Paredes vs 
Fafe• Liga 3, Portugal
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 11 Sep 19:05 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.06 | 3.80 | 7.8% |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.08 | 3.74 | 10.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.08 | 3.66 | 11.3% |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 11.4% |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.25 | 11.8% |
| Best of all books | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 3.0% |
| Average | 1.95 | 3.16 | 3.67 | 10.1% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 23:20 UTC
Paredes
8W 0D 2L · goals 24:12 · per match 2.4 for, 1.2 against
| 20 Sep | H | Maria da Fonte | 5-1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Fafe | 2-1 | W |
| 5 Sep | A | Varzim | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Ermesinde | 3-1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Leça | 1-2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Pacos Ferreira | 1-0 | W |
| 7 Aug | H | Guimaraes B | 3-1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | Lusitânia Lourosa | 4-2 | W |
| 22 Jul | A | AVS | 4-2 | W |
| 18 Jul | A | Santa Clara | 0-2 | L |
Fafe
6W 2D 2L · goals 17:8 · per match 1.7 for, 0.8 against
| 20 Sep | H | Lajense | 4-0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Paredes | 1-2 | L |
| 6 Sep | A | Leça | 3-0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Pacos Ferreira | 1-0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | Guimaraes B | 1-1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | São João Ver | 3-1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | Vianense | 0-0 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | Maria da Fonte | 2-0 | W |
| 18 Jul | A | Sanjoanense | 1-0 | W |
| 15 Jul | A | Chaves | 1-4 | L |
Head to head
6 meetings · goals 2:5 · last 6: 0W 3D 3L for Paredes
| 22 Mar 2026Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Fafe1-0Paredes |
| 8 Mar 2026Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Paredes0-0Fafe |
| 29 Nov 2025Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Fafe2-1Paredes |
| 17 Aug 2025Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Paredes1-1Fafe |
| 28 Jan 2023Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Paredes0-1Fafe |
| 9 Oct 2022Liga 3 | Liga 3 | Fafe0-0Paredes |
Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC
In the Liga 3 table, Paredes sit 1st with 12 points from 5 games, while Fafe are 4th with 8 points from 5.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 11.0% margin.
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 1.83 | 5.1% |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 5.3% |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 1.78 | 8.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 1.78 | 8.5% |
| Best of all books | 1.98 | 1.85 | 4.6% |
| Average | 1.94 | 1.81 | 6.9% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.73 | 2.00 | 7.8% |
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 1.94 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 1.91 | 9.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.74 | 2.00 | 7.5% |
| Average | 1.74 | 1.95 | 8.9% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Paredes at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Fafe at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.06 | 2.97 | 3.47, which imply roughly 33.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Liga 3 table: Paredes are 1st (12 pts, 8-4 goals), Fafe 4th (8 pts, 8-4).
Over their last five matches, Paredes averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Fafe averaged 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Fafe.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.95 | 3.16 | 3.67 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | 1.68 | 1.28 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.36 | 3.00 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.74 | 1.95 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 2.10 | 4.32 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | 8.55 | 2.55 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.05 | 8.95 |
| 1.5 | 1.30 | 3.06 |
| 2.5 | 1.94 | 1.81 |
| 3.5 | 3.08 | 1.28 |
| 4.5 | 6.50 | 1.08 |
| 5.5 | 13.0 | 1.03 |
10 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.05 | 6.55 |
| 1.25 | 1.19 | 3.79 |
| 1.75 | 1.34 | 2.88 |
| 2 | 1.44 | 2.50 |
| 2.25 | 1.69 | 2.03 |
| 2.75 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| 3 | 2.60 | 1.41 |
| 3.25 | 2.89 | 1.34 |
| 3.75 | 3.84 | 1.18 |
| 4 | 5.15 | 1.10 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2.55 | 1.53 |
| -0.75 | 2.17 | 1.64 |
| -0.5 | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| -0.25 | 1.74 | 2.00 |
| 0 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
| +0.25 | 1.30 | 3.10 |
8 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 6.90 | 1.04 |
| -2 | 6.15 | 1.06 |
| -1.5 | 3.42 | 1.23 |
| -1.25 | 3.16 | 1.29 |
| +0.5 | 1.26 | 3.65 |
| +0.75 | 1.13 | 4.55 |
| +1 | 1.04 | 6.80 |
| +1.5 | 1.03 | 7.70 |