Caldas vs 
Vitória de Sernache• Liga 3, Portugal
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 11 Sep 19:05 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.17 | 4.36 | 7.7% |
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.08 | 4.14 | 10.1% |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.05 | 3.95 | 11.3% |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.00 | 11.3% |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 2.90 | 4.20 | 12.3% |
| Best of all books | 1.88 | 3.25 | 4.36 | 6.9% |
| Average | 1.86 | 3.09 | 4.13 | 10.5% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Sep 15:24 UTC
Caldas
2W 3D 5L · goals 10:16 · per match 1.0 for, 1.6 against
| 4 Sep | A | União Santarém | 1-0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Sintrense | 1-3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Louletano | 2-4 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0-0 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | CF Os Belenenses | 0-1 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | Academica | 2-2 | D |
| 2 May | A | 1º Dezembro | 1-2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | SC Covilha | 1-1 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | Atlético CP | 0-2 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | Amora | 2-1 | W |
Vitória de Sernache
3W 3D 4L · goals 13:16 · per match 1.3 for, 1.6 against
| 19 Sep | H | Varzim | 2-1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Caldas | 0-2 | L |
| 6 Sep | H | CF Os Belenenses | 1-3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Nazarenos | 3-0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Oliveirense | 2-3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | SC Covilha | 0-0 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | Mafra | 0-5 | L |
| 10 Jun | A | Leça | 1-1 | D |
| 31 May | H | Louletano | 1-1 | D |
| 23 May | A | Atlético Malveira | 3-0 | W |
Head to head
1 meeting · goals 2:1 · last 1: 1W 0D 0L for Caldas
| 3 Nov 2019Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | Vitória de Sernache1-2Caldas |
Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC
In the Liga 3 table, Caldas sit 6th with 7 points from 5 games, while Vitória de Sernache are 10th with 1 points from 5.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:13 | -10 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.9% margin.
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 6.1% |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 1.54 | 7.1% |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 1.55 | 8.6% |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 1.55 | 8.6% |
| Best of all books | 2.37 | 1.65 | 2.8% |
| Average | 2.28 | 1.57 | 7.5% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.05 | 1.70 | 7.6% |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 1.68 | 9.3% |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 1.67 | 9.6% |
| Best of all books | 2.05 | 1.70 | 7.6% |
| Average | 2.02 | 1.68 | 8.8% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Caldas at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Vitória de Sernache at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.03 | 3.11 | 3.39, which imply roughly 49.3% for a Caldas win versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Liga 3 table: Caldas are 6th (7 pts, 5-5 goals), Vitória de Sernache 10th (1 pts, 3-13).
Over their last five matches, Caldas averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game; Vitória de Sernache averaged 0.8 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : Caldas or draw.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | 3.09 | 4.13 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | 1.79 | 1.29 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.33 | 3.25 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.02 | 1.68 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 1.99 | 4.83 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 7.03 | 2.73 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.06 | 7.10 |
| 1.5 | 1.41 | 2.60 |
| 2.5 | 2.28 | 1.57 |
| 3.5 | 4.10 | 1.16 |
| 4.5 | 10.0 | 1.05 |
| 5.5 | 26.0 | 1.01 |
9 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.09 | 5.38 |
| 1.25 | 1.25 | 3.37 |
| 1.75 | 1.53 | 2.29 |
| 2 | 1.72 | 1.97 |
| 2.25 | 2.01 | 1.70 |
| 2.75 | 2.68 | 1.39 |
| 3 | 3.37 | 1.25 |
| 3.25 | 3.74 | 1.19 |
| 4 | 7.30 | 1.03 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.25 | 3.19 | 1.29 |
| -1 | 2.79 | 1.38 |
| -0.75 | 2.15 | 1.61 |
| -0.5 | 1.87 | 1.94 |
| -0.25 | 1.60 | 2.16 |
| 0 | 1.34 | 2.90 |
8 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 7.30 | 1.03 |
| -2 | 6.55 | 1.05 |
| -1.75 | 4.47 | 1.13 |
| -1.5 | 3.46 | 1.23 |
| +0.25 | 1.25 | 3.44 |
| +0.5 | 1.26 | 3.65 |
| +1 | 1.02 | 8.15 |
| +1.5 | 1.01 | 9.00 |