Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara• Premier League, Malta

#32.2:1.82-0FTToday · Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun0.8:1.2#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.63BVCX3.22PIN22.50B365Margin at best9.1%Books5Markets42Rating65 · 35Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 16 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	2.63	3.20	2.50	9.3%
Bet365	2.55	3.20	2.50	10.5%
Pinnacle	2.61	3.22	2.43	10.5%
1xBet	2.60	3.18	2.36	12.3%
Marathonbet	2.60	3.18	2.36	12.3%
Best of all books	2.63	3.22	2.50	9.1%
Average	2.60	3.20	2.43	10.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MarsaxlokkBirkirkara

Last 10#3Table position#82.00Points per game1.4310Form pts · last 542.2Goals for · last 50.81.8Goals against · last 51.273Attack rating2740Defence rating6071Form rating2975H2H rating2570Goals model3065Overall rating35

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 16 Oct 17:01 UTC

Marsaxlokk

4W 3D 3L · goals 13:12 · per match 1.3 for, 1.2 against

10 Oct	H	Zabbar St. Patrick	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Hamrun Spartans	1-4	L
12 Sep	A	Floriana	5-2	W
5 Sep	H	Mosta	1-1	D
28 Aug	A	Valletta FC	2-1	W
21 Aug	H	Hibernians	1-0	W
14 Aug	A	Balzan FC	1-1	D
8 Aug	H	Gzira United	0-1	L
25 Jul	H	Zabbar St. Patrick	0-0	D
16 Jul	A	Pyunik Yerevan	0-1	L

Birkirkara

4W 2D 4L · goals 14:11 · per match 1.4 for, 1.1 against

10 Oct	H	Valletta FC	0-2	L
18 Sep	A	Zabbar St. Patrick	2-0	W
12 Sep	H	Hibernians	1-1	D
6 Sep	A	Sliema Wanderers	1-2	L
30 Aug	A	Mosta	0-1	L
22 Aug	H	Hamrun Spartans	1-0	W
17 Aug	H	Gzira United	4-0	W
25 Jul	H	Sliema Wanderers	2-3	L
18 Jul	H	Zabbar St. Patrick	2-1	W
30 Apr	H	Mosta	1-1	D

Head to head

4Marsaxlokk wins

6draws

2Birkirkara wins

12 meetings · goals 10:9 · last 10: 3W 5D 2L for Marsaxlokk

31 Jan 2026Premier League	Premier League	Birkirkara0-1Marsaxlokk
11 Jan 2026Premier League	Premier League	Marsaxlokk2-1Birkirkara
28 Sep 2025Premier League	Premier League	Marsaxlokk0-0Birkirkara
27 Apr 2025Premier League	Premier League	Birkirkara1-1Marsaxlokk
8 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Birkirkara1-1Marsaxlokk
29 Aug 2024Premier League	Premier League	Marsaxlokk0-2Birkirkara
9 Mar 2024Premier League	Premier League	Marsaxlokk0-0Birkirkara
4 Nov 2023Premier League	Premier League	Birkirkara0-2Marsaxlokk
30 Apr 2023FA Trophy	FA Trophy	Birkirkara2-0Marsaxlokk
5 Mar 2023Premier League	Premier League	Birkirkara1-1Marsaxlokk

Premier League tablePremier Division: First stage - Mainupdated 16 Oct 20:01 UTC

In the Premier League table, Marsaxlokk sit 3rd with 14 points from 7 games, while Birkirkara are 8th with 10 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Valletta FC	7	5	1	1	17:6	+11	16
2	Floriana	7	4	2	1	17:8	+9	14
3	Marsaxlokk	7	4	2	1	13:10	+3	14
4	Mosta	7	3	3	1	10:8	+2	12
5	Hamrun Spartans	7	3	2	2	11:8	+3	11
6	Sliema Wanderers	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
7	Balzan FC	7	2	4	1	10:7	+3	10
8	Birkirkara	7	3	1	3	9:6	+3	10
9	Hibernians	7	1	3	3	6:11	-5	6
10	Zabbar St. Patrick	7	1	2	4	6:11	-5	5
11	Gzira United	7	0	3	4	4:15	-11	3
12	Birzebbuga	7	0	1	6	3:16	-13	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg135%2.60X28%3.20237%2.43

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 9.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.63 → 2.60 -1.1%X3.23 → 3.20 -0.9%22.42 → 2.43 +0.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Pinnacle	1.96	1.80	6.6%
BetVictor	1.91	1.77	8.9%
1xBet	1.90	1.77	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.90	1.77	9.1%
Best of all books	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Average	1.93	1.78	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
1xBet	1.71	1.98	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.71	1.95	9.8%
Best of all books	1.71	2.00	8.5%
Average	1.71	1.98	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Marsaxlokk 45%Draw 45%Birkirkara 10%

The statistical model rated Marsaxlokk at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Birkirkara at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.43, which imply roughly 38.5% for a Marsaxlokk win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Marsaxlokk are 3rd (14 pts, 13-10 goals), Birkirkara 8th (10 pts, 9-6).

Over their last five matches, Marsaxlokk averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Birkirkara averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Marsaxlokk or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.60	3.20	2.43

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.45	1.39	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.88	1.82

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.71	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
3.23	2.09	3.07

2nd half

1	X	2
3.00	2.36	2.73

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.40	15.5	27.0
HT X	6.45	5.10	5.85
HT 2	29.5	15.5	3.85

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.99	9.05	1.96

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	8.68
1.5	1.28	3.19
2.5	1.93	1.78
3.5	3.35	1.25
4.5	6.75	1.07
5.5	15.0	1.02

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	7.80
1.25	1.17	3.91
1.75	1.33	2.87
2	1.46	2.45
2.25	1.69	2.01
2.75	2.17	1.58
3	2.63	1.39
3.25	2.95	1.32
3.75	4.10	1.16
4	5.65	1.08
4.25	5.84	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.58	1.43
-0.25	2.17	1.63
0	1.92	1.79
+0.25	1.67	2.06
+0.5	1.49	2.42
+0.75	1.35	2.82

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.50	1.08
-1.25	5.02	1.11
-1	4.60	1.13
-0.75	3.14	1.28
+1	1.21	3.71
+1.25	1.19	3.99
+1.5	1.11	4.90
+2.5	1.02	9.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.95	1.85