Nacional AC MG vs 
Venda Nova• Mineiro - 3, Brazil
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 10:44 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.34 | 2.79 | 10.8% |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.34 | 2.72 | 12.2% |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 12.3% |
| Best of all books | 2.22 | 3.40 | 2.79 | 10.3% |
| Average | 2.19 | 3.36 | 2.75 | 11.7% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 05:50 UTC
Nacional AC MG
4W 2D 4L · goals 10:11 · per match 1.0 for, 1.1 against
| 10 Oct | A | Novo Esporte Clube | 0-1 | L |
| 5 Oct | H | Nova Lavras | 2-1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Inter de Minas | 1-0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Santarritense | 3-0 | W |
| 21 Jun | A | Valeriodoce | 2-2 | D |
| 14 Jun | H | North Esporte | 0-3 | L |
| 7 Jun | A | Betim | 0-0 | D |
| 31 May | H | Guarani MG | 2-1 | W |
| 28 May | A | Democrata SL | 0-1 | L |
| 25 May | A | Guarani MG | 0-2 | L |
Venda Nova
3W 1D 0L · goals 13:1 · per match 3.3 for, 0.3 against
| 9 Oct | H | Inter de Minas | 3-0 | W |
| 3 Oct | A | Novo Esporte Clube | 0-0 | D |
| 27 Sep | A | Santarritense | 8-0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Nova Lavras | 2-1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings between Nacional AC MG and Venda Nova on record.
Mineiro - 3 tableMineiro 3updated 17 Oct 17:40 UTC
In the Mineiro - 3 table, Nacional AC MG sit 2nd with 9 points from 4 games, while Venda Nova are 1st with 10 points from 4.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venda Nova | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:1 | +12 | 10 |
| 1 | Betim 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Nacional AC MG | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | +4 | 9 |
| 2 | Paracatu | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:2 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Novo Esporte Clube | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 7 |
| 3 | Sao Joao del Rei | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3:2 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Nova Lavras | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:4 | +14 | 6 |
| 4 | Funorte | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 4 |
| 5 | Inter de Minas | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Araxá | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:5 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Santarritense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:31 | -30 | 0 |
| 6 | Siderurgica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:11 | -9 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.3% margin.
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 5.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 1.74 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 1.74 | 9.0% |
| Best of all books | 2.00 | 1.80 | 5.6% |
| Average | 1.96 | 1.76 | 7.8% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 1.93 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 1.90 | 9.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.75 | 1.93 | 9.0% |
| Average | 1.75 | 1.92 | 9.4% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Nacional AC MG at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Venda Nova at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.19 | 3.36 | 2.75, which imply roughly 29.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Mineiro - 3 table: Nacional AC MG are 2nd (9 pts, 6-2 goals), Venda Nova 1st (10 pts, 13-1).
Over their last five matches, Nacional AC MG averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Venda Nova averaged 3.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Venda Nova.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.19 | 3.36 | 2.75 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | 1.52 | 1.23 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.67 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.75 | 1.92 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.83 | 2.11 | 3.44 |
2nd half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.59 | 2.38 | 3.24 |
HT/FT
| HT / FT | FT 1 | FT X | FT 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1 | 3.70 | 16.5 | 29.5 |
| HT X | 5.65 | 5.05 | 6.65 |
| HT 2 | 26.0 | 16.5 | 4.78 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 9.20 | 2.16 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 1.28 | 3.08 |
| 2.5 | 1.96 | 1.76 |
| 3.5 | 3.34 | 1.24 |
| 4.5 | 6.70 | 1.06 |
9 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.03 | 7.70 |
| 1.75 | 1.35 | 2.74 |
| 2 | 1.46 | 2.38 |
| 2.25 | 1.70 | 1.97 |
| 2.75 | 2.19 | 1.54 |
| 3 | 2.70 | 1.36 |
| 3.25 | 3.04 | 1.29 |
| 3.75 | 4.15 | 1.16 |
| 4 | 5.70 | 1.08 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 3.50 | 1.22 |
| -0.75 | 2.59 | 1.39 |
| -0.25 | 1.93 | 1.76 |
| 0 | 1.66 | 2.03 |
| +0.25 | 1.48 | 2.33 |
| +0.75 | 1.25 | 3.28 |
5 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -2 | 8.60 | 1.01 |
| -1.5 | 4.40 | 1.14 |
| -1.25 | 3.96 | 1.17 |
| +1 | 1.11 | 4.85 |
| +1.5 | 1.07 | 5.75 |