
6	Linares Unido	12	6	1	5	16:12	+4	19
7	Trasandino	12	5	3	4	19:17	+2	18
8	General Velásquez	12	5	1	6	11:15	-4	16
9	Real San Joaquín	12	3	4	5	16:17	-1	13
10	Lota Schwager	12	3	4	5	11:13	-2	13
11	Colina	12	3	3	6	15:14	+1	12
12	Deportes Rengo	12	3	2	7	10:17	-7	11
13	Santiago Morning	12	2	4	6	9:14	-5	10
14	Provincial Ovalle	12	1	3	8	11:24	-13	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg151%1.77X27%3.38222%4.02

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.81 → 1.78 -1.7%X3.35 → 3.38 +0.9%23.94 → 4.05 +2.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.30	1.60	6.0%
Pinnacle	2.19	1.62	7.4%
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
1xBet	2.15	1.60	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.15	1.60	9.0%
Betano	2.10	1.57	11.3%
Best of all books	2.30	1.62	5.2%
Average	2.19	1.59	8.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.05	1.73	6.6%
1xBet	1.97	1.72	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.97	1.69	9.9%
Betano	1.98	1.65	11.1%
Best of all books	2.05	1.73	6.6%
Average	1.99	1.70	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lota Schwager 45%Draw 45%Provincial Ovalle 10%

The statistical model rated Lota Schwager at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Provincial Ovalle at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.77 | 3.38 | 4.02, which imply roughly 56.5% for a Lota Schwager win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda División table: Lota Schwager are 10th (13 pts, 11-13 goals), Provincial Ovalle 14th (6 pts, 11-24).

Over their last five matches, Lota Schwager averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Provincial Ovalle averaged 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Lota Schwager or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.81	3.35	3.94

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.18	1.82	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.37	2.76

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.99	1.70

1st half

1	X	2
2.47	2.02	4.67

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.61	7.50	2.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	7.10
1.5	1.37	2.69
2.5	2.19	1.59
3.5	3.96	1.19
4.5	7.35	1.07
5.5	21.0	–

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.06	6.25
1.25	1.21	3.58
1.75	1.47	2.40
2	1.63	2.09
2.25	1.90	1.79
2.75	2.51	1.43
3	3.18	1.28
3.25	3.50	1.22
3.75	4.79	1.12
4	6.90	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.90	1.33
-1	2.53	1.42
-0.75	2.02	1.67
-0.5	1.84	1.91
-0.25	1.56	2.23
0	1.33	2.93

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.10	1.04
-2	6.25	1.06
-1.5	3.34	1.24
+0.25	1.25	3.33
+0.75	1.11	4.96
+1	1.02	8.10
+1.5	1.01	9.00