São João Ver vs Varzim• Liga 3, Portugal

#90.6:1.214:00Tomorrow · Aveiro1.6:1.0#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.30PINX3.15DAF22.28PINMargin at best5.9%Books8Markets38Rating30 · 70Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:46 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.30	2.97	2.28	7.8%
Dafabet	3.15	3.20	2.23	7.8%
Betfair	3.10	3.10	2.25	9.0%
Betano	3.10	3.05	2.27	9.1%
1xBet	3.10	3.02	2.20	10.8%
Bet365	3.00	3.10	2.20	11.0%
Marathonbet	3.02	3.02	2.18	12.1%
William Hill	3.10	2.88	2.20	12.4%
Best of all books	3.30	3.20	2.28	5.4%
Average	3.11	3.04	2.23	10.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

São João VerVarzim

Last 10#9Table position#30.60Points per game1.803Form pts · last 560.6Goals for · last 51.61.2Goals against · last 51.027Attack rating7345Defence rating5525Form rating7538H2H rating625Goals model9530Overall rating70

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 18:32 UTC

São João Ver

2W 5D 3L · goals 7:9 · per match 0.7 for, 0.9 against

13 Sep	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	AD Marco 09	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Florgrade	0-0	D
22 Aug	A	Trofense	0-1	L
16 Aug	H	Fafe	1-3	L
9 Aug	A	Leça	1-1	D
29 Jul	A	Tondela	1-1	D
18 Jul	A	União Lamas	1-0	W
3 Jul	A	SC Braga	0-1	L
3 May	H	Sanjoanense	2-1	W

Varzim

5W 1D 4L · goals 17:11 · per match 1.7 for, 1.1 against

19 Sep	A	Vitória de Sernache	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Vianense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	Paredes	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Trofense	5-1	W
22 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	4-1	W
16 Aug	H	AD Marco 09	2-1	W
9 Aug	A	Trofense	1-0	W
29 Jul	A	Tirsense	1-0	W
15 Jul	A	Tondela	0-1	L
16 May	A	União Santarém	2-2	D

Head to head

4São João Ver wins

2draws

3Varzim wins

9 meetings · goals 10:11 · last 9: 4W 2D 3L for São João Ver

29 Nov 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	São João Ver1-1Varzim
16 Aug 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim4-0São João Ver
26 Jan 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	São João Ver4-1Varzim
26 Oct 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim2-0São João Ver
22 Apr 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim1-1São João Ver
1 Apr 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	São João Ver2-1Varzim
11 Feb 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim0-1São João Ver
8 Nov 2022Taça de Portugal	Taça de Portugal	Varzim1-0São João Ver
29 Oct 2022Liga 3	Liga 3	São João Ver1-0Varzim

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, São João Ver sit 9th with 3 points from 5 games, while Varzim are 3rd with 9 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	8:4	+4	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	13:2	+11	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	6:3	+3	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	8:3	+5	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	8:5	+3	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	7:7	0	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8:4	+4	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	9:5	+4	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	6:5	+1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7:8	-1	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	5:5	0	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
7	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	6:10	-4	7
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	2:7	-5	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3:6	-3	3
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	4:8	-4	5
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	5:10	-5	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	3:13	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg129%3.07X30%3.03241%2.23

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.32	1.59	6.0%
Bet365	2.25	1.62	6.2%
Betano	2.15	1.60	9.0%
1xBet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Best of all books	2.32	1.62	4.8%
Average	2.23	1.59	7.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Betano	1.88	1.80	8.7%
1xBet	1.91	1.77	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.91	1.74	9.8%
Best of all books	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Average	1.90	1.78	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

São João Ver 10%Draw 45%Varzim 45%

The statistical model rates São João Ver at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Varzim at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.07 | 3.03 | 2.23, which imply roughly 33% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: São João Ver are 9th (3 pts, 3-6 goals), Varzim 3rd (9 pts, 8-5).

Over their last five matches, São João Ver averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Varzim averaged 1.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Varzim.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.11	3.04	2.23

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.56	1.29	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
2.17	1.61

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.90	1.78

1st half

1	X	2
3.76	1.99	2.92

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.26	7.00	1.88

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.08	6.66
1.5	1.39	2.68
2.5	2.23	1.59
3.5	3.93	1.19
4.5	7.65	1.07
5.5	23.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.07	5.75
1.25	1.23	3.42
1.75	1.50	2.38
2	1.67	2.04
2.25	1.96	1.74
2.75	2.61	1.41
3	3.35	1.26
3.25	3.70	1.20
4	7.20	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	3.22	1.32
-0.25	2.61	1.42
0	2.22	1.59
+0.25	1.81	1.91
+0.5	1.62	2.27
+0.75	1.41	2.61

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	6.65	1.05
-1	5.70	1.08
-0.75	3.63	1.22
+1	1.23	3.56
+1.25	1.17	3.98
+1.5	1.14	4.40
+2	1.01	8.70
+2.5	1.01	9.70