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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory• A-League, Australia

#802:0018/10 · Sky Stadium, Wellington#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.30B365X3.841XB22.211XBMargin at best1.6%Books6Markets68Rating27 · 74

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet3.093.842.213.7%
Pinnacle3.183.812.115.1%
Bet3653.303.502.106.5%
BetVictor3.103.702.106.9%
Marathonbet2.983.702.137.5%
William Hill3.003.502.109.5%
Best of all books3.303.842.211.6%
Average3.113.682.126.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Wellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
Last 10#8Table position#99Form pts · last 5110Attack rating00Defence rating00Form rating020H2H rating800Goals model027Overall rating74

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 13:01 UTC

Wellington Phoenix

4W 2D 4L · goals 10:17 · per match 1.0 for, 1.7 against

24 AprAMacarthur0-4L
18 AprHWestern Sydney Wanderers2-1W
12 AprAMelbourne City0-2L
5 AprAMelbourne Victory1-0W
21 MarABrisbane Roar2-1W
14 MarHPerth Glory2-0W
6 MarAAdelaide United1-1D
1 MarHSydney0-1L
21 FebHAuckland0-5L
13 FebAWestern Sydney Wanderers2-2D

Melbourne Victory

5W 4D 1L · goals 17:6 · per match 1.7 for, 0.6 against

14 OctHFC Seoul3-0W
10 OctASouth Melbourne1-1D
16 SepAViettel1-1D
9 SepASydney2-0W
19 AugAAPIA Leichhardt Tigers1-0W
8 AugAWestern Sydney Wanderers1-1D
26 JulAKingborough Lions4-0W
2 MayHSydney0-1L
25 AprAWestern Sydney Wanderers2-0W
17 AprHNewcastle Jets2-2D

Head to head

12Wellington Phoenix wins
8draws
26Melbourne Victory wins

46 meetings · goals 62:89 · last 10: 3W 2D 5L for Wellington Phoenix

5 Apr 2026A-LeagueA-LeagueMelbourne Victory0-1Wellington Phoenix
6 Feb 2026A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix2-3Melbourne Victory
29 Dec 2025A-LeagueA-LeagueMelbourne Victory5-1Wellington Phoenix
12 Apr 2025A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix2-3Melbourne Victory
14 Feb 2025A-LeagueA-LeagueMelbourne Victory1-0Wellington Phoenix
24 Nov 2024A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix1-0Melbourne Victory
18 May 2024A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix1-2Melbourne Victory
12 May 2024A-LeagueA-LeagueMelbourne Victory0-0Wellington Phoenix
12 Apr 2024A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix1-0Melbourne Victory
19 Jan 2024A-LeagueA-LeagueWellington Phoenix1-1Melbourne Victory

A-League tableA-Leagueupdated 16 Oct 13:20 UTC

In the A-League table, Wellington Phoenix sit 8th with 0 points from 0 games, while Melbourne Victory are 9th with 0 points from 0.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Sydney10100:001
2Western Sydney Wanderers10100:001
3Adelaide United00000:000
4Central Coast Mariners00000:000
5Newcastle Jets00000:000
6Perth Glory00000:000
7Brisbane Roar00000:000
8Wellington Phoenix00000:000
9Melbourne Victory00000:000
10Melbourne City00000:000
11Macarthur00000:000
12Auckland00000:000

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg130%3.11X26%3.67244%2.13

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15 Oct 00:0116 Oct 11:301 3.11X 3.672 2.13
12.91 → 3.11 +6.9%X3.64 → 3.67 +0.8%22.22 → 2.13 -4.1%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.632.363.7%
Pinnacle1.592.375.1%
Marathonbet1.582.297.0%
Bet3651.572.258.1%
BetVictor1.562.248.7%
Best of all books1.632.373.5%
Average1.592.306.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.502.506.7%
William Hill1.532.387.4%
1xBet1.492.448.1%
Marathonbet1.492.408.8%
BetVictor1.472.458.8%
Best of all books1.532.505.4%
Average1.502.437.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Wellington Phoenix 0%Draw 50%Melbourne Victory 50%

The statistical model rates Wellington Phoenix at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Melbourne Victory at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.11 | 3.67 | 2.13, which imply roughly 27.2% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the A-League table: Wellington Phoenix are 8th (0 pts, 0-0 goals), Melbourne Victory 9th (0 pts, 0-0).

Over their last five matches, Wellington Phoenix averaged 0 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Melbourne Victory averaged 0 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Melbourne Victory.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.113.672.13

Double chance

1XX212
1.671.351.26

Draw no bet

12
2.281.57

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.502.43

1st half

1X2
3.482.362.61

2nd half

1X2
3.152.632.40

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 14.8314.023.7
HT X7.436.235.57
HT 229.313.83.23

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.1116.51.74

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0214.2
1.51.154.78
2.51.592.30
3.52.361.51
4.54.261.18
5.58.401.03
6.517.01.02
7.529.01.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0211.5
1.251.056.55
1.751.164.16
21.233.55
2.251.412.75
2.751.722.07
31.901.80
3.252.151.61
3.752.761.35
43.471.23
4.253.921.18
4.755.351.09
57.501.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.252.671.45
02.321.59
+0.251.901.82
+0.51.722.07
+0.751.512.39
+11.333.03
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-210.51.01
-1.758.071.02
-1.56.231.08
-1.255.701.09
-15.321.11
-0.753.741.23
-0.53.141.34
+1.251.273.43
+1.51.213.79
+1.751.134.82
+21.057.20
+2.51.028.10

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.047.15
7.51.134.63
8.51.283.15
9.51.522.36
10.51.841.89
11.52.311.54
12.52.991.31
13.54.131.17
14.55.681.08
15.56.601.05
10 more lines
LineOverUnder
8.751.283.05
9.251.422.60
9.751.552.23
101.692.15
10.251.751.96
10.751.941.75
112.051.76
11.252.221.57
11.752.491.42
12.252.941.32