Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses• Liga 3, Portugal

#41.8:1.010:00Tomorrow · Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra2.6:0.4#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.06PINX3.20B36522.36PINMargin at best6.3%Books8Markets37Rating30 · 70Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:46 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.06	3.05	2.36	7.8%
Dafabet	3.00	3.15	2.32	8.2%
Betano	3.00	3.05	2.35	8.7%
Betfair	2.88	3.20	2.30	9.5%
1xBet	2.91	3.14	2.24	10.9%
Bet365	2.80	3.20	2.25	11.4%
Marathonbet	2.83	3.14	2.22	12.2%
William Hill	2.90	2.90	2.30	12.4%
Best of all books	3.06	3.20	2.36	6.3%
Average	2.92	3.10	2.29	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MafraCF Os Belenenses

Last 10#4Table position#11.40Points per game3.007Form pts · last 5151.8Goals for · last 52.61.0Goals against · last 50.441Attack rating5929Defence rating7132Form rating6815H2H rating85100Goals model030Overall rating70

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 18:20 UTC

Mafra

5W 2D 3L · goals 19:12 · per match 1.9 for, 1.2 against

19 Sep	H	Tirsense	2-2	D
12 Sep	A	Oliveirense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	SC Covilha	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Atlético Malveira	3-2	W
22 Aug	A	Lusitano Évora 1911	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Atlético CP	1-1	D
8 Aug	H	Vitória de Sernache	5-0	W
25 Jul	H	Alverca	1-0	W
15 Jul	A	FC Fredericia	2-3	L
11 Jul	A	Esbjerg	2-0	W

CF Os Belenenses

7W 1D 2L · goals 20:11 · per match 2.0 for, 1.1 against

19 Sep	A	Beira-Mar	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Atlético CP	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	Vitória de Sernache	3-1	W
30 Aug	A	Lusitano Évora 1911	2-1	W
22 Aug	H	União Santarém	5-0	W
15 Aug	A	Louletano	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Caldas	1-0	W
31 Jul	H	Estoril	1-1	D
24 Jul	A	Benfica	1-5	L
17 Jul	A	Alverca	1-2	L

Head to head

0Mafra wins

3draws

3CF Os Belenenses wins

6 meetings · goals 6:12 · last 6: 0W 3D 3L for Mafra

16 May 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses3-1Mafra
22 Mar 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Mafra1-4CF Os Belenenses
9 Nov 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses2-1Mafra
9 Aug 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Mafra1-1CF Os Belenenses
2 Feb 2024Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Mafra1-1CF Os Belenenses
26 Aug 2023Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	CF Os Belenenses1-1Mafra

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Mafra sit 4th with 7 points from 5 games, while CF Os Belenenses are 1st with 15 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	8:4	+4	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	13:2	+11	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	6:3	+3	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	8:3	+5	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	8:5	+3	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	7:7	0	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8:4	+4	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	9:5	+4	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	6:5	+1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7:8	-1	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	5:5	0	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
7	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	6:10	-4	7
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	2:7	-5	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3:6	-3	3
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	4:8	-4	5
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	5:10	-5	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	3:13	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg131%2.92X29%3.10240%2.29

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.76 → 2.92 +5.8%X3.07 → 3.10 +1.0%22.39 → 2.29 -4.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Bet365	2.05	1.75	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.05	1.75	5.9%
Betano	2.00	1.72	8.1%
1xBet	1.99	1.70	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.99	1.70	9.1%
Best of all books	2.10	1.75	4.8%
Average	2.03	1.72	7.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.00	7.8%
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
1xBet	1.77	1.90	9.1%
Betano	1.72	1.95	9.4%
Marathonbet	1.77	1.87	10.0%
Best of all books	1.77	2.00	6.5%
Average	1.75	1.93	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mafra 10%Draw 45%CF Os Belenenses 45%

The statistical model rates Mafra at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and CF Os Belenenses at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.29, which imply roughly 32.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Mafra are 4th (7 pts, 9-5 goals), CF Os Belenenses 1st (15 pts, 13-2).

Over their last five matches, Mafra averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; CF Os Belenenses averaged 2.6 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or CF Os Belenenses.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.92	3.10	2.29

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.52	1.33	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
2.09	1.66

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.75	1.93

1st half

1	X	2
3.52	2.05	2.92

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.13	8.25	1.89

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.85
1.5	1.32	3.08
2.5	2.03	1.73
3.5	3.49	1.25
4.5	6.87	1.08
5.5	16.0	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.80
1.25	1.17	3.98
1.75	1.38	2.71
2	1.51	2.35
2.25	1.77	1.94
2.75	2.28	1.53
3	2.81	1.35
3.25	3.08	1.28
4	5.90	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	3.00	1.36
-0.25	2.48	1.46
0	2.08	1.68
+0.25	1.77	1.96
+0.5	1.58	2.35
+0.75	1.39	2.68

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.95	1.07
-1	5.10	1.10
-0.75	3.48	1.24
+1	1.23	3.59
+1.25	1.17	3.98
+1.5	1.14	4.40
+2	1.01	8.50