Fafe vs Trofense• Liga 3, Portugal

#41.6:0.815:30Tomorrow · Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe, Fafe0.4:1.4#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.60B365X3.80BFR26.18PINMargin at best5.0%Books8Markets45Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:46 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.57	3.60	6.18	7.7%
Dafabet	1.57	3.80	5.60	7.9%
Betano	1.60	3.65	5.30	8.8%
Betfair	1.50	3.80	6.00	9.6%
1xBet	1.51	3.64	5.83	10.9%
Bet365	1.60	3.40	5.25	11.0%
William Hill	1.55	3.40	5.80	11.2%
Marathonbet	1.50	3.64	5.55	12.2%
Best of all books	1.60	3.80	6.18	5.0%
Average	1.55	3.62	5.69	9.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FafeTrofense

Last 10#4Table position#81.60Points per game0.8010Form pts · last 541.6Goals for · last 50.40.8Goals against · last 51.480Attack rating2064Defence rating3667Form rating3320H2H rating80100Goals model053Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 18:32 UTC

Fafe

6W 2D 2L · goals 17:8 · per match 1.7 for, 0.8 against

20 Sep	H	Lajense	4-0	W
13 Sep	A	Paredes	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Leça	3-0	W
29 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-0	W
21 Aug	H	Guimaraes B	1-1	D
16 Aug	A	São João Ver	3-1	W
9 Aug	H	Vianense	0-0	D
31 Jul	H	Maria da Fonte	2-0	W
18 Jul	A	Sanjoanense	1-0	W
15 Jul	A	Chaves	1-4	L

Trofense

1W 4D 5L · goals 5:17 · per match 0.5 for, 1.7 against

12 Sep	H	Leça	1-4	L
5 Sep	A	Guimaraes B	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Varzim	1-5	L
22 Aug	H	São João Ver	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Vianense	0-2	L
9 Aug	H	Varzim	0-1	L
31 Jul	A	AVS	1-1	D
16 May	A	Academica	0-3	L
9 May	H	Guimaraes B	1-1	D
1 May	H	Amarante	0-0	D

Head to head

4Fafe wins

0draws

4Trofense wins

8 meetings · goals 13:15 · last 8: 4W 0D 4L for Fafe

14 Dec 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe1-2Trofense
13 Sep 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense5-1Fafe
14 Dec 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense3-2Fafe
31 Aug 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe1-0Trofense
27 Apr 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe2-3Trofense
24 Feb 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense1-3Fafe
13 Jan 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense0-1Fafe
1 Oct 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe2-1Trofense

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Fafe sit 4th with 8 points from 5 games, while Trofense are 8th with 4 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	5	4	0	1	8:4	+4	12
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	5	0	0	13:2	+11	15
2	AD Marco 09	5	3	1	1	6:3	+3	10
2	Atlético CP	5	3	1	1	8:3	+5	10
3	Varzim	5	3	0	2	8:5	+3	9
3	Oliveirense	5	2	2	1	7:7	0	8
4	Fafe	5	2	2	1	8:4	+4	8
4	Mafra	5	2	1	2	9:5	+4	7
5	Vianense	5	2	2	1	6:5	+1	8
5	Louletano	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7
6	Leça	5	2	1	2	7:8	-1	7
6	Caldas	5	2	1	2	5:5	0	7
7	Guimaraes B	5	1	2	2	4:5	-1	5
7	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	6:10	-4	7
8	Trofense	5	1	1	3	2:7	-5	4
8	SC Covilha	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
9	São João Ver	5	0	3	2	3:6	-3	3
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	1	2	3	4:8	-4	5
10	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	2	3	5:10	-5	2
10	Vitória de Sernache	5	0	1	4	3:13	-10	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg159%1.54X25%3.61216%5.70

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.42 → 1.54 +8.5%X4.00 → 3.61 -9.8%26.76 → 5.70 -15.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.14	1.68	6.3%
Betano	2.00	1.72	8.1%
1xBet	2.04	1.67	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.04	1.67	8.9%
Best of all books	2.14	1.73	4.5%
Average	2.06	1.69	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	2.00	1.70	8.8%
William Hill	2.00	1.70	8.8%
1xBet	2.04	1.66	9.3%
Marathonbet	2.04	1.64	10.0%
Best of all books	2.04	1.70	7.8%
Average	2.02	1.67	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Fafe 45%Draw 45%Trofense 10%

The statistical model rates Fafe at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Trofense at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.54 | 3.61 | 5.70, which imply roughly 64.9% for a Fafe win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Fafe are 4th (8 pts, 8-4 goals), Trofense 8th (4 pts, 2-7).

Over their last five matches, Fafe averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Trofense averaged 0.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Fafe or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.55	3.62	5.69

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.10	2.26	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.22	3.88

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.02	1.68

1st half

1	X	2
2.12	2.13	5.89

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.46	8.50	3.18

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.08
1.5	1.33	2.96
2.5	2.06	1.69
3.5	3.55	1.22
4.5	6.80	1.09
5.5	19.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.40
1.25	1.16	4.05
1.75	1.41	2.62
2	1.55	2.25
2.25	1.82	1.88
2.75	2.39	1.49
3	2.99	1.32
3.25	3.23	1.28
3.75	4.20	1.15
4	6.75	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.70	1.39
-1.25	2.28	1.58
-1	2.01	1.73
-0.75	1.71	2.00
-0.5	1.56	2.40
-0.25	1.34	2.89

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.20	1.01
-3	8.50	1.01
-2.5	5.50	1.08
-2	4.31	1.17
-1.75	3.06	1.31
0	1.16	4.35
+0.25	1.11	4.80
+1.5	1.01	10.0