Leça vs AD Marco 09• Liga 3, Portugal

#61.4:1.610:00Tomorrow · Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube, Leca da Palmeira1.2:0.6#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.26PINX3.25DAF23.20DAFMargin at best6.3%Books8Markets38Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 18:38 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.29	3.05	3.19	7.8%
Dafabet	2.17	3.25	3.20	8.1%
Betano	2.25	3.10	3.10	9.0%
1xBet	2.19	3.05	3.08	10.9%
Betfair	2.20	3.10	3.00	11.0%
Bet365	2.15	3.20	3.00	11.1%
Marathonbet	2.17	3.05	3.00	12.2%
William Hill	2.20	2.90	3.00	13.3%
Best of all books	2.29	3.25	3.20	5.7%
Average	2.20	3.09	3.07	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LeçaAD Marco 09

Last 10#6Table position#21.40Points per game2.009Form pts · last 5131.4Goals for · last 51.21.6Goals against · last 50.654Attack rating4627Defence rating7341Form rating5962H2H rating3830Goals model7045Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 17:11 UTC

Leça

4W 3D 3L · goals 11:13 · per match 1.1 for, 1.3 against

20 Sep	A	Mortágua	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Trofense	4-1	W
6 Sep	H	Fafe	0-3	L
23 Aug	A	Paredes	2-1	W
15 Aug	A	Guimaraes B	0-2	L
9 Aug	H	São João Ver	1-1	D
29 Jul	H	Lusitânia Lourosa	0-0	D
15 Jul	A	Santa Clara	0-4	L
10 Jun	H	Vitória de Sernache	1-1	D
31 May	H	Bragança	1-0	W

AD Marco 09

5W 3D 2L · goals 11:8 · per match 1.1 for, 0.8 against

20 Sep	H	Maia Lidador	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Guimaraes B	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	São João Ver	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Régua	1-0	W
23 Aug	H	Vianense	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Varzim	1-2	L
9 Aug	H	Pacos Ferreira	2-1	W
1 Aug	A	Cinfães	1-1	D
15 Jul	A	União de Leiria	0-2	L
3 May	A	Paredes	2-2	D

Head to head

2Leça wins

2draws

1AD Marco 09 wins

5 meetings · goals 6:5 · last 5: 2W 2D 1L for Leça

18 May 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	AD Marco 093-2Leça
27 Apr 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Leça1-0AD Marco 09
9 Feb 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	AD Marco 090-1Leça
29 Sep 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Leça0-0AD Marco 09
8 Sep 2024Taça de Portugal	Taça de Portugal	Leça2-2AD Marco 09

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 9 Oct 22:01 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Leça sit 6th with 7 points from 5 games, while AD Marco 09 are 2nd with 10 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	8:4	+4	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	13:2	+11	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	6:3	+3	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	8:3	+5	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	8:5	+3	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	7:7	0	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8:4	+4	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	9:5	+4	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	6:5	+1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7:8	-1	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	5:5	0	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
7	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	2:7	-5	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3:6	-3	3
9	União Santarém	5	1	1	3	3:10	-7	4
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	5:10	-5	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	3:13	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg141%2.20X29%3.11230%3.07

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.3% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.29	1.61	5.8%
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Betano	2.15	1.60	9.0%
1xBet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Best of all books	2.29	1.65	4.3%
Average	2.20	1.60	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Betano	1.90	1.78	8.8%
1xBet	1.88	1.79	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.88	1.76	10.0%
Best of all books	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Average	1.89	1.78	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leça 10%Draw 45%AD Marco 09 45%

The statistical model rates Leça at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and AD Marco 09 at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.20 | 3.11 | 3.07, which imply roughly 32.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Leça are 6th (7 pts, 7-8 goals), AD Marco 09 2nd (10 pts, 6-3).

Over their last five matches, Leça averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; AD Marco 09 averaged 1.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or AD Marco 09.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.20	3.09	3.07

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.30	1.56	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.59	2.20

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.89	1.78

1st half

1	X	2
2.88	2.01	3.76

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.83	7.75	2.26

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	6.66
1.5	1.38	2.74
2.5	2.20	1.60
3.5	3.93	1.19
4.5	7.65	1.07
5.5	21.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.06	6.15
1.25	1.23	3.54
1.75	1.47	2.43
2	1.65	2.07
2.25	1.94	1.76
2.75	2.57	1.42
3	3.33	1.26
3.25	3.68	1.20
4	7.40	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.63	1.41
-0.5	2.23	1.61
-0.25	1.91	1.82
0	1.59	2.21
+0.25	1.41	2.61
+0.5	1.34	3.12

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.60	1.01
-1.5	4.50	1.13
-1.25	4.05	1.16
-1	3.55	1.23
+0.75	1.19	3.80
+1	1.07	5.90
+1.5	1.04	6.95

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	1.85	1.85