Varzim vs 
Vianense• Liga 3, Portugal
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2
Average 1X2: 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.67. No per-bookmaker prices for this match.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 18:32 UTC
Varzim
5W 1D 4L · goals 17:11 · per match 1.7 for, 1.1 against
| 19 Sep | A | Vitória de Sernache | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Vianense | 1-2 | L |
| 5 Sep | H | Paredes | 0-1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Trofense | 5-1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Pacos Ferreira | 4-1 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | AD Marco 09 | 2-1 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | Trofense | 1-0 | W |
| 29 Jul | A | Tirsense | 1-0 | W |
| 15 Jul | A | Tondela | 0-1 | L |
| 16 May | A | União Santarém | 2-2 | D |
Vianense
5W 2D 3L · goals 19:10 · per match 1.9 for, 1.0 against
| 20 Sep | A | Estrela Calheta | 3-1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Varzim | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep | H | Pacos Ferreira | 2-2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Minas de Argozelo | 8-0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | AD Marco 09 | 0-2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | Trofense | 2-0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | Fafe | 0-0 | D |
| 29 Jul | A | AVS | 0-3 | L |
| 31 May | H | Rebordosa | 2-0 | W |
| 23 May | A | Bragança | 0-1 | L |
Head to head
2 meetings · goals 4:1 · last 2: 2W 0D 0L for Varzim
| 11 Nov 2023Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Varzim2-0Vianense |
| 13 Aug 2023Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Vianense1-2Varzim |
Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 9 Oct 17:11 UTC
In the Liga 3 table, Varzim sit 3rd with 9 points from 5 games, while Vianense are 5th with 8 points from 5.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:10 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 9.9% margin.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Varzim at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Vianense at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.67, which imply roughly 59.9% for a Varzim win versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Liga 3 table: Varzim are 3rd (9 pts, 8-5 goals), Vianense 5th (8 pts, 6-5).
Over their last five matches, Varzim averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Vianense averaged 1 scored and 1 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Varzim or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.