Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#42.6:1.623:00Today · Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero2.6:1.8#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.03DAFX3.98PIN23.50B365Margin at best3.0%Books10Markets80Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L54.3

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 18:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.91	4.08	3.53	5.2%
Bet365	1.95	3.80	3.50	6.2%
Dafabet	2.03	3.80	3.20	6.8%
BetVictor	1.93	3.90	3.25	8.2%
Betano	2.02	3.70	3.05	9.3%
1xBet	1.84	3.75	3.38	10.6%
Betfair	1.91	3.80	3.10	10.9%
William Hill	1.85	3.80	3.25	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.82	3.75	3.30	11.9%
SBO	1.97	3.33	2.93	14.9%
Best of all books	2.03	4.08	3.53	2.1%
Average	1.92	3.77	3.25	9.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Venados FCLeones Negros UDG

Last 10#4Table position#21.73Points per game2.099Form pts · last 5102.6Goals for · last 52.61.6Goals against · last 51.850Attack rating5053Defence rating4747Form rating5350H2H rating5053Goals model4751Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 20:21 UTC

Venados FC

5W 1D 4L · goals 23:21 · per match 2.3 for, 2.1 against

3 Oct	A	CA La Paz	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Monarcas	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Piratas	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Tepatitlán	5-0	W
6 Sep	A	CDS Tampico Madero	3-4	L
29 Aug	A	Tlaxcala	1-3	L
20 Aug	H	Dorados	4-2	W
15 Aug	A	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-5	L
8 Aug	H	Tapatío	3-2	W
1 Aug	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1	D

Leones Negros UDG

6W 2D 2L · goals 23:14 · per match 2.3 for, 1.4 against

4 Oct	H	Dorados	6-3	W
26 Sep	A	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Monarcas	0-2	L
13 Sep	H	CA La Paz	2-2	D
6 Sep	A	Tapatío	3-1	W
30 Aug	H	Piratas	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	Durango	2-1	W
16 Aug	H	CDS Tampico Madero	4-0	W
7 Aug	H	Correcaminos Uat	1-3	L
2 Aug	A	Cancún	2-0	W

Head to head

7Venados FC wins

6draws

9Leones Negros UDG wins

22 meetings · goals 20:30 · last 10: 3W 2D 5L for Venados FC

12 Apr 2026Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Venados FC2-1Leones Negros UDG
2 Nov 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG1-0Venados FC
19 Apr 2025Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG3-1Venados FC
2 Nov 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Venados FC3-0Leones Negros UDG
25 Jan 2024Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Venados FC1-1Leones Negros UDG
17 Aug 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG4-1Venados FC
5 Apr 2023Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Venados FC1-1Leones Negros UDG
29 Oct 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG3-0Venados FC
26 Oct 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Venados FC2-0Leones Negros UDG
8 Aug 2022Liga de Expansión MX	Liga de Expansión MX	Leones Negros UDG4-0Venados FC

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 10 Oct 05:20 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, Venados FC sit 4th with 19 points from 11 games, while Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 23 points from 11.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CA La Paz	12	7	2	3	28:15	+13	23
2	Leones Negros UDG	11	7	2	2	27:16	+11	23
3	Monarcas	12	7	2	3	22:13	+9	23
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26:21	+5	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16:10	+6	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	23:19	+4	17
7	Cancún	11	5	2	4	19:15	+4	17
8	Durango	11	5	2	4	11:11	0	17
9	Correcaminos Uat	12	4	4	4	20:20	0	16
10	Tapatío	11	4	2	5	19:19	0	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13
12	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	12	4	1	7	10:23	-13	13
13	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12
14	CDS Tampico Madero	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11:18	-7	8
16	Tepatitlán	11	2	1	8	9:30	-21	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%1.94X24%3.75228%3.21

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.89 → 1.94 +2.6%X3.79 → 3.75 -1.1%23.28 → 3.21 -2.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.46	2.72	5.3%
BetVictor	1.44	2.63	7.5%
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
Betfair	1.44	2.60	7.9%
Betano	1.47	2.47	8.5%
1xBet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Best of all books	1.47	2.72	4.8%
Average	1.44	2.59	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.44	2.60	7.9%
Betfair	1.36	2.88	8.3%
1xBet	1.40	2.70	8.5%
BetVictor	1.40	2.70	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.40	2.64	9.3%
Betano	1.42	2.57	9.3%
Best of all books	1.44	2.88	4.2%
Average	1.40	2.68	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Venados FC 33%Draw 33%Leones Negros UDG 33%

The statistical model rates Venados FC at 33% to win, the draw at 33% and Leones Negros UDG at 33% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.94 | 3.75 | 3.21, which imply roughly 51.5% for a Venados FC win versus the model's 33%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: Venados FC are 4th (19 pts, 26-21 goals), Leones Negros UDG 2nd (23 pts, 27-16).

Over their last five matches, Venados FC averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Leones Negros UDG averaged 2.6 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: No predictions available.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.92	3.77	3.25

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.78	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.47	2.47

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.40	2.68

1st half

1	X	2
2.40	2.46	3.53

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.65	18.3	2.22

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	16.3
1.5	1.11	5.44
2.5	1.44	2.59
3.5	2.11	1.65
4.5	3.49	1.25
5.5	6.47	1.08

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	11.5
1.25	1.06	6.84
1.75	1.10	5.05
2	1.13	4.55
2.25	1.27	3.14
2.75	1.52	2.34
3	1.67	2.07
3.25	1.89	1.83
3.75	2.37	1.50
4	2.83	1.33
4.25	3.14	1.27
4.75	4.25	1.15
5	5.70	1.08
5.25	6.05	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.82	1.37
-1	2.51	1.46
-0.75	2.11	1.65
-0.5	1.94	1.84
-0.25	1.67	2.11
0	1.44	2.61

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	11.0	1.05
-3	10.0	1.01
-2.5	5.93	1.09
-2.25	5.53	1.10
-2	5.07	1.12
-1.75	3.77	1.21
-1.5	3.10	1.32
+0.25	1.35	2.97
+0.5	1.31	3.48
+0.75	1.18	4.15
+1	1.09	5.92
+1.25	1.07	6.33
+1.5	1.07	6.77

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.02	6.99
7.5	1.14	4.19
8.5	1.34	2.84
9.5	1.61	2.12
10.5	2.00	1.72
11.5	2.58	1.40
12.5	3.50	1.22
13.5	5.06	1.08

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.02	6.72
7	1.03	6.45
7.25	1.09	5.01
7.75	1.16	3.98
8	1.18	3.78
8.25	1.26	3.21
8.75	1.38	2.69
9	1.43	2.54
9.25	1.53	2.31
9.75	1.70	2.03
10	1.81	1.93
10.25	1.90	1.80
10.75	2.14	1.62
11	2.31	1.52
11.25	2.44	1.47
11.75	2.82	1.34
12	3.18	1.27
12.25	3.34	1.24
12.75	3.97	1.16
13	4.69	1.11
13.25	4.88	1.10