OddsFilter

CA La Paz vs Venados FC• Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

#22.6:1.01-2FT03/10 · Estadio Guaycura, La Paz2.4:2.0#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.62B365X5.231XB24.85MARMargin at best1.5%Books7Markets52Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 29 Sep 02:30 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle1.574.404.757.5%
Betano1.574.154.709.1%
Betfair1.534.404.609.8%
Bet3651.554.104.7510.0%
1xBet1.534.254.6210.5%
William Hill1.554.204.4011.1%
Marathonbet1.514.254.5511.7%
Best of all books1.574.404.757.5%
Average1.544.254.629.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CA La PazVenados FC
Last 10#2Table position#41.92Points per game1.6710Form pts · last 592.6Goals for · last 52.41.0Goals against · last 52.052Attack rating4867Defence rating3368Form rating3262H2H rating3880Goals model2064Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 14 Oct 18:32 UTC

CA La Paz

7W 2D 1L · goals 26:10 · per match 2.6 for, 1.0 against

9 OctATapatío4-2W
3 OctHVenados FC1-2L
25 SepAAlebrijes de Oaxaca3-1W
19 SepHCorrecaminos Uat3-1W
13 SepALeones Negros UDG2-2D
5 SepHMineros de Zacatecas3-0W
28 AugACancún2-1W
22 AugHCruz Azul Hidalgo1-1D
15 AugHPiratas2-0W
8 AugATepatitlán5-0W

Venados FC

5W 1D 4L · goals 23:21 · per match 2.3 for, 2.1 against

3 OctACA La Paz2-1W
26 SepHMonarcas2-1W
19 SepAPiratas1-2L
12 SepHTepatitlán5-0W
6 SepACDS Tampico Madero3-4L
29 AugATlaxcala1-3L
20 AugHDorados4-2W
15 AugAMineros de Zacatecas1-5L
8 AugHTapatío3-2W
1 AugACruz Azul Hidalgo1-1D

Head to head

5CA La Paz wins
2draws
4Venados FC wins

11 meetings · goals 18:17 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for CA La Paz

31 Jan 2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz1-0Venados FC
23 Aug 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXVenados FC3-3CA La Paz
8 Feb 2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXVenados FC2-1CA La Paz
24 Aug 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz1-1Venados FC
27 Apr 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXVenados FC2-3CA La Paz
25 Apr 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz3-1Venados FC
10 Apr 2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz0-1Venados FC
12 Nov 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXVenados FC1-0CA La Paz
12 Aug 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXVenados FC1-3CA La Paz
29 Mar 2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MXCA La Paz3-2Venados FC

Liga de Expansión MX tablePrimera A: Aperturaupdated 14 Oct 03:00 UTC

In the Liga de Expansión MX table, CA La Paz sit 2nd with 23 points from 12 games, while Venados FC are 4th with 20 points from 12.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Leones Negros UDG1273228:17+1124
2CA La Paz1272328:15+1323
3Monarcas1272322:13+923
4Venados FC1262427:22+520
5Mineros de Zacatecas1253425:21+418
6Cancún1253421:17+418
7Piratas1253418:14+418
8Durango1253411:11018
9Correcaminos Uat1244420:20016
10Tlaxcala1243523:25-215
11Tapatío1142519:19014
12Dorados1234521:23-213
13Alebrijes de Oaxaca1241710:23-1313
14CDS Tampico Madero1233612:19-712
15Cruz Azul Hidalgo1225514:19-511
16Tepatitlán112189:30-217

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg160%1.53X20%4.54220%4.58

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

30 Sep 00:013 Oct 01:111 1.53X 4.552 4.61
11.54 → 1.53 -0.6%X4.25 → 4.55 +7.1%24.62 → 4.61 -0.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.382.897.1%
Bet3651.402.757.8%
1xBet1.332.8310.5%
Marathonbet1.332.8310.5%
Betano1.362.6511.3%
Best of all books1.402.896.0%
Average1.362.799.4%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.442.627.6%
1xBet1.412.668.5%
Marathonbet1.412.609.4%
Betano1.422.4710.9%
Best of all books1.442.667.0%
Average1.422.599.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

CA La Paz 45%Draw 45%Venados FC 10%

The statistical model rated CA La Paz at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Venados FC at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.53 | 4.54 | 4.58, which imply roughly 65.4% for a CA La Paz win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga de Expansión MX table: CA La Paz are 2nd (23 pts, 28-15 goals), Venados FC 4th (20 pts, 27-22).

Over their last five matches, CA La Paz averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Venados FC averaged 2.4 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : CA La Paz or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.544.254.62

Double chance

1XX212
1.152.261.17

Draw no bet

12
1.253.55

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.422.59

1st half

1X2
1.992.624.58

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.4822.02.55

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0117.5
1.51.095.85
2.51.362.79
3.51.911.79
4.52.951.32
5.55.071.12
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0112.5
1.751.075.80
21.095.30
2.251.213.58
2.751.402.56
31.522.31
3.251.721.98
3.752.131.61
42.491.45
4.252.741.35
4.753.581.21
54.701.12
5.255.051.10

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.401.49
-1.252.141.61
-11.891.83
-0.751.672.04
-0.51.572.37
-0.251.382.74
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.58.301.02
-37.501.03
-2.755.301.09
-2.54.201.15
-2.253.841.18
-23.601.23
-1.752.811.36
01.223.65
+0.251.164.05
+0.751.075.85
+1.51.038.10