Baglan DragonsvsCaerau (Ely)• FAW Championship,Wales
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Baglan Dragons5th7 pts
Caerau (Ely)11th4 pts
Baglan Dragons5th7 pts
Caerau (Ely)11th4 ptsIn the FAW Championship table, Baglan Dragons sit 5th with 7 points from 4 games, while Caerau (Ely) are 11th with 4 points from 4 — the full standings are below.
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Baglan Dragons at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Caerau (Ely) at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.79 | 4.03 | 1.55, which imply roughly 24.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the FAW Championship table: Baglan Dragons are 5th (7 pts, 2-3 goals), Caerau (Ely) 11th (4 pts, 9-12).
Over their last five matches, Baglan Dragons averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Caerau (Ely) averaged 2.3 scored and 3 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Caerau (Ely) and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) — model comparison
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Form & Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea University | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 |  Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Newport City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Afan Lido | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 |  Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 |  Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 |  Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 |  llanelli AFC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Betting Odds
Full time
1
4.20
X
3.97
2
1.64
Double chance
1X
2.07
X2
1.17
12
1.18
Both teams to score
Yes
1.59
No
2.17
Match goals
Over 2.5
1.58
Under 2.5
2.22
Over 1.5
1.15
Under 1.5
4.20
Over 1.75
1.18
Under 1.75
3.86
Over 2
1.23
Under 2
3.42
Over 2.25
1.40
Under 2.25
2.62
Over 2.75
1.71
Under 2.75
1.97
Over 3.5
2.41
Under 3.5
1.46
Over 3
1.89
Under 3
1.74
Over 4.5
4.10
Under 4.5
1.16
Over 3.25
2.15
Under 3.25
1.56
Over 3.75
2.81
Under 3.75
1.33
Over 4
3.50
Under 4
1.22
Under 0.5
11.50
Over 5.5
8.00
Under 5.5
1.05
Draw no bet
1
3.08
2
1.30
Asian handicap
Home -0.5
3.70
Away -0.5
1.67
1st half
1
4.40
X
2.37
2
2.13
First team to score
Home
2.57
No Goal
16.25
Away
1.49